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10 copies. Performance Review. Prepared for : National Contract Management Association November 13, 2011. W. Todd Ripley, CTFA SVP & Senior Investment Manager Wells Fargo Private Bank – Western Carolinas Region 864.467.2836 telephone todd.ripley@wellsfargo.com. Frank N. Wilson
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10 copies Performance Review Prepared for: National Contract Management Association November 13, 2011 W. Todd Ripley, CTFA SVP & Senior Investment Manager Wells Fargo Private Bank – Western Carolinas Region 864.467.2836 telephone todd.ripley@wellsfargo.com Frank N. Wilson SVP & Wealth Advisor Wells Fargo Private Bank 864.255.8233 frank.wilson@wellsfargo.com
Table of Contents I. Relationship Summary II. Market Overview III. Asset Allocation & Performance Summary 2 2
Relationship Summary • Established: • June 10, 2005 (NCMA Unrestricted Reserve Funds) (Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. DDA Account) • May 1, 2006 (NCMA Restricted Reserve Funds) (Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. serves as Investment Manager) • Investment Objective: • 60% Equity • Harbor Capital Appreciation (Lg. Cap. Growth), Federated Strategic Value Dividend, iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend, Davis New York Venture (Lg. Cap Value), iShares Russell Midcap Index Fd. Boston Company Small Cap Value, iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap Growth Fd., AIM International Growth, Harbor International, Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets (All Shares Institutional Class) • 40% Fixed Income • Western Asset Core Plus Bond Fd., Vanguard Short Term Bond Index, PIMCO High Yield Bond Fd., PIMCO Foreign Bond Fd., and Wells Fargo Advantage Treasury Plus Institutional Money Market • Asset allocation for Unrestricted Reserve Fund (short term) accordance with current National Contract Management Association Investment Policy Guidelines. Currently 100% Institutional Depository Account for Non-Profit Organizations. Interest Calculated based upon the average 4 week 90-day Treasury Bill. Rates are set monthly. Current earnings credit .40% • Statements/Tax Reporting: • Monthly & Annual statements Sam Smith (CFO) for further distribution to AMC • Annual 1099 provided • Distributions/Spending Policy: • Spending Policy as directed by Board approval (NCMA Restricted Reserve Fund) • Investment Reporting: • Quarterly Investment Performance and Market Updates • Formal presentations (semi-annually) • Fees: • Wachovia Trust/Nonprofit & Philanthropic Services Institutional Fee Schedule (Equity & Balanced): 65 basis points on the first $5MM, 45 bps on the next $10mm, 30 bps on the next $30mm,and 20 bps on balance. Equates to approx 65 bps based on market value. 4 4
Market Overview November 2011
U.S. Economic Overview The economy is sending mixed signals; confidence dropped, but retail rose. Confidence Falls Sharply • Consumer confidence sank in October, dropping more than 5 points to 39.8. The index is at its lowest point since March of 2009. Consumers expressed significant pessimism about their current situation, and only 9.1 percent think business conditions will improve over the next six months. • New home sales increased 5.7 percent in September to an annualized rate of 313,000 units. Even so, sales have fallen about one percent since last year. If sales continue at the current rate, it would take 6.2 months’ to clear the supply now on the market. • Existing home sales fell 3.0 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.91 million units. Failed contracts continue to plague this market and are now double the level seen last year. • Durable goods orders fell 0.8 percent in September, reflecting a large drop in civilian aircraft orders. Excluding aircraft, non-defense durable goods orders rose a healthy 2.4 percent. • An uptick in auto sales and strong back-to-school sales helped retailers much more than expected, with sales increasing 1.1 percent from August to September. March, 2009 Confidence 26.9 Consumer Confidence Index October Confidence 39.8 Retail Sales Strengthen September Retail Sales Rise 1.1% Percent Increase (M/M) Sources: Bloomberg Finance, LLC, FactSet, (11/11) 6
