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V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, E.V. Dunaevskaya

Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, E.V. Dunaevskaya. Joint AMO and PDO manifestations in the winter wheat yield in Ukraine. 10 September 2012 Łódź, Poland. Aim.

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V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, E.V. Dunaevskaya

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  1. Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, E.V. Dunaevskaya Joint AMO and PDO manifestations in the winter wheat yield in Ukraine 10 September 2012 Łódź, Poland

  2. Aim • to study how Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) influence on low-frequency variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine

  3. Data sets • Regional winter wheat yield (1945–2008) in different agroclimatic zones of Ukraine: woodland, forest steppe, steppe • Monthly AMO and PDO indices (1990–2008) • Long-term series of monthly in-situprecipitation & temperature (1990–2008) • Frequency and depth of cyclones and anticyclones (1948–2006) over Ukraine obtained using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets

  4. Agroclimatic zones of Ukraine WOODLAND FOREST-STEPPE STEPPE

  5. Winter wheat yield in 1945-2008

  6. Regional factors AIR TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION • tair and p are mean values for the vegetation period of winter wheat SINOPTIC SYSTEMS (CYCLONES & ANTICYCLONES) cd – depth of cyclones af – frequency of anticyclones

  7. Global factors Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation [http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/] [http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/05/14/timescale-of-the-pdo-nao-and-amo/]

  8. Climate shift in XX century 1970 1965-1970 • The climate shift in 1965–75 was found in the variability of winter wheat yield 1965

  9. Association with AMO R=-0,6 Average long-term differences Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level

  10. Association with PDO R=0,4 Average long-term differences Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level

  11. What are the joint AMO and PDO manifestations?

  12. PDO-AMO index as an indicator of joint influence

  13. Joint AMO & PDO manifestations R=-0,57

  14. Conclusions • The climatic shift in 1965–75 associated with multidecadal processes in the ocean-atmosphere system was found in the variability winter wheat yieldin Ukraine • During AMO+ or PDO- phases the winter wheat yield is 10–15 centners/ha higher than during AMO- or PDO+ phase • The joint influence of AMO and PDO determines about 30% of the variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine

  15. THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!

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