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Renewable Resource Development in the Midwest: Findings from Repowering the Midwest

Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest. 2. Repowering the Midwest. Study was prepared for the Environmental Law and Policy Center and a group of regional energy and environmental organizations.Study Authors:Synapse Energy Economics Brower and CompanyEnvironmental Law and Polic

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Renewable Resource Development in the Midwest: Findings from Repowering the Midwest

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    1. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 1 Renewable Resource Development in the Midwest: Findings from Repowering the Midwest Tim Woolf Synapse Energy Economics 22 Pearl Street, Cambridge, MA 02139 www.synapse-energy.com NREL Energy Analysis Forum Golden, Colorado August 13, 2001

    2. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 2 Repowering the Midwest Study was prepared for the Environmental Law and Policy Center and a group of regional energy and environmental organizations. Study Authors: Synapse Energy Economics Brower and Company Environmental Law and Policy Center Renewable Energy Policy Project Tellus Institute Report is available at www.repoweringmidwest.org

    3. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 3 Existing Levels of Renewables in the Midwest

    4. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 4 New Renewables Proposed for the Midwest

    5. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 5 Business as Usual Forecast for the Midwest Forecast from DOE’s Annual Energy Outlook. Heavy reliance upon coal and nuclear plants. Electricity demand increases steadily. Large addition of new gas plants to meet load growth. Sources of Electricity in the Midwest. Business As Usual Practices. Generation (TWh)

    6. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 6 The Clean Energy Development Plan Adopt aggressive, but realistic, mix of efficient and clean energy technologies: End-use efficiency. Wind turbines: both small clusters and large farms. Biomass: co-firing, combined heat and power, dedicated plants. Solar: photovoltaics. Efficient gas generation technologies: Combined heat and power. District energy systems. Fuel cells. Retire portion of older, less efficient coal plants in response to CO2 reduction policy.

    7. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 7 New Renewable Capacity in the Clean Energy Plan New wind. 2010: 6,698 MW 2020: 24,510 MW Wind as % of total capacity. 2010: 4.2% 2020: 13.2%

    8. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 8 New Renewable Generation in the Clean Energy Plan Renewables as % of total generation. 2010: 8.0% 2020: 21.9% Wind as % of total generation. 2010: 3.0% 2020: 11.3%

    9. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 9 Distribution of New Renewables in 2020

    10. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 10 Results of the Clean Energy Development Plan No new growth in electricity demand. New renewables: 8% of gen. by 2010. 22% by 2020. New efficient gas: 10% of gen. by 2010. 24% of gen. by 2020. No need for new gas CCs or CTs. Sources of Electricity in the Midwest. The Clean Energy Development Plan. Generation (TWh)

    11. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 11 The Clean Energy Development Plan: CO2 Reductions Sufficient to Meet Kyoto Goal

    12. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 12 Cost of the Clean Energy Development Plan The Clean Energy Development Plan can be achieved with modest increases in electricity costs: 1.5% increase in total electricity costs in 2010. 3.4% increase in total electricity costs in 2020. These costs are low partly because of the large net savings (i.e., costs reductions) available from end-use efficiency. The are also low because of the large amount of wind resources in the Midwest.

    13. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 13 Policies to Promote Renewable Resources Renewable Portfolio Standard. 8% by 2010. 20% by 2020. Renewable Energy Investment Fund. System benefit charge of 0.1 ˘/kWh. Managed by an independent, non-profit administrator. Transmission pricing policies. Renewable representation in ISO and RTO governance. Eliminate pancaked rates. Flexibility in balancing real-time transmission capacity markets. Non-discriminatory spot-market rules. Various policies to support clean distributed generation.

    14. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 14 Distribution of Wind Resources in the Midwest

    15. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 15 Wind as Percent of Demand in the Great Plains: 2020 States are not isolated electricity systems. In the MAAP region wind is 30% of total demand. Wind Generation as a Percentage of Total State or Regional Electricity Demand -- 2020

    16. Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest 16 Wind Transmission Needs Large concentration of wind resources in the western Great Plains states. These states have relatively low electricity demand. Most electricity demand is in the eastern states. Much of the wind generated in the western states needs to be transmitted to the eastern states. May require some upgrades in bulk transmission lines. “Wind on the Wires” project to address transmission issues: Remove transmission bottlenecks. Update transmission rules to provide wind with fair access. See www.windonthewires.org.

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