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Time variable analysis

Solidaire. Time variable analysis. Damien Dornic (IFIC). MANTS meeting – Paris Sept 2010. Motivation. More than 50% of sources are found to be variable… → Use this time information direclty in the analysis : * reduce effectively the background

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Time variable analysis

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  1. Solidaire Time variable analysis DamienDornic (IFIC) MANTS meeting – Paris Sept 2010

  2. Motivation More than 50% of sources are foundtobe variable… → Use this time informationdireclty in theanalysis: * reduce effectivelythebackground * improvethediscoverypotentialover a time integratedsearch. → Searchforsignalfromblazars AGN – candidatesourcesfor UHECR (p-γor p-p  strongcorrelationbetweenγ-rayand neutrino fluxes) • γ-ray catalogues: • Fermi (>100 Mev - ~10 GeV) • IACT (>100 GeV) • Swift (~10 keV)

  3. γ-ray LC: Fermi (1) Candidate Fermi sourcesfor ANTARES:

  4. γ-ray LC: Fermi Fermi satellitetakes data sinceJuly 2008 (MJD=54683) → Complete coverageevery 3h → Public data (idemforSwift catalogue) Methodtoselectflares: 1) Selections of γ-raysources → Selection of Blazars → Flux (>300MeV) > 20 10-8 photons.cm-2.s-1 (highstate) → Variabilityσ2NXS > 0.15 (Abdo et al, ……..) 2) Light curves (1-day bin): format .fits → http://fermi.gsfc.nasa.gov/ssc/data/access/lat/msl_lc/ 3) Determination of theflareperiods

  5. γ-ray LC: Fermi (2) PKS0208-512 3C279 PKS2155-304 PKS1510-089

  6. γ-ray LC: Fermi (3) Determination of theflare ( highstate) periods Pragmaticmethod: 1) “baseline“ determination 2) findthepointabovethisbaselinetakingintoaccountthe error and thebaselinefluctuation 3) flareperiods(addingadjacentpoints compatible) PKS1510-089

  7. γ-ray LC: Fermi (4) PKS0208-512 3C279 PKS2155-304 3C454.3

  8. γ-ray LC: Fermi (5) Fermi flareslist: Indicativenumbersthatwilldependonthethreshold

  9. γ-ray LC: IACT IACT telescopes : HESS, VERITAS & MAGIC → uncompletecoverage → veryfewexample of flaresdetected (Mrk 421, 3c66A/B, PKS2155-304…) Wcomae: Flaresdetectedby veritas 54537-40 and 54623-27

  10. Time variable analysis Method: unbinnedsearchusing a likelihood ratio (Garo’smethod) Noise: Signal: Only up-goingmultilineevents (2008 data ~70.3 days) Optimizationin ordertofindthemimimum neutrino flux tohave a 3 (5)sigma discovery

  11. Time variable analysis (3) Use 2reconstructionalgorithms: BBFit / AAFit PSF Angres vs E: AAFit + BBFit ! Warning: old MC (run37218) + oldAAFit (without inter line time offstet)

  12. Likelihood ratio: expectedresults

  13. Expectedresults Only up-goingmultilineevents (2008 data ~70.3 days) (Toooptimistic)

  14. Expectedresults AGN GRB Only up-goingmultilineevents (2008 data ~70.3 days) (Toooptimistic)

  15. Expectedresults 3σ 5σ Improvement : Flare(3d) ~0.4-0.5 * No timing Flare(0.1d)~0.2 * No timing Only up-goingmultilineevents (2008 data ~70.3 days)

  16. Summary Time variable analysisisworkingusingBBFitorAAFitreconstructionswiththe12L data in 2008 To do: - Checkthedetermination of theflareperiods - Extendtothe 2009-10 data - Extension: GRB analysis (2D PSF  azimut anisotropy of the detector response) Search of periodicity(microquasar, SS443, LS5139, GX339…)

  17. Sharedworked 8 or 9 sources are in bothanalysis Flaresdetermination: - Catalogue X-ray(Swift…) γ-ray (Fermi) - Light curve analysis

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