U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. economy is probably strong enough for the recovery to continue. Third Quarter GDP Rises • The U.S. economy is estimated to have grown 2.5 percent in the third quarter. Economic growth in the fourth quarter growth is expected to be around 2 percent. • The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.2 percent in September, pointing to continued slow growth. • In October, 80,000 new jobs were created, pushing the unemployment rate down one-tenth of a percent to 9.0 percent. Weekly unemployment claims have been hovering around the 400,000 level. For meaningful improvement in the unemployment rate, new claims will have to fall further. • The Institute for Supply ManagementTM (ISM) Manufacturing survey fell to 50.8 in October from 51.6 in September. New orders increased while prices dropped 15 points to 41, reflecting a sizable drop in the price of certain raw materials. A 5 point drop in inventories is likely the result of continuing caution and uncertainty among survey participants. • The ISM Non-Manufacturing survey was nearly flat with a reading of 52.9 in October versus 53.0 in September. Encouragingly, the employment index gained more than four points. The overall index is indicating modest growth in the service sector. Annualized Quarterly Change Source: Consensus Estimates, Bloomberg Financial, LLP, (11/11) ISM Surveys Still Expanding ISM Surveys Expansion Contraction Sources: Bloomberg Finance, LLP, FactSet, (11/11) 7
Economic Outlook - International The Euro Zone’s economic problems are becoming increasingly complicated. Euro Zone Growth May Slow Further • Under the leadership of a new head, Mario Draghi of Italy, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a point from 1.5 percent to 1.25 percent. • Following months of negotiations among its 17 members, the European Union reached an agreement to provide 100 billion euros in additional funding for Greece. The group also agreed to increase the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from 440 billion to as much as 1 trillion euros through insurance and/or leverage. • In a decision that ultimately cost him his leadership, Greece’s former Prime Minister George Papandreou, announced that he planned to take the EU agreement to a public referendum, surprising EU leaders and his own party. • In an attempt to aid the recovery of its export sector, Japanese policy makers intervened in the currency markets to drive yen prices lower. • Interest rates on 10-year Italian sovereign debt have risen to more than seven percent, the rate at which Greece, Ireland and Portugal requested assistance with their debt. Italy’s Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, is expected to resign and a new administration may alleviate pressure on the country’s bond markets. Actual Estimated Annualized Quarterly Change Source: Consensus Estimates, Bloomberg Financial, LLP, (11/11) Italian Interest Rates Rising Nov. 9, 2011 7.11% 10 Year Government Bond Yields Sources: Bloomberg Financial, LLP, FactSet, (11/11) 8
Stock Market Review and Strategy Global equities rally on economy, earnings and Europe. • October was a month to remember. Risk assets surged on the potential for a European rescue plan, better than expected economic reports and healthy third quarter earnings results. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its third biggest monthly percentage gain in history, while the S&P 500 posted the strongest monthly percentage gain since 1991. • U.S. corporations remain flush with cash and have reported solid earnings results for the third quarter. Corporate profits continue to defy expectations, with U.S. companies beating estimates for the 11th straight quarter. Indeed, S&P 500 earnings are on pace to rise 16 percent in the third quarter, with revenues up an impressive 10 percent. • International equities also rebounded as Europe appeared to be taking the appropriate steps to contain its debt crisis. Stocks climbed across the globe, with Germany, Brazil, and Hong Kong all posting double-digit percentage gains. • Despite worries over near-term earnings prospects and geopolitical events, our forecasts for earnings at larger companies remain constructive for the intermediate term. Large-cap and emerging-markets valuations are extremely low relative to these forecasts and we, therefore, maintain our overweight recommendation. Stock Market Total Returns** Period Ending October 31, 2011 S&P 500 Sector Returns (%) *Annualized returns.**You cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include management fees, so your actual returns may differ from those listed in the charts.Sources: Bloomberg Finance LLP., Factset (11/11) 9
Bond Market Review and Strategy High quality bonds sink as investors rotate into risky assets. • Treasury yields rebounded in October as investors rotated out of “safe” assets and into riskier assets. Optimism over a European rescue package, better than expected economic reports and solid third quarter earnings results all contributed to the sell-off in high quality bonds. • The Federal Reserve maintained its highly accommodative stance through October and implemented its new “Operation Twist” program to reduce long-term interest rates. With modest economic growth and a weak employment situation, we expect Fed policy to remain easy through 2012. • Corporate bond prices advanced in October on strong earnings and solid balance sheets. High yield corporate bonds surged as risk appetites improved and investors took advantage of attractive valuations. • Foreign bonds were mixed for the month, with developed debt underperforming emerging markets debt. Emerging bonds were boosted by the risk-on trade and currency appreciation. • With Treasury rates at or near record lows, we recommend a shorter duration stance. We continue to underweight U.S. Treasurys and developed international bonds. We also see value in high-yield bonds for investors with higher risk tolerances. Bond Market Total Returns** Period Ending October 31, 2011 Credit Spreads to Treasurys Yield Spread (%) *Annualized returns.**You cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include management fees,so your actual returns may differ from those listed in the charts.Sources: Bloomberg Finance LLP., Barclays Capital (11/11) 10
