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Decision Support for the IT Manager

Decision Support for the IT Manager. John H. Saunders, Ph.D. Agenda. Roles and Decision Processes of the IT Manager Cognitive Limitations and Biases Aides/Tools/Techniques for the Decision Maker Exercise in Technology Selection. But first – a quiz!. Role of the CIO.

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Decision Support for the IT Manager

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  1. Decision Support for the IT Manager John H. Saunders, Ph.D.

  2. Agenda • Roles and Decision Processes of the IT Manager • Cognitive Limitations and Biases • Aides/Tools/Techniques for the Decision Maker • Exercise in Technology Selection But first – a quiz!

  3. Role of the CIO • Must manage semi-structured and unstructured problems: • Mission • Budget • Politics & approvals • Skills & Training • Contractors • Technology • High Level Project Management All involve evaluation!

  4. The process of decision-making • Intelligence • Design, • Choice • Implementation • Unaided decision-making is often reduced to “satisfising” Tools are available for each stage Source: Herbert Simon

  5. Do managers need support for making decisions? • Cognitive Limits • Overconfidence • Perceptual Limitations • Framing Limitations • Decision environment: • Number of alternatives is increasing, • Time pressure is increasing, • Need for analysis is increasing, • Remote access is increasing. I’m good at making decisions. I know what I’m talking about.

  6. Bootstrapping - decision support Source: Decision Traps

  7. Portals Managers have IT support • For the intelligence phase of decision-making: • e-mail, • internet access, • spreadsheets, • Executive Information Systems (EIS), • portals, • dashboards, • data mining, • model management Digital Dashboards Visualization

  8. Analysis paralysis/Information Overload Better Decision More Info

  9. An Effective Decision Process • focuses on what is important, • is logical and consistent, • acknowledges subjective & objective factors, • requires minimal information and analysis, • guides the gathering of relevant information, • is straightforward yet flexible. Source: Smart Choices

  10. Technique Functional Economic Analysis Cost-benefit analysis Project management Linear Programming Analytic Hierarchy Process Purpose(s) resource allocation business process improvement capital planning save time,$ semi-structured & unstructured problems Technologies for decision support

  11. A Generic Tool - Analytic Hierarchy Process • How? • Create a Hierarchy of Goals and Objectives • Insert Possible Solutions, Uncertainties, Decision Makers • Evaluate through pairwise or other comparative methods • Synthesize the Results • Perform Sensitivity Analysis • Why? - It provides: • Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation • Relative comparisons • A Measure of inconsistency • Implemented in software • Expert Choice, Criterium, others • Many proven uses • shows flexibility For detail see:http://mdm.gwu.edu/forman/

  12. Where has AHP been used? • IBM Benchmarking for Baldridge Award • IBM A/S 400 Configuration • Boeing Supercomputer Selection • Digital Outsourcing Vendor Selection • U.S. Army Base Closings • U.S. Navy CVX Platform • Israeli Air Force Fighter Selection • THOUSANDS of other examples http://www.expertchoice.com/testimonials/

  13. A Challenge • Which PDA should the our College adopt, pick any 3, e.g. • Casio Cassiopeia E-15 • Palm Vx • Handspring Visor Deluxe Only strict requirement is that the price should be under $400. For information on these options go to CNET (URL below) and click on handhelds http://computers.cnet.com/

  14. An Exercise • Objectives: • To provide a mechanism for understanding the theoretical concepts behind individual decision technology • To provide hands-on experience in the evaluation of a similar issue facing many members of the CIO community • Methodology: • 1) We will first work individually and create a simple model - selecting a car. • 2) You will then be divided into a group - each containing 3 members. • 3) Your Goal is to: “Select a PDA Tool” • 4) You may receive a demonstration of the Next Generation Tools – e.g. a) Jornada b) Palm c) Handspring • 5) Your group should create four criteria necessary to judge selection • 6) One person in your group, with the aid of the others should start up & create the hierarchial model using Expert Choice, • 7) As a group you would do the evaluation using the WhatIF feature. • 8) If time allows your group will present its results to the class and justify the rationale for its decision

  15. Summary • There is a need for improved decision-making, • The environment dictates improved methods. • The information infrastructure is being developed. • Improved decision-making can be an acquired skill.

  16. http://www.expertchoice.com/testimonials/ Applications • Downsizing Military Facilities • Patient versus Physician Preferences • Selection of Flood Control Projects • Management Reorganization • Productivity in Software Development • How to Get Funds • Marines Step Smartly • Tactical R&D Project Prioritization • Assessing the Risks of an FAA Emergency Communications • Accounting Research using the AHP • Strategic Planning in the Military • Expert Choice and Strategy Implementation • Selecting Teams to Respond in Medical Disasters • Promoting Shared Health Care Decision Making • Developing a Merit Compensation Plan in an Academic Setting • Prioritizing Telecommunications for Long Range R & D Planning • Easing the Traffic in Istanbul – At What Price? • Deciding Which Navy Master Jet Bases to Close • Customer And Company Values Count in Value-Based Analysis • Banks Place Their Bets on Technology • Fantastico! Says Argentine Congress • Expert Choice software is the choice of B.C. Ferries! • Expert Choice Software Helps Make Green Decisions on Environment and Bottom Line • Inter-American Development Bank Checks Expert Choice Software with Interest and Approval • Expert Choice Software helps PECO make Powerful Decisions • Expert Choice Aids Decision Making to keep Savannah River Site Remediation Flowing • ERP Software Selection • Steers the Direction for Special Warfare Training • Ford Drives Ahead • AHP Helps San Diego Padres Reach World Series • Streamlines Clinical IS Acquisition • AHP in Environmental Impact Evaluations (EIE) • Decisions in Offshore Development Projects • Measuring and Interpreting Information • Budget Allocation at Woods Hole Fisheries • Selecting Working Fluids - An Engineering Application • Managing National Park Service Resources • Formulating Policies for the Sea of Japan • AHP and CASE • Internal Control Judgments by EDP Auditors • Multicriteria Decision Making with SAS Software • Application of AHP to Quality Management • Budget Allocation • Management in Non-Profit Organizations • Expert Military Judgments • Ranking Architecture Alternatives for the FAA • Using the AHP to Develop and Disseminate Medical Guidelines • Optimizing Quality Costs Through Expert Choice • Selection of Water-Supply Projects Under Drought • Investment Analysis Application • New Bridge to Environmental Application • Choosing the Lunar Lander Propulsion System • Police Officers Evaluation

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