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China’s Future Development and Economic Relations with Asia and Latin America

China’s Future Development and Economic Relations with Asia and Latin America. Justin Yifu Lin Peking University and Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. China’s Growth Potential. The current stage of China’s growth is about that of Japan in 1960. Table 1.doc.

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China’s Future Development and Economic Relations with Asia and Latin America

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  1. China’s Future Development and Economic Relations with Asia and Latin America Justin Yifu Lin Peking University and Hong Kong University of Science & Technology

  2. China’s Growth Potential • The current stage of China’s growth is about that of Japan in 1960. Table 1.doc

  3. GDP per Capita, 1950-1992

  4. The FDI to Developing Countries

  5. Is China’s Labor Cost Low? • China’s wage rate is about 1/50 of that in U.S. and Japan • Labor productivity is only 1/25 of U.S. and 1/26 of Japan • US wage level is only 1/3 higher than China per dollar output

  6. Share and Domestic Value Added of Processed Exports

  7. China’s Trade Balance, 1980-2003

  8. China’s Trade Balances • The pattern of China’s trade balance changed around 1992.Table 3.doc

  9. Sources of FDI to China • The changes in trade pattern is related to the relocation of labor-intensive manufacturing industries from East Asia to China through FDI. Table 4.doc

  10. Concluding Remarks (1) • China has the potential to maintain dynamic growth in the coming decades • To realize the growth potential, China needs to complete the transition to market economy • WTO accession will facilitate China’s transition to market economy • China will continue to attract large inflow of FDI. However, the same will be true to other developing countries.

  11. Concluding Remarks (2) • More than half of China’s exports is processed manufacturing goods. • The more is China export, the more China’s import of intermediate products from Asia. • The dynamic growth in GDP and trade will increase China’s import of natural resources from natural resources rich countries in Asia Pacific and Latin American countries

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