What is ‘futures’ and what benefit can it bring? Jo Marsden

1. What is ‘futures’ and what benefit can it bring?Jo Marsden Office of Science and Technology26 October 2005 www.foresight.gov.uk

2. Presentation structure • The Horizon Scanning Centre and Foresight • Background • Ways of working • Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs: some techniques used with one project • Foresight projects: what happened next?

3. Foresight and the OST Horizon Scanning Centre… • ………..produce challenging visions of the future to ensure effective strategies now……… • ……….. by providing a core of excellence in science-based futures expertise and access to leaders in government, science and business.

4. Challenging visions….. Capability building Setting strategic context Horizon Scanning Innovation priorities Public engagement priorities Priorities, Innovation Wild cards! Living databases Scanning the Scans Scientists’ views 3

5. ∑ Scan Scan Strategic scanning • Strategic context • Authoritative evidence • E.g.…….. • ageing • geopolitics • culture • climate • Emerging S&T • Explore implications • E.g.….. • stem cells • neuroimaging • plastic electronics • teleportation (!)

6. Key stakeholders Science base Academics Investigators Research Councils Funding charities Science informing policy decisions Business needs Foresight and horizon scanning Gov’t needs Knowledge Business Government strategy and policy Business needs Innovation support Markets infrastructure Procurement

7. Projects must tackle issues which: Futures S & T Value added impact Value added: existing work Networks Buy in

8. Expert Engagement Project Director Sir David King OST Team Wider Stakeholder Engagement Project Organisation Structure Ministerial Stakeholder Group Expert Advisory Group Lead science co-ordinators

9. Project Outputs • State of the art reviews • Visions of the future • Consequential actions • Enduring networks • Innovation in engagement

10. State ofScience Horizon Scan Scenarios Highlighting advances of greater future impact Considering those advances in different social environments Assessment of current and future capabilities Brain science, addiction & drugs: project aims • How can we manage the use of psychoactive substances in the future to best advantage for the individual, community and society. • What will the psychoactive substances of the future be? • What are the effects of using psychoactive substances? • What mechanisms do we have to manage psychoactive substances? Project launch Responses to the findings from interested organisations

11. Scoping phase If you could speak to an oracle in the year 2015 what would you like to ask? What is your vision for success? What are the dangers of not achieving your vision? What needs to change (systems, relationships, decision making processes, culture for example) if your vision is to be realised? Looking back 10 years, what are the successes we can build on? And the failures we can learn from? What needs to be done now to ensure that your vision becomes a reality? If you had absolute authority and could do anything is there anything else you would do? Shell’s 7 questions technique

12. Structuring our thinking: project issue tree • Inputs from • 7 questions, • scoping workshops (March and April 2004) • meetings and discussions with various interested organisations • Identified the project’s key questions

13. Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 What psychoactive substances are there likely to be in the future? What motivates people to use them? What can scientific advances offer us? How can we manage the use of psychoactive substances by individuals and society in the future? What are their benefits? What are the effects of using psychoactive substances? What are their harms? What mechanisms do we have to manage the use of psychoactive substances? How can we prevent use? How can we respond to use? Example of part of the Issue Tree

14. Clinical Psychology Experimental Psychology Neuroscience Genomics Pharmacology and Treatments Cognition Enhancers Imaging History of Addiction Drug Testing Behavioural Addiction Life Histories and Narratives Social Policy Sociology Economics Ethics Areas covered by State-of-Science Reviews

15. Key advances from the state of science reviews Inputs from the state-of-science writers Analyses by the key scientific experts Contributed to the development of the scenarios process Stand alone publication Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Project: horizon scanning

16. Scenarios • Henley Centre/Waverley Management Consultants • 3 stage process/3 workshops • Driver assessment • Scenario development • Scenario testing and assessment • Stakeholders involved at all stages

17. Life enhancement • High performance • Decision making is based on scientific knowledge • Widespread use of psychoactive substances to optimise performance and for recreation • UK pharmas manufacture and supply cognitive enhancers • Addiction is seen as an illness to be treated • Neighbourhood Watch • Decision making is based on prevailing social views • Widespread use of psychoactive substances in early stages, declining latterly • UK pharmas manufacture and supply • Addiction is not tolerated; the regime is punitive Evidence-based regulation View-based regulation • Treated Positively • Decision making is based on scientific knowledge • Widespread acceptance of psychoactive substances for treatment; recreational use less so • UK pharmas under treat from open-source niche players • Addiction is not stigmatised; increasing use of preventative treatment • Dispense With Care • Decision making is based on prevailing social views • General intolerance of psychoactive substances other than for treatment • UK pharmas have withdrawn from manufacture because of cost constraints in the NHS • Addiction is not tolerated; those who self-harm are excluded Life preservation

18. Examples Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum: Technology Strategy support for priority areas identified Flooding: cross departmental action plan led by Defra Minister Cognitive Systems: four Research Councils and the Wellcome Trust encourage joint research proposals Cyber Trust: gaming workshops to test robustness of new policies

19. Exploiting the electromagnetic spectrum(EEMS) • Aims • Identify areas of rapidly moving science which presented a significant potential future commercial opportunity for the UK • Agree a plan of action to ensure that the UK captures a share of those emerging markets

20. EEMS outcomes (12 month evaluation)(full report available on Foresight website) • Informing research and development • DTI Innovation Group funded 2 projects (£1.6M) • Research Councils funded >100 proposals (£37M) • Establishing links between business, investors and researchers • Venture capital events • Conferences • Publications • Media coverage (New Scientist, Physics World) • Strengthening communities of interest • Impact of ICT on Healthcare • Medical Imaging Network • Informing government and other agencies • OfCom (pervasive radio frequency area of EEMS) • RDAs (findings fed into RDA’s long term research strategies)

21. Reflections on futures • Futures work is a leap into the unknown for many! • Need to carry people with you through a process that isn’t always easy to grasp • Use of technical jargon • Explain what these futures’ outputs could do for those involved