ETSU Fall 2014 Enrollment Projections

1. ETSUFall 2014 Enrollment Projections Markov chain Analysis Mike Hoff, Director Institutional Research 10.31.2013

2. Enrollment projection goal • To estimate the ETSU Fall 2014 Enrollment • Use a model that allows for testing recruitment and retention scenarios • The results will be used to determine how far from goal, 15,500, ETSU appears to be • To provide data which will inform defining college level enrollment improvement plans

3. Assumptions • Assuming a consistent external environment, and assuming that we make no changes to address recruitment and retention, the enrollment and progression patterns of students by class from year1 to year2 will remain stable • This allows for testing enrollment improvement plans because the variable impact is real and measurable • Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is approximately stable and recognized as a known quantity

4. Assumptions continued • First-time and continuing freshmen can be combined as a total freshmen count • Masters students, graduate specials, and ed specials can be combined as a total for projection only, but may be divided for goal setting

5. Model • Markov chain • Is a time-series model that looks at past practice to predict future outcome • For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks students, by status, from year1 to year2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class • The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year2, to calculate enrollment for year3

6. Model continued • Markov chain was chosen because • It is used by other similar institutions, both in-state, and out-of-state • It uses only institutional data • Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year projections • Population based models were rejected due to reliance on external projections • ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected because of complexity without increased accuracy

7. Timeframe • Data were collected by year for the years 2008 – 2013, • These years were used to establish a validity test to understand the margin of error in the model • 2008 was the first year in Banner • The data were then paired by year into two year groups to allow for projecting the next years enrollment • i.e. 2008 and 2009 were used to project 2010, etc.

8. 2014 Projected enrollment results of replicating the status quo The projection for each year is a function of the actual enrollments from the two most recent prior years

9. Credibility: Is there a margin of error? • Yes, a very slim one, on average +/- 1.196% • That yields a projected enrollment range of 14,257 – 14,603 • In other words, the model was, based on 4-years history, 98.8% accurate

10. What happened to all our students?

11. What happened to all our students? • 39% are leaving, either through graduation or dropout • 19% are graduating • 20% are leaving through dropout

12. Who are the Undergraduate Dropouts?

13. Who are the undergraduate dropouts

14. Who are the undergraduate dropouts – (Exclude UD & ND)

15. Undergraduate data points of note • 1,100 of the 3,212 New and Continuing Freshmen dropout or stop out • Sophomore Enrollment is break-even, new & returning students are almost equal to dropouts • Large Senior population leaving before graduation

16. Who are the Graduate Dropouts?

17. Who are the graduate dropouts

18. Who are the graduate dropouts

19. The Buc Stops here! Student recruitment and retention is everyone's responsibility Who needs to be involved? What does it all mean?

20. Who does it involve? Actions by offices such as these…

21. The Role of Colleges, Departments, and Programs Recruitment Retention

22. What must we do • For ETSU to reach the 15,500 goal we must increase recruitment by 8% and retention by 6.5% or some combination yielding at least 1,070 students • An 8% increase in recruitment is 440 students • A 6.5% increase in retention equals 630 students

23. Recruitment

24. Everyone recruits!

25. Recruitment goals by college

26. Retention

27. Retention is not just a freshmen problem!

28. Retention goals by student level

29. Retention goals by college

30. College level recruitment and retention goals

31. Overall recruitment and retention goals by college

32. What is my part of the pie? • We created the breakdown by college to ensure that as we grow we maintain the proportional distribution of students • These goals will be achieved through a mix of college level and university level activities • The goal today is to identify what is the most reasonable distribution of that responsibility

33. Recruitment: Working Hypothesis • Why are students coming? • Undergraduate • A majority of the work is being done by offices charged with carrying out that function effectively • Smaller share of the work is being carried out by colleges departments • Graduate • Colleges, departments, programs, and faculty play a more direct role in recruitment

34. Retention: Working Hypothesis • Why are students staying? • Undergraduate • A majority of the work is being carried out by colleges, departments, programs and faculty • Smaller share of the work done by offices charged with carrying out that function effectively • Graduate • An even larger majority of the work is being carried out by colleges, departments, programs, and faculty

35. Options • Status Quo • Keep doing the same thing and assume things will ‘work out’ • Change • Use data to develop a plan to have a positive impact on student retention, and enrollment

36. Results of the status quo • Absent a well executed, and successful, enrollment improvement plan ETSU’s enrollment in Fall 2014 is projected to be 14,430 • 1,070 students short of 15,500 goal “Status Quo means falling behind”

37. Final reflections on the status quo • Model was 98% accurate over the past 4 years • Model shows we are down, to-goal, 1,070 students • Reaching the goal is best achieved through a combination of Recruitment and Retention

38. Your Goal: Discuss College Level Enrollment Improvement Plans

39. Request: Present a plan in which you believe! • Plans: • Must be college specific • Must be focused on the proportional share of enrollment improvement, using the framework of the working hypothesis • Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona fide improvement tactics • Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented • Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals • Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives • Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested pending available funds • Should depict college assessment of risk

40. Don’t limit your plan • Consider • Pedagogy & Delivery Systems • Curriculum • Bridge Courses • New Markets (International & Domestic) • New Collaborations • Alternative Schedules & Calendars • New Partnerships • New Student Populations • With distinctive career goals • Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning, International, Out-of-state, etc.) • Trade impacted workers • Service to others

41. Recruitment Responsibility • What responsibility for recruitment should reasonably reside with – • Individual College, Academic Department, Program, and Faculty • Administrative and Academic Support functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

42. Retention Responsibility • What responsibility for retention should reasonably reside with – • Individual College, Academic Department, Program, and Faculty • Administrative and Academic Support functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

43. Student Success ThroughFocused Recruitment and Retention Enrollment Planning