Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler

1. Sensitivity of Emissions and their Drivers to economic Growth and Fossil Fuel Availability: a regional Analysis Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Promitheas Conference Athens, 9-11 October 2013

2. Motivation and Objectives • Economic growth is an important determinant of energy demand and fossil fuel availability one of energy supply. • How do these two factors affect baseline developments and climate stabilization requirements? • Regional resource endowments and energy end use determine technology use and mitigation potential. • What are possible regional emission patterns and their drivers, and regional abatement strategies? • What are robust versus sensitive elements of scenarios for achieving a sustainable global energy future in compliance with ambitious climate protection goals across world regions?

3. Scenarios • Economic growth: • based on 2008 Revision of UN World Population Prospects • assumptions on speed of growth and convergence • these scenarios: medium population, fast convergence • Fossil fuel availability: • data on total size of fossil resource base, recovery rates • extraction costs • Stringency of climate protection: • no-policy and 450 ppm CO2-equiv concentration • overshoot and full when and where flexibility

4. REMIND Model • Multi-regional (11 regions) hybrid model with timespan 2005-2100 • Coupled economic growth model, detailed energy system model, and simple climate model • Ramsey-type optimal growth, optimizing intertemporal global welfare • Production factors (capital, labor, and final energy) produce economic output (GDP) used for investments in capital stock, consumption, trade, and energy system expenditures

5. Regions Europe China USA India Africa

6. Emissions - Default Baseline • Global cumulated emissions: ~65% of global cumulated emissions by investigated regions • Total emissions : China ~22%; USA and India ~13% each, Europe ~9%, Africa ~7% • Temporal trends • Developed: conservative changes but noteworthy increases at the second half of the century • Emerging and developing: initial sharp growth and then stabilizing or declining • Per capita emissions • US and Europe at the high end • China converges • Africa and India below world average despite considerable initial increases

7. Kaya Identity

8. Emissions Drivers – Baseline Economic Growth Scenarios • Findings on major emiters (total and per capita) remain robust • Higher emissions with faster growth Drivers in emissions differences • Till 2050 almost entirely GDP and EI. • With faster growth, higher GDP (scenario assumptions) and lower EI (substitution of energy with capital, energy efficiency). • After 2050 also CI developments are important • With faster growth, higher fossils extraction but faster exchaustion and earlier switch towards renewables • Diverse CI reactions accross regions: inter-fuel substitution varies depending on price increases accross fuels and regions

9. Emissions Drivers – Baseline Fossil Fuel Scenarios • Findings on major emiters (total and per capita) more sensitive • Tendency for higher availabilty relating to higher emissions but numerous exceptions Drivers in emissions differences • EI tend to be higher for high availability (limited price-induced energy-to-capital subtitution effect) • CI are the key drivers of changes in emissions • With higher fossils, higher oil shares (liquids), gas and coal (electricity) and lower renewables • Inter-fuel substitution (oil versus coal) can lead to counter-intuitive effects in some regions

10. Emissions – Climate policy • Total emissions: • Drastic reductions in all regions • Per capita emissions: • Convergence towards 2080 • Economic growth variation: negligible change in CI, some variation in EI • Fossils Variation: both CI and EI unaffected

11. Emissions Drivers – Climate policy • Higher emission in baseline, higher emission requiremens • EI improvements mainly till 2050, most reductions through CI reductions • Greatest reductions: Africa, US, China, India, Europe • EI improve more in developing and emerging economies, lower CI when more BECCS • All regions develop their renewables capacities, BECCS, (nuclear), and reduce fossils • Technological implications of climate stabilization are robust.

12. Conclusions • Baseline emissions and emission reductions sensitive to scenario variation, but climate policy trajectories and regional technology portfolios robust towards massive emissions reductions through renewables deployment and fossils phase out. • China, the US, and India remain the greatest emiters, highlighting their importance for global climate. • Per capita emissions difference between advanced and developing economiesremains in a no-policy world, while climate policy achieves greater convergence. • In climate policy, both EI and CI improvements important, but the effect of the latter dominates. • Relative fossil prices crutial for emissions patterns, but regional vulnerability to fossil fuel prices not relevant under climate policy. • Carbon free energy technologies boosted by faster growth, lower fossils availability, and carbon pricing. • Developing economies, such as Africa, might pose a significant opportunity for low carbon-development.

13. More information on RoSE: • Website: http://www.rose-project.org/ • Policy Brief with key messages • Special Issue in Climatic Change • Public available database Acknowledgements: http://www.stiftung-mercator.de/

14. BACK UP SLIDES

15. Energy Mixes – Default Baseline

16. Energy Mixes – Default Baseline

17. Emissions Drivers – Default Baseline Economic growth and energy intensity (EI) improvements • Main drivers of emissions for all regions • Higher economic growth rates in developing and emerging economies (scenario assumptions) • Faster EI improvements (substitution of energy with capital, efficiency parameters) Carbon Intensities (CI) • Important and affecting significantly temporal emissions trends • Africa and India, sharp increase (more fossils to fuel development) but then decline. Others, coal to substitute oil. Population • More important in emerging and developing economies