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Vietnam’s approach to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Dao Ngoc Tien (PhD)

Vietnam’s approach to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Dao Ngoc Tien (PhD) Foreign Trade University Email: dntien@ftu.edu.vn University of Melbourne , May 2013. Vietnam’s approach to the TPP. Overview on Vietnam’s participation in TPP Overall impact of the TPP Specific issues

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Vietnam’s approach to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Dao Ngoc Tien (PhD)

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  1. Vietnam’s approach to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Dao Ngoc Tien (PhD) Foreign Trade University Email: dntien@ftu.edu.vn University of Melbourne, May 2013

  2. Vietnam’s approach to the TPP • Overview on Vietnam’s participation in TPP • Overall impact of the TPP • Specific issues The presentation reflects personal opinions of the presenter, not of any government, institutions

  3. Overview on Vietnam’s participation in the TPP

  4. Vietnam’s approach to the TPP What Vietnam can gain from the TPP? GDP growth and more international trade but create winners and losers Momentum for further reform but strong determination and preparation

  5. The gains from TPP by countriesApplication of CGE model

  6. The gains from TPP by countriesApplication of CGE model FTAAP TPP & RCEP TPP only RCEP only

  7. The gains from TPP by countriesApplication of CGE model

  8. The gains from TPP by countriesApplication of CGE model

  9. The gains from TPP by countriesApplication of gravity model Ln(EXvnjt)= 8.652296+ 0.501469Ln(Yvnt*Yjt) + 1.091872Ln (POPvnt*POPjt) -1.817045Ln(DISvnjt) + 0.000174ERvnjt- 0.145798Tvnjt(1) Ln(IMvnjt)= -0.134178+ 0.890556 (YVNt*Yjt) + 1.189474Ln(POPvnt*POPjt) -0.353488Ln(DISvnjt) + 0.000132ERvnjt - 0.593056Tvnjt (2)

  10. Expectation of enterprise on export growth from TPP

  11. Expectation of enterprise on import growth from TPP

  12. Overall impact of the TPP:momentum for reform • Overall impact of the TPP • Specific issues

  13. Overall impact of the TPP:momentum for reform Vietnam’s international integration milestones: 1986: began “Doimoi” – economic reform policy 1995: joined Association of South East Asia Nations – ASEAN 2007: joined the WTO ---- : FTAs with big partners?

  14. Overall impact of the TPP:momentum for reform

  15. Overall impact of the TPP

  16. Overall impact of the TPP What Vietnam can gain from the TPP? GDP growth and more international trade but create winners and losers Momentum for further reform but strong determination and preparation Possible of accelerated negotiation Taken into account the current status of Vietnam (flexibilities, exceptions, transition periods,..)

  17. Specific issues • Tariff elimination, RoO • Labour and trade union • IPs and pharmaceuticals

  18. Tariff elimination 100% tariff elimination P4: ALL and IMMEDIATELY Infant industry argument + WTO’s principles + reality of Vietnam’s FTAs  Require a phasing periods: + second-hand automobiles + WTO’s tariff quota list: tobacco leaf, sugar, salt and egg + meat, diary products (see AANZFTA)

  19. Vietnam’s tariff reduction in FTAs

  20. Tariff elimination Rules of Origin: yarn forward closely together with tariff reduction for garment in the US current value chain of garment products in Vietnam Fabric from non-TPP countries  Export to the US Possibilities of loosening yarn-forward rule: + short provision + bridging period

  21. Labour and trade union ILO’s principles current ones: Vietnam has already signed future ones: unpredictable, should not be bound Working conditions Freedom to establish labour union / association

  22. IPs and pharmaceuticals IP protection need to be balanced with the need of developing countries. WTO’s Declaration on the TRIPS agreement and public health adopted on 14 November 2001 Grant a patent for new forms, uses, or methods of using a known product;  Create difficult for patents to access public health care.

  23. Vietnam’s approach to the TPP Thank you! Q&A

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