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Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Deutscher Bundestag Berlin -

Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Deutscher Bundestag Berlin - 5th October 2007. Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials

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Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Deutscher Bundestag Berlin -

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  1. Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Deutscher Bundestag Berlin - 5th October 2007 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association (BSW Solar) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG • Siemensstr. 100 • 63755 Alzenau Phone: +49 6023 92 6679 • Fax: +49 6023 92 6560 email: Winfried_Hoffmann@amat.com • www.appliedmaterials.com

  2. Power$/W Area$/m² SunFabTM Applied Materials Overview Vision:We apply nanomanufacturing technology™ to improve the way people live “Solar Business Group” within “Energy and Environmental Solutions”

  3. Historical Market Development by Regions ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting

  4. 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 €ct per kWh 1991: Electricity Feed-In Act Right of (1) of grid access(2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 €ctper kWh) 1991 - 1995: 1,000 RoofsProgram 1999 - 2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr. Low-interest loansfor 300 MWp 2004: Amendment to EEG Feed-in tariff of 45.7 - 62.4 €ct per kWh Development of the German PV market ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)

  5. Solar energy Wind Hydro Geothermal Bio energy Renewable Energies are requested “These energy sources should secure our energy needs in the future” The vast majority of the population in Germany bets on Renewable Energies for their future energy needs. ref: forsa, Germany 2005

  6. Image: Q-Cells Image: Aleo Industry is following the market • More than €15 billion were invested in PV systems in Germany since 2000 • About €1 billion will be invested in manufacturing plants in 2007 • About 50 companies produce silicon, wafers, cells, modules and inverters • Modern and automated production lines • Improved efficiency, improved products • About €100 million will be invested in Research & Development in 2007 • Strong technological development and increased R&D activities • R&D is done by industry and institutes ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)

  7. European Market Support Programs Country Feed-in law 2005 2006 (est.) yearly market [MW] Tariff [€ct/kWh] Duration [a] Cap [MW] Germany 38 – 49 BIPV + 5ct 20 - 750 750 Italy 36 – 49 20 1,200 5 12 Portugal 31 – 45 150 1 1 Spain 22 – 41 25 400 20 63 France 30 - 40 BIPV + 15- 25 20 - 5 12 Greece 40 – 50 20 1 1 other countries Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005) ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA)

  8. on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency ² €/kWh €/hr light g/W W/m Source: Fraunhofer ISE €/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm² Customer Needs

  9. World PV Application Segmentation 2000 40 %/yr overall 1800 1600 1400 63%/yr 1200 1000 Market Size in MW 800 600 400 18%/yr 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting

  10. Photovoltaics Retail prices private and small business Large power consuming industries market support programs necessary: ref: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH, Germany Competitiveness between Electricity Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices

  11. Seasonal Electricity Prices Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005 Range of Electricity Prices in California ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW

  12. MW Different World PV Market Projectionsuntil 2010 (Status: 2006/2007 ) F F F F

  13. History 10,0 1,0 $/W module price experience factor 15% 18% 340 GW/yr 1.8 GW/yr 6 GW/yr 70 GW/yr 2030 F 2005 2010 F 2020 F 0,1 1 10 100 1.000 10.000 GW accumulated Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules Forecast ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

  14. ‘65 ‘70 ‘75 ‘80 ‘85 ‘90 ‘95 ‘00 VLSI/DRAM 100 FPD Cost (PECVD) 10,000 10 1 ~28% reduction for doubling of total volume Analog Handset Price Market Price/unit (1996 $) 10-1 DRAM Cents/bit 10-2 1,000 10-3 10-4 Cumulative Bits 10-5 100 105 107 109 1011 1013 1015 1017 1019 0.1 1 10 100 Cumulative Units Sold (Millions) Cost/Learning Curve Examples

  15. Future Growth of the Global PV SolarElectricity Market in GWp and bn€ turnover F F F F F F F ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

  16. = own estimates ref: EURELECTRIC and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

  17. Solaris Projected to be Big

  18. Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (I) • Success story for PV solar electricity industry due to market support programs (40 % annual growth in the last decade) specific • Industry investment for PV solar electricity high-tech production needs Stable market conditions • Not short also not long term, but until grid parity is reached (+ 5 … 15 years) • Allow differentiated feed-in tariff programs in EK 27 – do not force non-differentiating quota systems / trading of green certificates in short term • No stop and go budget (happening when coming from finance minister, instead feed in tariff budgets allocated to electricity users) • In compliance with population (more than 80% of people like to support financially in particular PV systems, e.g. modest increase to electricity bill in feed in tariffs) • Easy grid access without bureaucratic hurdles (no approval procedures for decentralized PV systems)

  19. Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (II) If support programs are done now globally, we will have • Short term (2015 …) • Reach grid parity in liberalized utility markets • Market volume above 30 bn € • Medium term (2030 …) • Reach generation cost equal to clean coal electricity production • Market volume towards 200 bn € • Be the most suited energy delivery together with micro-credit financing to the billions of people in the developing world • Long term (2050 …) • Together with solar thermal electricity power stations be the lowest cost electricity producing technology (also less than nuclear) • Contribute aggressively to the global electricity needs (more than30 %)

  20. END

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