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JRC – P. Barbosa and J. Vogt PIK – F. Hattermann and S. Fournet UPORTO – R. Maia and J.P. Pego

DEWFORA Kick-off meeting Work-package 6 (Coordinator JRC) Implementation of improved methodologies in comparative case studies. JRC – P. Barbosa and J. Vogt PIK – F. Hattermann and S. Fournet UPORTO – R. Maia and J.P. Pego NFC – M. E. Elshamy and Mohamed Ahmed

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JRC – P. Barbosa and J. Vogt PIK – F. Hattermann and S. Fournet UPORTO – R. Maia and J.P. Pego

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  1. DEWFORA Kick-off meetingWork-package 6 (Coordinator JRC)Implementation of improved methodologies in comparative case studies JRC – P. Barbosa and J. Vogt PIK – F. Hattermann and S. Fournet UPORTO – R. Maia and J.P. Pego NFC – M. E. Elshamy and Mohamed Ahmed IAV – A.S. Bennasser, Y. Imani, and O. Lahlou WATERNET – D. Love and J.-M. Kileshye-Onema

  2. WP6. Implementation of improved methodologies in comparative case studies • OUTLINE of PRESENTATION • Main Objectives • • Case Studies • • Tasks 6.1 to 6.6 • Effort in Person-month by Participant and by Task • Deliverables and Timing • Planning for 2011 • Challenges and Risks

  3. WP6 Main Objectives • • Case studies will serve as demonstration sites for the implementation of the improved methodologies developed in work packages 3, 4, and 5 • • A pre-operational pan-African system for drought monitoring and forecasting will be developed and tested. • • A comparative review of drought forecasting in Europe and Africa will be done. • Relations exist with work packages 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8(?).

  4. WP6 – 4 Case Studies + Pan-African

  5. WP6 Tasks • Task 6.1: Eastern Nile Basin • (Partners: MWRI-NFC-NBCBN, IHE, ECMWF, GFZ, DCER. Months 1 – 30) • Task 6.2: Limpopo Basin • (Partner: WaterNet, IHE, GFZ, UEM, WRNA, CSIR. Months 1 – 30) • Task 6.3: Oum-er-Rbia Basin • (Partner: IAV, UPORTO, CSIR. Months 1 – 30) • Task 6.4: Niger River basin • (Partner: PIK, IHE, WI. Months 1 – 30) • Task 6.5 Development and testing of a Pan-African forecasting system • (Partner: JRC, DELTARES, IHE, ECMWF, ICPAC. Months 1 – 34) • Task 6.6 Drought forecasting: EU/Africa perspectives • (Partner: UPORTO, JRC, MWRI-NFC-NBCBN , IAV, WRNA. Months 12 – 34)

  6. Task 6.1 Eastern Nile Basin • MWRI-NFC-NBCBN: Mohamed Elshamy, Mohamed Ahmed • IHE: Shreedhar Maskey, Patricia Trambauer, Marloes Mul • ECMWF: Florian Pappenberger, Emanuel Dutra • GFZ: Heiko Apel, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, José Miguel Delgado • DCER: Elftatih Eltahir, Mudathir Zaroug • AIM: • to provide and test all the improved tools for drought warning and prediction of the effect of climate change on drought risk in the region. The study will focus on the Blue Nile and Atbara River basins. • ROLES and RESPONSIBILITIES: • TBD during Kick-off meeting

  7. Task 6.1 Eastern Nile Basin • OBJECTIVES: • Conduct statistical (e.g. based on ENSO) and dynamical seasonal forecasting in the Blue Nile and Atbara Basins (linked to Task 4.1) • Pilot the methods to produce a seasonal drought warning, combining indicators, thresholds and model outputs from meteorological models and hydrological models (WP 3 and 4). NFC already has hydrological models, and these will be used as a starting point in this case study. • Pilot the methods to identify the effects of climate change on drought risk using climate projections and vulnerability maps from WP 3. • Recommend methods for strengthening drought preparedness and improving farming practices in response to drought in the Blue Nile basin.

