H. Sabelli. Chicago Center for Creative Development. Hector_Sabelli@rush

1. Bios and bipolar feedback in socioeconomic processes: scientific foundations for human emancipation. H. Sabelli. Chicago Center for Creative Development. Hector_Sabelli@rush.edu

2. Economy means management of the home. The goal of economic processes is to serve persons and families, not to produce profits. "A society is rich when material goods, including capital, are cheap, and human beings dear." R.H. Tawney.

3. Empirical findings • Biotic patterns, indicating that socioeconomic processes are • creative, not determined, random or chaotic; (2) readily modifiable by relatively small inputs such as human intervention.

4. Complexes in Treasury Bills 1 month Treasury Bills Shuffled copy Complexes (transient patterns) are characteristic of bios, not of equilibrium or chaos.

5. Hallmarks of Bios in Corn prices: Complexes (transient patterns)

6. Diversification,local Hallmarks of Bios in Corn prices: Diversification Novelty Causality Arrangement Limited global diversification

7. Asymmetry and diversification, biotic features in British / USA currency exchange rates asymmetry

8. Currency exchange rates demonstrate creative features typical of bios: British / USA. Other currency exchange rates that demonstrate creative features typical of bios: Australian, Dutch, French, German, Japanese, Swiss.

9. Mean Duration of Civil Unemployment 1967-2004. U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment demonstrates diversification and asymmetry

10. Mean Duration of Civil Unemployment (1967-2004. U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics) demonstrates biotic features: complexes, novelty, consecutive recurrence, non-random complexity [arrangement].

11. Mean Duration of Unemployment 1967-2004. U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total unemployment demonstrates complexes and all other biotic features Chaotic attractors postulated by Guastello, S. J. (2001). Attractor stability in unemployment and inflation rates. In Y. Aruka (Ed.). Evolutionary controversies in economics (pp. 89-99). Tokyo: Springer-Verlag.

12. Oil price : Local and Global Diversification

13. Oil price and volume: Novelty, Causality, Arrangement

15. Power Spectrum Analysis. for economic time series, and the time series of differences compatible with bios but not with brown, white, or pink stochastic noise or chaos.

16. Historicaltrends in prices in England from 1201 to 1993, and simulation by biotic series generated with the process equation.

17. Empirical findings • Biotic patterns, indicating that socioeconomic processes are (1) creative, not determined, random or chaotic; and (2) readily modifiable by relatively small inputs such as human intervention. • Mixed, diverse, asymmetric and statistical distributions of personal, family and national income (rarely Pareto’s power laws).

18. Zipf distribution: observing one continual distribution suggests that there is no “Third World” as a separate entity.

19. Lognormal-like distribution Tail fits Pareto distribution A mixture of two or more distributions. Three distinct phases suggests three classes with qualitatively different processes of accumulation.

20. State incomes do not follow a Pareto distribution

21. With the exception of the poorest nation, the cumulative frequency of GNP per capita follows a straight line

22. Among 46 relatively wealthy nations, the GNP per capita does not follow a Pareto distribution.

23. Empirical findings • Biotic patterns, indicating that socioeconomic processes are (1) creative, not determined, random or chaotic; and (2) readily modifiable by relatively small inputs such as human intervention. • Mixed, diverse, asymmetric and statistical distributions of personal, family and national income (not Pareto’s power laws) • Extreme disparities in income distribution indicate the role of power relations rather than resource availability or “natural” economic laws.

24. The statistical distribution of incomes in Japan shows the supremacy of one generation over others as well as of men over women.

25. Household income of USA families (2003) The statistical distribution of incomes in Japanese families does not show the asymmetry observed in the USA, regarded by many as the “natural” and “unavoidable” result of the laws ofeconomics.

26. Lack of correlation between GNP and health indicate that economic distribution are political choices, not determined by “natural” economic laws. (before the war)

27. Country isolated from USA after its independence because of fear of free Black slaves (Jefferson) and currently occupied by UN troops. Infant Mortality in Caribbean countries CIA data 2005 Country incorporated into USA Country independent and under embargo Belonging to the dominant world economy has both positive and negative consequences (development and reversed development). Bipolar feedback represents reality better than modernization theory (capitalism) and reversed development theory (Marxism).

28. Creative Bios: a new economic theory • Biotic pattern of action: non-stationary, creative and destructive, modifiable (NOT self-regulatory equilibrium). • Development and reversed development of nations. • Generated by bipolar feedback (abundance and scarcity, supply and demand) (NOT by scarcity alone as in standard economics; NO equilibrium of supply and demand). • Creative bios requires high energy (abundance). Destructive chaos results from low energy (scarcity) (promoted by austerity programs championed by international financial institutions

29. Economic processes are • Causal (NOT random) • Modifiable (high sensitivity to small inputs) • Co-created by the priority of human and environmental health and the supremacy of human choices Creative Bios offers a scientific foundation for an economy for humans rather than for profit.