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Enrollment Projections

Enrollment Projections. Kenmore Town of Tonawanda Union Free School District December 11, 2012 Robin B. Zymroz Office of Student Services. Methodology. Method 1

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Enrollment Projections

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  1. Enrollment Projections Kenmore Town of Tonawanda Union Free School District December 11, 2012 Robin B. Zymroz Office of Student Services

  2. Methodology Method 1 Projection Method 1 uses the survival ratios for the past five years in a particular grade. It arrives at a mean value to use in projecting how many students in the previous grade the prior year will become students in that grade that year. This method is the most accurate for school districts that have not experienced major impacts on their district in recent years.

  3. Methodology Method 2 Projection Method 2 uses the survival ratio for only the current year to project enrollment. This method may be most accurate for your school if it has recently experienced a change in its enrollment trends.

  4. Methodology Method 3 Projection Method 3 uses the average arrived at by method 1 and combines that with the one year ratio used by method 2. The resulting ratio emphasizes current trends in your enrollment while tempering that with the trends of the past. This method will best suit districts that have had fluctuations in their enrollment due to temporary occurrences, but do not expect those occurrences to overwhelmingly impact future enrollment.

  5. BIRTHS FOR ERIE COUNTY 2001 10,812 2002 10,667 2003 10,510 2004 10,207 2005 9,832 2006 9,966 2007 10,020 2008 9,680 2009 9,797 2010 9,769 2011 9,732 2012 9,699

  6. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 – Kenmore West High School Grade 12 plus students not included

  7. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 2 – Kenmore East High School Grade 12 plus students not included

  8. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 – Kenmore Middle School

  9. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 2 – Hoover Middle School

  10. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method1 – Franklin Middle School

  11. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 – Edison Elementary School

  12. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 - Franklin Elementary School

  13. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 – Hamilton Elementary School

  14. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 – Holmes Elementary School

  15. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 3 – Hoover Elementary School

  16. Jefferson Elementary 6 Year Enrollment History

  17. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 – Lindbergh Elementary School

  18. Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 – Roosevelt Elementary School

  19. Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 1

  20. Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 1

  21. Enrollment Projected Five Years DECREASE PERCENTAGE METHOD 1 4.38%

  22. Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 2

  23. Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 2

  24. Enrollment Projected Five Years DECREASE PERCENTAGE METHOD 2 6.22%

  25. Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 3

  26. Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 3

  27. Enrollment Projected Five Years DECREASE PERCENTAGE METHOD 3 5.36%

  28. FIVE YEAR TREND 2008-2012District Buildings

  29. FIVE YEAR TREND 2008-2012PERCENTAGE DECREASE Enrollment decrease 9.52%

  30. Comparison of 2011-12 to 2012-13By District Building (includes grade 12 plus)

  31. 2011-12 to 2012-13 ComparisonPercentage Decrease Enrollment decrease 2.26

  32. QUESTIONS

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