  8. Task 6.2: Limpopo Basin • WaterNet: David Love, Jean-Marie Kileshye-Onema • IHE: Shreedhar Maskey, Patricia Trambauer, Marloes Mul • GFZ: Heiko Apel, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha, José Miguel Delgado • UEM: Nelson Matsinhe, Jaime Palalane • WRNA: Washy Nyabeze, Mike Kubare, Mike Tumbare • CSIR: Francois Engelbrecht, William Landman • AIM: • The focus in this case study is on the flow of information during drought early warning. Information will be generated by the forecasting system developed in WP 4. This information will flow from the warning system through the institutional framework from regional to local scale. The Limpopo is therefore a pilot for the application of DEWFORA’s drought early warning framework. In close collaboration with other stakeholders in the region, improvements in the institutional framework and procedures will be suggested and implemented, building on the technical developments. • ROLES and RESPONSIBILITIES: • TBD during Kick-off meeting

  9. Task 6.2: Limpopo Basin • OBJECTIVES: • Implement improvements to existing monitoring and forecasting systems and drought mitigation policies by coupling meteorological, hydrological and agricultural forecasting tools into a water allocation model (WP 4). • Pilot the drought early warning framework by identification and involvement of the end-users and analyze how the issued warnings flow through the institutional structure. The piloting will reveal potential shortcomings in the institutional structure, which will result in recommendations for improvement.

  10. Task 6.3: Oum-er-Rbia Basin • IAV: A.S. Bennasser, Y. Imani, and O. Lahlou • UPORTO: Rodrigo Maia, Joao Pedro Pêgo • CSIR: Francois Engelbrecht, William Landman • AIM: • The aim of this case study is to further agricultural drought forecasting by means of the newly developed indicators (WP 3) and model techniques (WP 4). First of all the seasonal forecasting of agricultural drought in the basin will be improved to gain lead time for effective drought mitigation. Second, recommendations will be made how to reduce vulnerability through the implementation of better adapted agricultural practices. The case study will be led by IAV and will capitalize on the results from the MEDROPLAN project (MEDA-Water). • ROLES and RESPONSIBILITIES: • TBD during Kick-off meeting

  11. Task 6.3: Oum-er-Rbia Basin • OBJECTIVES: • Test improved agricultural drought indicators (WP 3) and forecasting of agricultural drought (WP 4) • Transfer drought forecasts to drought warnings according to the framework developed in WP 5. • Pilot and analyze the effectiveness of adapted agricultural practices on vulnerability.

  12. Task 6.4: Niger River basin • Partners: • PIK: Fred Hattermann, Samuel Fournet • IHE: Shreedhar Maskey, Patricia Trambauer, Marloes Mul • WISO: Bakary KONE, Nicolas Tubbs, Chris Baker, Jaime Garcia Moreno • AIM: • The aim of this case study is to provide a climate projection for the region to strengthen preparedness to droughts and in this way improve future food security (WP 5, Task 5.3). The implementation of this case study will be closely linked to the WETwin project (FP7). • ROLES and RESPONSIBILITIES: • TBD during Kick-off meeting

  13. Task 6.4: Niger River basin • OBJECTIVES: • Application of a mesoscale distributed eco-hydrological modelcombining hydrology and agriculture (and other vegetation types). • Pilot the drought preparednessby predicting future hydrological and agricultural drought risk through climate projections using model outputs from WP 3 and 4. • Trade-off upstream – downstream managementwith one focus on the Inner Nile Delta

  14. Task 6.5 Development and testing of a Pan-African forecasting system • JRC: Paulo Barbosa, Jürgen Vogt, N.N. • DELTARES: Micha Werner, Sophie Vermooten • IHE: Shreedhar Maskey, Patricia Trambauer, Marloes Mul • ECMWF: Florian Pappenberger, Emanuel Dutra • ICPAC: Ouma Gilbert • AIM: • The aim of this case study is to develop and test a pre-operational system for drought monitoring and forecasting in Africa at the continental scale, using medium-range, monthly and seasonal probabilistic forecasts. For the implementation of this case study the project will capitalize on the experience gained by JRC with the development of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) and with the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), as well as with pilot studies on flood and drought early warning in the Horn of Africa. This will provide at the same time, the opportunity to compare the two systems. • ROLES and RESPONSIBILITIES: • TBD during Kick-off meeting

  15. Task 6.5 Development and testing of a Pan-African forecasting system • OBJECTIVES: • Collection of meteorological and ancillary data needed for implementation of the case study. • Development and testing of drought indicators at Pan-African scale. From the drought indicators and extreme forecast indices developed in Task 3.1, the ones suitable for Pan-African scale will be selected and tested. • Risk assessment by integration of vulnerability and hazard at Pan-African level. Indicators for vulnerability and hazard estimates will be integrated in this task by using the tools and results produced in WP 3. The selected global models (ECMWF for meteorology and the selected hydrological model from WaterMIP) will be used in order to produce current Pan–African vulnerability and risk maps as well as future projections. • Integration of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought forecasts at Pan-African level into an African drought map server. The results produced in WP4 will be integrated in this task to produce Pan–African drought forecasts and integrated with the results from the case studies at different spatial scales. • Development and implementation of the African drought map server. This server will contain all the products created in the previous tasks. Products from different spatial scales, going from continental to regional will be integrated by the map server.

