Knowledge for development under climate change

1. Knowledge for development under climate change Habiba Gitay World Bank Institute

2. A brief overview of climate change and risks to development • knowledge and capacity For publications and news on the latest climate change initiatives Look for “climate change” on www.worldbank.org includes Development Outreach and Environment Matters

3. Earth systems • Interacting components between land, ocean and atmosphere

4. Importance of greenhouse gases • Greenhouse gases keep the earth “habitable”

5. Increases in major greenhouse gases

6. Projected 700 (2100) 650 600 Vostok Record 550 IPCC IS92a Scenario Law Dome Record 500 Mauna Loa Record 450 Concentration (ppmv) 400 Current 350 2 CO 300 250 200 150 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Years Before Present (B.P. -- 1950) Past atmospheric concentrations of CO2 Concentration of carbon dioxide(CO2) in the atmosphere has remained within tight bounds

7. Observed changes Average surface temperature Melting Sea Ice / Glaciers / Permafrost Increased precipitation e.g. in the northern temperate areas Sea level rise and storm surges Extreme events – increased frequency of droughts, floods

8. Observed impacts Marine and coastal systems - mangroves, coral reefs, coastal fisheries, erosion of coastlines Human societies– floods, droughts, sea level rise/storm surges affected infrastructure and livelihoods; increased water scarcity, malnutrition, vector and water borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever, cholera, diarrhoea)

9. Observed impacts Impacts lends urgency … risk losing developmental gains Terrestrial systems –poleward and upward migration of species/ecosystems; increase in frequency and intensity of pest and disease outbreaks (e.g. in forests), wildfires. Changes in growing seasons, increased in crops in northern temperate areas, decrease in many parts of Africa

10. Inertia and lifetime of GHGs

11. Recent ObservationsNear the top or above IPCC projections Rahmstorf et al Science 2007

12. Managing climate risk • Impacts and ability to manage them depends on • Geographical location and exposure • Present and historical climate • Condition of natural resources (e.g. fresh water supplies, fishery, forests, agricultural production) • Sensitivity • Are the areas and populations near their “climatic limit” • Socioeconomic, institutional factors • Education • Technical and financial capacity • Political will

13. Impacts likely to get worse

14. A Global Deal for action • Climate Change “fundamental failure of markets” • Atmosphere suffers from “tragedy of the commons” • Action has to be effective, economically efficient and equitable and be “global” • Includes technology development and rapid sharing of technology and knowledge • Finances for both adaptation and for low carbon economies Modified from Stern & Noble 2007

15. Bali Action Plan part of United Nations Framework on Climate Change negotiations Mitigation Adaptation Resource Provision: Funding and Investment Technology Development and Transfer

16. Knowledge, capacity and resources • Climate Change and how it affects development • Develop human capacity • Share knowledge rapidly • Make the needed change, learn for implementation and share that knowledge • Research and development - Knowledge generation for local context • policy changes • regulatory changes • technological changes • Innovations (Development Market Place as an idea) • Scaling-up

17. Knowledge – Mitigation Option   Include introduction and/or scaling up of: • Improved energy efficiency and conservation • cleaner oil and coal technologies; • renewable energy, including solar, wind and hydropower; • market mechanisms for carbon trading • the role of forestry and agriculture, including reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD), • policy instruments, including regulatory frameworks, as well as carbon taxes, incentives, subsidies and education to help change behavior patterns.

18. Economically efficient technologies Sweeney 2007

19. Adaptation Reduce other impacts, adapt to changed conditions • Use natural resources efficiently • Change some input-intensive production systems to less intensive (e.g. agriculture) • Fix what doesn’t work now – better prepared for the future. Reality….. • Better cope with present climatic extremes • Deal with present climatic extremes in the context of all other pressures – part of development. Action from communities, government and private sector

20. Urgency means – knowledge and capacity paramount • Improve knowledge sharing on • Early phase technologies and Approaches to adaptation • Scaling up - policies and strategies to do so national action • Enhance and maintain capacity • Understanding of climate change in university curricula • Active participation of stakeholders affected • Implement learning by doing and sharing knowledge on early action • Working across “silos” • Better risk management of present climatic conditions and preparedness for future climate • Large challenges for future generations • Work towards Low carbon economies and resilient societies

21. Thank you More information at www.worldbank.org/ and click on climate change