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Evaluation of CMIP5 SST

Evaluation of CMIP5 SST. Objective How well do models simulate the observed primary modes of JJA SST variability? Observed modes of concern: Warming Pacific Atlantic Results presented for: Observations Annual mean SSTs Mean JJA SSTs MPI, CCSM and IPSL Mean JJA SSTs.

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Evaluation of CMIP5 SST

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  1. Evaluation of CMIP5 SST Objective • How well do models simulate the observed primary modes of JJA SST variability? • Observed modes of concern: • Warming • Pacific • Atlantic • Results presented for: • Observations • Annual mean SSTs • Mean JJA SSTs • MPI, CCSM and IPSL • Mean JJA SSTs

  2. Annual mean SSTs: observed mode 1: Warming Variance explained in amplitude times series of rotated mode: 27.5% Variance explained in amplitude times series of unrotated mode: 33.6%

  3. Variance explained EOF mode 1 and Rotated mode 1 Note the increase in variance explained in certain grid points in the rotated mode

  4. Annual mean SSTs: observed mode 2: Pacific

  5. Annual mean SSTs: observed mode 3: Atlantic

  6. JJA observed mode 1: Warming

  7. JJA observed mode 2: Pacific

  8. JJA Observed mode 3: Pacific (north central – PDO region)?? Although the loading pattern of rotated mode 3 resembles the PDO, the amplitude time series does not resemble the PDO JJA time series

  9. JJA Observed mode 4: Central Pacific??

  10. JJA Observed mode 5: Atlantic The loading pattern weights the Atlantic and the amplitude time series look similar to the AMO JJA times series

  11. Correlation of REOF1, REOF2 and REOF5 with JJA rainfall over Texas Black dot denotes correlations significant at the 95% confidence level

  12. Some issues • The first (warming) mode in the MPI and IPSL models seem to over-emphasize the Pacific. • Significant positive correlation between warming mode and JJA rainfall is reproduced in the IPSL model but not in CCSM4 and MPI models. • Model loadings of REOF2 (Pacific) have no clear pattern. The CCSM does seem to fare better at weighting the loadings in the Pacific compared to the MPI and IPSL models that do not emphasize any particular ocean basin. • The fifth (Atlantic) mode is best captured in the IPSL model. The CCSM and MPI patterns weight the Pacific rather than the Atlantic. • REOF2 in CCSM and MPI, and REOF5 in all three models, have spurious (not seen in observations) significant positive correlations with JJA rainfall.

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