Real Assets Review and Strategy A strong month for Real Assets. • Publicly traded REITs rebounded in October, led by domestic markets. • From a valuation perspective domestic REITs are trading at a four percent premium to net asset value versus their historical 2.4 percent average premium since 1993. • We maintain our Market Weight recommendation on REITs. We believe that strong REIT industry fundamentals and lack of new supply support our recommendation. • We continue to favor REIT property sectors with the shortest lease periods, where landlords have pricing power and can react quickly to changing economic conditions. We are less optimistic on defensive REIT sectors where landlords are locked into longer-term leases and industry fundamentals have only marginally improved. • Commodities prices followed equity prices higher in the month. Evidence the U.S. economy is not heading for recession and China is successfully engineering a soft landing drove economically-sensitive sectors higher. Crude oil surged 17 percent, while copper jumped 12 percent during the month. • We are neutral on commodities as rising global demand may be offset by the potential for slower global economic growth. Real Asset Total Returns** Period Ending October 31, 2011 Crude Oil vs. Gold Gold Oil Gold Price per Ounce (US$) Oil Price per Barrel (US$) *Annualized returns.**You cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include management fees,so actual returns may differ from those listed in the charts.Sources: Bloomberg Finance LLP., National Association of Real Estate Trust (11/11) 11
Complementary Strategies Review and Strategy Hedge funds advance, but trail broader equity markets. • The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index climbed in October, with most strategies posting gains. • With still-elevated volatility and intra-security correlation remaining at particularly high levels, the market environment remains difficult for active managers. The geopolitical environment is likely to remain challenging for the next 6-18 months. • This environment may make it difficult for long-biased hedged strategies, such as hedged equity, to perform consistently with any true level of confidence. It will require managers to have the ability to implement top-down analysis within portfolios rather than relying solely on fundamental analysis to navigate the short-term trading environment. • We have less conviction about long-biased strategies given the uncertainties; we believe that the opportunity is greater in the credit area of the hedge-fund universe. Despite this we remain positive in our outlook for Catalyst Driven strategies, such as Merger Arbitrage, as a result of the difficult economic growth environment and high levels of cash on corporate balance sheets. We also continue to favor tail-risk strategies and those managers able to benefit from the macro economic outlook and the use of managed futures as a “tail-risk” tool. Complementary Strategies*** Total Returns** Period Ending October 31, 2011 U.S. Private Equity Index Returns % Quarterly Change *Annualized returns.**You cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include management fees, so actual returns may differ from those listed in the charts.***Some alternative investments may be available only to pre-qualified investors. Sources: Bloomberg Finance LLP., Cambridge Associates (11/11) 12
The Power of Partnership Superior client service, delivered through a dedicated team of specialists, is at the core of the Wells Fargo Private Bank experience. As the premier provider of investment management and trust services, we stand ready to meet your needs. W. Todd Ripley, CTFA SVP & Senior Investment Manager Wells Fargo Private Bank 864.467.2836 todd.ripley@wellsfargo.com Frank N. Wilson SVP & Wealth Advisor Wells Fargo Private Bank 864.255.8233 frank.wilson@wellsfargo.com Kyle R. Midyette Trust Administrator 336.747.8202 800.576.8202 Toll Free kyle.r.midyette@wellsfargo.com Katie Johnson Investment Management Specialist Wells Fargo Private Bank 864.467.2815 katie.johnson2@wellsfargo.com Todd Lumsden Business Relationship Manager Wells Fargo Community Banking 864.467.2529 todd.lumsden@wellsfargo.com Bree Lawson Client Associate Wells Fargo Private Bank 864.255.8594 bree.lawson@wellsfargo.com