Campaigns and Elections

Campaigns and Elections Chapters 10 & 11

Function of the Election • Choose over 500,000 public roles • Contest between political parties • Winner-take-all – the person with the most votes wins (don’t need over 50% +1) • Plurality • Single-member districts – one rep per district

Presidential Election Timeline • 1-2 years before election: Exploratory committee and $ • January-June of election year: Primary Elections and $ • August-September of election year: Conventions/VP chosen and $ • October of election year: Debates and $ • November of election year: General Election • December of election year: Electoral Votes Cast • January after the election: Electoral votes counted in Congress Jan. 6th and Inauguration Day (Jan. 20th @ 12 noon)

Presidential Election Process • Each state holds a primary or caucus between January and June to determine candidates for parties • Candidates then enter into general elections against the other political parties - More people vote in general elections. On average, 50%-ish of people vote in general elections versus 25%-ish in the primaries.

Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections • Congress elections are regional/local • Senate by state; House by district • House elections are less competitive (more predictable) than Senate or President • Incumbents – rep up for reelection, typically win elections by 60% • Congressional elections every two years (all House up for reelection and 1/3 of the Senate) • Fewer people vote in “off-year” or “midterm year” (only 36%) which means voters are more activist or ideological. • Next year (2014) is a midterm election.

Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections Coattail effect - Presidential popularity effecting congressional elections in midterm years • Congress communicates with their constituents more directly, often personally, while President relies on media • Congress reps can deny responsibility and blame problems on other reps or President

Running for President • Money • Organization • Fund-raisers, lawyers, accountants, media consultants, advisors, pollsters, etc. Staff of hundreds • Strategy and Themes • Tone, theme, timing, target

Running for Congress • Incumbents have huge advantage • Franking privileges (postage) also now free website hosting • Name recognition • Ability to help constituents navigate through federal bureaucracy (“case work” or “constituent services”) • Challengers can highlight the distrust by public of the incumbent • “Run against Congress, not for it.” • “Throw the bums out!” • “I’m going to change Washington!”

Electoral College • Remember the formula: • #HR + 2S = #EV • KY: 6 + 2 = 8 • In an election – a total of 538 EV’s are up for grabs – you need 270 to win! (435 in HR + 100 S + 3DC = 538) • www.270towin.com • Minimum a state can have is 3 (Wyoming is the least populous state in the US.)

Electoral College • Electoral college casts their votes in their home states in December. • Electoral college members are chosen differently in each state. • Most states have a law that says you must cast your EV for the candidate for which you have already pledged – can’t change mind. (Though every few elections, someone does, which results in a minor media storm for a day or so.) • KY’s delegates are chosen by each party – R’s pick R’s; D’s pick D’s. Party of winning candidate gets to cast the votes. • EV’s are counted in a joint-session of Congress on January 6th – live on CSPAN. (Around 1:00 pm I think?)

(Re)-Apportionment • Every 10 years, we conduct the US Census. It was officially done on April 1, 2010. • Between 2010 and the 2012 election, house seats are reapportioned(redistributed) based upon population gains and losses – the fixed number is 435 by Congressional law. • They can increase the number of HR members if they want to but have chosen not to. • Looking at my CSPAN map - you can see the BIG gains and losses (Texas +4; Ohio -2; NY -2). • A congressional district = 600,000 to 750,000 approx.

(Re)-Apportionment • Based upon this, we can see the societal trend of people moving South and West in the US. You gotta go where the jobs are! • One major reason is that manufacturing jobs have left the North/Midwest (the “rust belt”) and gone south where “Right to Work” laws exist. • “Right to Work” laws prohibit a union “closed shop” – a requirement to join the union as a condition of getting your job. • 23 of 50 states are RTW states. Ohio and Kentucky are not RTW states; Indiana, Tennessee and most southern and some western states are RTW. • Retirees/Baby Boomers and Hispanics account for the rest of the population growth in the South and West.

“Gerrymandering” • State legislatures draw or re-draw congressional district lines. • These are subject to Supreme Court approval and can be changed if “gerrymandering” is thought to be present. • Gerrymandering is drawing congressional district lines to favor one political party over another or “racial gerrymandering”, to favor one race over another. • These result in the non-competitive districts we have talked about (where either the R or D always wins) or “safe seats”.

“Packing and Cracking” Packing a district means drawing the lines so they include as many of the opposing party’s voters as possible. Results in a safe seat for each district or political party. Cracking means dividing an opponents voters into other districts, weakening the opponent’s voter base. Results in safe seats for one party only.

“Gerrymandering” back then In 1812, Governor Elbridge Gerry signed a bill that redistricted Massachusetts to benefit his Democratic-Republican Party. When mapped, one of the contorted districts in the Boston area was said to resemble the shape of a salamander.

“Gerrymandering” today Is Hamilton County “Gerrymandered”? Photo credit – Emerson Holladay

Compact and Continuous The Supreme Court has ruled that districts must be compact and continuous or physically adjoining. This requirement plus the “one-person, one-vote” principal has cut down on some of the worst examples of gerrymandering.

