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Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health.

Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health. International Conference on Climate Change Authors: K.S. Lam, W.Y. Fung, W.T. Hung, S.W. Pang, Cathy Lee. Content. Trends of temperature and energy consumption in Hong Kong

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Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health.

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  1. Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health. International Conference on Climate Change Authors: K.S. Lam, W.Y. Fung, W.T. Hung, S.W. Pang, Cathy Lee

  2. Content • Trends of temperature and energy consumption in Hong Kong • Relationship between ambient temperature and power consumption • Relationship between ambient temperature and Malaria/Dengue Fever

  3. HKO Headquarters

  4. HKO Temperature

  5. Extreme Records of Tsim Sha Tsui’s Ambient Temperature

  6. Hong Kong also warming • 0.9 to 1.5ºC in the last century. (Ding XL, 2002). • Tsim Sha Tsui warming rate is higher than the global rate. • Urbanization effect on top of Global warming.

  7. Impact of Global Warming on Energy Consumptionin Hong Kong

  8. Hong Kong Monthly Electricity Consumption

  9. Domestic Electricity and Temperature

  10. Domestic Electricity and Temperature Regression

  11. Domestic Electricity and Temperature Correlation

  12. Commercial Electricity and Temperature Correlation

  13. Same pattern for different years

  14. Correlation:Commercial electricity • Commercial:statistically significance. • The best fitted curve: Linear

  15. When Temperature increase by 1C

  16. Impact on electricity consumption • The averaged percentage changed is calculated from 15 years (1990-2004)

  17. Impact due to Global Warming (electricity consumptions)

  18. Impact on Energy Consumption in Hong Kong • For 1oC, 2ºC and 3ºC temperature rise, the economic impact on total electricity consumptions were HK$1.7 billion, HK$3.59 billion and HK$5.64 billion respectively (based on year 2002 statistics).

  19. Impact of Global Warming on Dengue Fever and Malaria

  20. Dengue Fever • Vector born disease - mosquito. • Transmission potential expressed in Epidemic potential EP

  21. Epidemic Potential • p = survival probability of mosquito • a = biting frequency • n = incubation period • k1 is a constant • all 3 parameters p, a and n depend on ambient temperature

  22. EP a n p Martens, Climatic change, 35, 1997

  23. Epidemic Potential • EP is a function of ambient temperature EP(T) • When ambient temperature increase by 1C • EP(T + 1C) can be computed • change of EP can be expressed as: • EP = EP(T + 1) – EP(T)

  24. EP % of Dengue Fever when temperature increase

  25. Impact of Global Warming on Dengue Fever

  26. EP % of Malaria when temperature increase

  27. Impact of Global Warming on Malaria

  28. Conclusion • Temperature rise is also observed in Hong Kong. • 1C rise is associated with 4.5% increase in total energy use. • 1C rise is associated with 1.2% / 6.7% increase in Dengue Fever / Malaria respectively. • It is confirmed that Hong Kong will be affected by global warming.

  29. End of presentationQuestions

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