Outlook Presentation Updated 3.24.11

Outlook PresentationUpdated 3.24.11 Darrell Holaday Advanced Market Concepts/Country Futures dholaday@amcplus.com 800.292.4038 Wamego KS AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

How Did This Happen?

Is the Recession Over?? • GDP improved AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Is the Recession Over?? • GDP improved • Consumer Expenditures Increased AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Is the Recession Over?? • GDP improved • Consumer Expenditures Increased • Inflation under control?? • Food and Energy AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Is the Recession Over?? • GDP improved • Consumer Expenditures Increased • Inflation under control?? • Food and Energy • What about Employment? • How do you explain 9%? AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Is the Recession Over?? • Debt issues still haunting this economy • Public and Private • Explosion in Asian Economies AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Why are Food Commodities so much higher? • Corn Yield in 2010 was the flame • The drought in Russia was the spark • Asian economies growing at 6-10% annual rates. • US Exports benefiting from other problems. • US and World Consumers are going to see a much larger piece of their income pie going to food and energy. • Ultimately this is negative for GDP growth. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

This was the flame that changed everything! AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Corn/ Feed Grains • Corn is still the backbone of the strength • Yields disappointing • Down 5%-7 from Trend and Expectations • Still a lot of questions as to why • Energy drives corn • Has been true since US Govt Initiative in Ethanol • Tax Credits Important but the Mandate is much more IMPORTANT. How would mandate work without Tax Credits. • What is the impact of Ethanol on the price of corn? AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Corn / Feed Grains • Price has not seemed to trim use of corn domestically (or internationally). • Somebody has to stop. The markets job is to make someone lose money using corn. • It cannot live with ending stock to use ratio at 5%. • Who will stop first?? • Did the Japanese Earthquake Trim Use?? • Tremendous pressure to increase acres to 93 million with at 160 bushel yield. • Acreage “fight” will be more interesting than any year in the past. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

How is this at a tight stock situation? AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Corn • What I Like • Tied To Energy and Overall demand for energy is still growing. • We have not rationed supplies. Stocks for the current crop year have to increase. • The fight for acreage will be fierce. • Corn Inventory in strong hands. • There will be much more concern about prospective yields after last year. • What I dislike • A lot of feed wheat in the world. • Japan’s purchases will be reduced in the short run. • Tax credits may be on their last leg. • How do we exist with no tax credits and a mandatory blending level? • Cattle and ethanol use may both decline at the same time. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Wheat • Fundamentally this market is generally the weakest of the sector. • The Russian drought changed the “ world psychology” • Started a small avalanche of production problems • The problems in Russia and Australia have pushed business to the US. • Also had Canadian and EU Problems this year • USSOUTHERN PLAINS GETTING ATTENTION !! AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Wheat • What I Like • Bullish Psychology • Weather problems in the world. US and China, Russia. • Will be another fight for acreage that may trim some wheat acres from the high expectations. • Wheat is a competitive feed in many parts of the world. • CORN • What I dislike • US and World Stocks still in reasonable shape if yields come through without big acreage increase. Still a lot of wheat in the US. • Australia will “fill the boat” with wheat acres. • Could be a false price signal and will attract too many acres • Basis and the possible contract changes AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Soybeans • Overall long term growth in demand remains strong. • Still a growing protein market and China consumption reflects this fact. • We are beginning to see the growth in yield capability. • Started in 2009 • New Genetics will promote additional yield gains. • South American production will slow US exports, but Argentine crop stunted. • China carries the big stick in this market. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

Outlook Presentation Updated 3.24.11

Outlook Presentation Updated 3.24.11

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