  16. Task 6.6 Drought forecasting: EU/Africa perspectives • UPORTO: Rodrigo Maia, Joao Pedro Pêgo • JRC: Paulo Barbosa, Jürgen Vogt, N.N. • MWRI-NFC-NBCBN : Mohamed Elshamy, Mohamed Ahmed • IAV: A.S. Bennasser, Y. Imani, and O. Lahlou • WRNA: Washy Nyabeze, Mike Kubare, Mike Tumbare • AIMS: • Comparative review of drought forecasting in European and African river basins. • Evaluation of the implementation of the newly proposed methodologies to selected African river basins • Guidelines for bilateral improvement of forecasting methods • ROLES and RESPONSIBILITIES: • TBD during Kick-off meeting

  17. Task 6.6 Drought forecasting: EU/Africa perspectives • Trends on drought monitoring and early warning systems in Europe. Capitalizes from previous (e.g. MEDROPLAN, AquaStress, Watch, CIRCE) and ongoing (XEROCHORE, MIRAGE, CLIMB, WASSERMed) projects. Focus on river basins from Southern Europe (e.g.,from Portugal, Spain and Greece). • Performance of improved drought monitoring and early warning systems in Africa. Uses the output from WP2 and WP5 and the results from the regional case studies (Tasks 6.1 to 6.5) • Comparison of drought forecasting in Europe and Africa • OBJECTIVES:

  18. Effort in Person-month by Participant

  19. Effort in Person-month by Task

  20. WP6 – Deliverables and Timing

  21. WP6 - Planning for year 2011 • D6.1: • Inception report for each case study: For each regional case study (Task 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 and 6.4), an inception report will be delivered in Month 10 (October 2011). Besides general descriptions of the case study area, this report will contain information, tailored to the specific case study objectives such as the current problems related to drought, the available hydro-meteorological data to be used throughout the case study, drought management practices and stakeholders involved in drought management. • This report is needed as input for WP 2, 3 and 4.

  22. WP6 - Planning for year 2011 • January-October 2011: • Assess the existing drought monitoring and forecasting networks, practices and capacities in the region and provide this information to WP 2. • Synthesize the current state of the art of climate research in the basin. • Identify key stakeholders in the region to be invited to participate in the Stakeholders Platform and provide this information to WP 7. • Identify and maintain contact with end-users throughout the project. • Collect case specific meteorological and ground data needed for implementation of the case study, provide this information to WP 4. • Collect information on regional water resourcesuse for identification of indicator thresholds in WP 3. • Collection of meteorological and ancillary data needed for implementation of Task 6.5. • October 2011-December 2011 • Investigate the applicability of the methodologies developed in WP 4 • Development and testing of drought indicators at Pan-African scale (Task 6.5) with input from Task 3.1. • Task 6.6 will start in December 2011

  23. WP6 – Challenges and risks • Challenges: • To really tailor the work to the needs of the local people • Communication of uncertainty in any scenario results • Promote exchanges between stakeholders and decision-makers • Exchange information with other ongoing projects

  24. WP6 – Challenges and risks • Risks: • Data accessibility and missing data management • After the inception report on month 10 no other deliverables were foreseen for each regional case studies until the final report on month 30 (June 2013) • There is a need to establish milestones for each regional case study between month 10 and month 30 • Broad range of regional specificities in Africa. The case studies are not all addressing the same issues. There is a need to define intermediate Task Meetings in order to better steer and harmonize the case studies • The WP6 coordinator should put some effort (person-month) following the case studies (proposal shown in previous Table)

  25. WP6 – Challenges and risks • Risks (cont.): • WP6provides information but is also dependent from other work packages (WP2, WP3, WP4 and WP5) • Task 6.6 is dependent from other case-studies (Tasks 6.1 to 6.5) • Task 6.5 is partially dependent from other case-studies (Tasks 6.1 to 6.4)

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