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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt January 19, 2011

AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt January 19, 2011. EVALUATION OF PROJECTIONS. Total Enrollment 2010-11 Actual 4,399 (10/01/10) Projections 4,399 High K/High Migration 4,394 Middle K/High Migration 4,352 Middle K/Low Migration 4,352 Low K/Low Migration.

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt January 19, 2011

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  1. AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSHazel H. ReinhardtJanuary 19, 2011

  2. EVALUATION OF PROJECTIONS • Total Enrollment 2010-11 • Actual • 4,399 (10/01/10) • Projections • 4,399 High K/High Migration • 4,394 Middle K/High Migration • 4,352 Middle K/Low Migration • 4,352 Low K/Low Migration

  3. EVALUATION OF PROJECTIONS • Kindergarten • Actual • 363 (10/01/10) • Projections • 365 Low and Middle Assumptions • 370 High Assumption

  4. PREDICTORS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE • Community characteristics • Distribution of students by grade • Resident births • Education choice decisions • Housing: type and increase by type

  5. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Austin Public Schools’ enrollment growth in the past four years is atypical in Minnesota • White, not Hispanic, enrollment declined while minority, especially Hispanic, enrollment increased • Minority students are now 31% of the student body • District residents are less likely to chose other education options than students statewide

  6. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Austin Public Schools’ capture rate of district residents rose over the past ten years, which is also atypical in Minnesota • Resident births in Mower County and Austin City increased dramatically, which is a good indicator of future enrollment growth • The current grade distribution by grade predicts enrollment growth • Austin Public Schools are projected to grow

  7. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Enrollment is projected to increase from 4,373 to 4,739 (2014-15) to 4,967 (2019-20) based on the lowest projection • Minority students will continue to be a large share of the student body and may account for nearly 40% of all students in five years • The net in migration of the past year may be an anomaly • When used in projections, the projections are high

  8. K-12 ENROLLMENT • K-12 enrollment is 161 students higher than in 2000-01 • Prior to 2005-06 enrollment declined • 2005-06 was first year of all day kindergarten • Past four years, enrollment up 160 students or 3.8%

  9. K-12 ENROLLMENT

  10. RACE/ETHNICITY

  11. ENROLLMENT CHANGE • Natural increase • Fall kindergarten class is larger than the previous year’s Grade 12 • Natural increase often results in enrollment growth • Net migration tends to be negative • Past year a big exception

  12. COMPONENTS OF CHANGE

  13. NONPUBLIC CHOICE • Nonpublic school enrollment decreased • Nonpublic schools enroll: • 8.1% of the district’s school age population • 8.7% in Minnesota • Home schools enroll: • 1.4% of the district’s school age population • 1.7% in Minnesota

  14. PUBLIC OPTIONS • Open enrollment in (128) • 2.0% of Austin Public School enrollment (2008-09) • Open enrollment out (153) • 3.0% of Austin’s school age population (2008-09) • 4.9% of Minnesota students opt for open enrollment

  15. PUBLIC OPTIONS • Charter schools (0) • None of Austin’s school age population • 3.6% of Minnesota students

  16. DISTRICT SCHOOL AGE POPULATION • District’s school age population increasing • 2003-04 to 2008-09 • 192 or 4.2% • Austin Public Schools’ capture rate • 87.2% in 2008-09 • 85.8% in 2003-04

  17. ENROLLMENT BY GRADE • Predictor of enrollment change • Kindergarten up in the past four years • 2005-06 with all day kindergarten, kindergarten was 384 students. Since then, ranged from 356 to 376 • Grade 12 largest in 2009-10 (361 students) followed by 2008-09 (325 students) • Elementary grades (K through 5) larger than current high school grades • Predicts enrollment increase

  18. ENROLLMENT BY GRADE

  19. FUTURE • Trends where confidence is high • Aging • Decrease in the school age population per household • Shift in size of key adult age groups, which will affect demand for housing • Low fertility • Enrollment cycles

  20. FUTURE • Unknowns • Duration of the collapse of the housing market and tight credit • Affects mobility • Housing supply • Economic recovery • Affects immigration

  21. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS • Two methods • Cohort survival • Kindergarten (births as proxy) • Migration (survival rates) • Housing unit • Housing units • School age child per dwelling unit ratio • Public school capture rate

  22. RESIDENT BIRTHS

  23. KINDERGARTEN POOL • What is it? Adjusting births to required age to enroll in kindergarten • Births reported by calendar year • Must be 5 as of September 1 enroll in kindergarten • About one-third born six years earlier and two-thirds born five years earlier

  24. KINDERGARTEN POOL

  25. MOWER COUNTY BIRTH PROJECTIONS

  26. MINNESOTA PROJECTED BIRTHS

  27. KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS

  28. NET MIGRATION SUMMARY

  29. NET IN MIGRATION BY GRADE • Change in net flow • Kindergarten to Grade 1 until all day kindergarten; now a small net flow out • Net inflow from • Grade 5 to Grade 6 • Grade 8 to Grade 9 • Net outflow from • Grade 10 to Grade 11 • Grade 11 to Grade 12

  30. NET MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS • Two assumptions • Low is the average of survival rates of the past four years • High is the average of survival rates of the past two years

  31. MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS

  32. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

  33. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

  34. HOUSING UNIT METHOD • Change in age of adults • 2010-2020 • Population in household formation years (20-34 yrs) increases less than from 2000-2010 • Decrease in population in the “move up” housing years (35-54 yrs) • Usually have children in the household • Prefer single-family detached units • Huge increase in population 65+ years

  35. ADULT POPULATION

  36. ROLE OF HOUSING • Dwelling unit type affects the school age child per household ratio • Only single-family detached units have a high yield of school age children • New dwelling units yield more students than older units • As existing units turnover (sold), the school age child per household goes down, except for the very newest units • Value of units affects school age child ratio

  37. HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS • 540 additional households by 2019-20 • Increase school age child per household • 0.41 in 2008 • 0.44 in 2014-15 • 0.45 in 2019-20 • Increase public school capture rate • 87.2% in 2008-09 • 88% in 2014-15 and 2019-20

  38. HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS

  39. PROJECTIONS COMPARISON

  40. PROJECTIONS COMPARISON

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