Is this legal? • There are 3 districts represented – Red, Blue and Green. Is this legal?

Is this legal? • YES…a square within a larger square, or a circle within a larger circle, is not permitted. • But a similar shape can be effectively achieved with a narrow strip or path of land that joins the outer area to the inner area, as in the letter "C". This example contains three contiguous election districts, where each district contains portions of the other two districts.

Is this legal? • This example contains three contiguous election districts, where each district contains portions of the other two districts.

OK…let’s review • Elections are expensive. Period. • House seats are safer for incumbents than Senate seats. Incumbent presidents have some advantages but can still lose re-election. • The census and reapportionment are constitutionally required every 10 years on the “0” year (2000, 2012, 2020). • State legislatures re-draw congressional district boundary lines but must obey federal guidelines. • Gerrymandering generally makes HR seats non-competitive, insuring a certain party or race is perpetually re-elected. • If gerrymandering has gone too far or is too obvious, the federal government can strike it down and send it back to the drawing board.

And now for something completely different… WHAT ABOUT THE MONEY??

Campaign Finance • How are campaigns financed? • Soft vs. Hard Money • Soft money is funds raised by the two major political parties and spent by them in the states to aid candidates indirectly. There were no federal regulations on this until 2002. • Hard money is money donated to the candidate directly from individuals. • Hard money is disclosed to the FEC; soft money is not, causing suspicion and controversy.

Soft vs. Hard Money Ads • EXAMPLES • Candidate X runs an ad that says, "I am a good person. Candidate Y is a bad person. Vote for me on election day." Because of the "Vote for me..." portion, this is a political ad, which must be paid for with "hard money.“ (aka “I’m so and so and I approve this message.”) • Candidate Y runs an ad that says, "Candidate X has a record that includes awful things. If these awful things continue, people will come to your house, steal your money and shoot your dog. Be sure to vote on election day." Because the ad "educates" people on an issue or topic and doesn't tell them to vote for a particular candidate, it's party building, and can be paid for by soft money (By a PAC, SuperPAC or 527 group).

PAC’s & SuperPAC’s • A political committee that raises and spends limited "hard" money contributions for the express purpose of electing or defeating candidates. Organizations that raise soft money for issue advocacy may also set up a PAC. • Most PACs represent business, such as the Microsoft PAC; labor, such as the Teamsters PAC; or ideological interests, such as the AARP PAC or the National Rifle Association PAC. Political Action Committees (PACs), SuperPAC’s and 527 groups are typically involved in financing campaigns. • PACs are private organizations that donate or spend more than $1,000 for the purpose of influencing an election. • If the PAC is corporate or union-based, it's only allowed to ask for money from union members, their families, shareholders or executives.

PAC’s & SuperPAC’s • PACs are limited to donating $5,000 to a single candidate and $15,000 to a political party per election. • Individuals can give a maximum of $5,000 to a PAC per year. TV, radio and print campaign ads from PACs must include a disclaimer that clearly states who paid for the ad. • The “SuperPAC" is like a traditional PAC (Political Action Committee) without many of the restrictions. A “SuperPAC" can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money for the sole purpose of supporting or opposing political candidates. • A “SuperPAC" can directly attack a political candidate. The only rule is that a “SuperPAC" is not allowed to coordinate directly with candidates or political parties.

527’s • A tax-exempt group organized using section 527 of the Internal Revenue Code can raise money for political activities including voter mobilization efforts, issue advocacy and the like. • These 527 groups have become increasingly popular and influential. They're similar to PACs and SuperPACs, but don't donate to or work directly with a candidate's campaign. • This distinction allows them to operate outside the control of the FEC(Federal Election Commission). • Your textbook mentions the “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” group as having a significant impact on John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign bid when the group challenged his military record. • The recent IRS scandal (investigating conservative groups who claim to be tax exempt) was based in the downtown Cincinnati IRS office. This issue is currently under investigation by a congressional oversight committee.

How much can I give? • Individuals may now give a federal-level political candidates up to $2,500 per election -- up from $2,400 during the 2010 election cycle, according to the Federal Election Commission. • An individual may also give national party committees (RNC, DNC) up to $30,800 per calendar year. • An individual’s total contribution to all federal campaigns, parties and other political committees combined may not exceed $117,000 for the 2012 election cycle. • During the 2004 election cycle, for example, an individual could donate $2,000 per election to a candidate. That limit increased to $2,100 during the 2006 cycle and $2,300 during the 2008 cycle. • Among what won't change for the 2012 election cycle: contribution limits pertaining to political action committees. The limit remains unchanged at $5,000 per person, per calendar year.

Campaign Laws & Cases • Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 and the 1974 amendments • Buckley v. Valeo 1976 • BRCA (McCain-Feingold) 2002 • McConnell v. Federal Election Commission 2003 • Federal Election Commission v. Wisconsin Right to Life, Inc. 2007 • Davis v. Federal Election Commission 2008 • Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission 2010

Campaigns and Elections