Outcome of THORPEX for operational climate services on extreme events in Japan

1. Outcome of THORPEX for operational climate services on extreme events in Japan Shuhei MAEDA Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

2. 1.Introduction • Two new operational climate services on extreme events in Japan are introduced as an example of outcomes of THORPEX • First is “Early Warning Information on Extreme Weather (EWIEW)” :(started in2008) • Second is “Statements on primary factors on Extreme Climate Events” :(2007)

3. Outcome of THORPEX for operational services THORPEX related researches on extreme events and their predictabilities Enhancement of forecaster ‘s abilities to use NWP products with deepened knowledge on extreme events and their predictabilities Improvements of NWP systems Main route Sub route Improvements of operational weather/climate services on extreme events

4. 2.Early Warning Information on Extreme Weather Event (EWIEW) • aims to mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme events on socio-economic activities in various sectors such as agriculture. • is issued twice a week when a high probability (30% or more) of extremely high/low temperature is predicted in the week starting from five to eight days ahead of the date of announcement. As one of the background factors to start to issue EWIEW in 2008, it is considered that understanding of predictability and mechanism of extreme climate conditions has been improved through THORPEX-related researches .

5. Example:Extreme warm event in early Nov. 2011 Western Japan experienced the warmest first ten days of Nov. since 1961. 10 day mean temperature anomalies at 850hPa in 1-10th Nov. 2011

6. Propagation of Stationary Rossby wave packet along the Polar front jet Stream function anomalies at 200hPa along the black line in the right figure,2011/10/25-11/15 10 day mean Stream function anomalies at 200hPa,2011.11.1-10 time Wave length≒8000km Group velocity ≒25m/s Distance from blocking high in Northern Europe(km)

7. Propagation of Stationary Rossby wave packet along the Sub tropical jet Stream function anomalies at 200hPa along the black line in the right figure,2011/10/25-11/15 10 day mean Stream function anomalies at 200hPa,2011.11.1-10 Wave length≒6000km Group velocity ≒25m/s Enhanced near Pakistan in the end of Oct. Distance from blocking high in Northern Europe(km)

8. Enhancement of the Rossby wave packet by convection over east north Indian Ocean in the end of Oct. 2011 Stream function and OLR anomalies Rossby wave source anomalies Shade: Rossby wave source anomalies at 200hPa. 10-6 /s /day Contour : 5day mean Stream function anomalies at 200hPa Shade : 5day mean OLR anomalies Arrows : Wave activity flux (Takaya and Nakamura, 2000) at 200hPa

9. Origin of active convection over western Indian Ocean TIGGE MJO index forecast (initial:2011102412UTC) from Mio MATSUEDA’s TIGGE page (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_MJO.html) ・Strong MJO (at peak, the second strongest since 1979) propagated from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean in the end of Oct. ・The MJO weekend over Indian Ocean ・So, active convection over western Indian Ocean is triggered by the MJO.

10. Could we predict the event? Intial: 2011.10.24 7day mean temperature anomaly at 850hPa in Western Japan850. Red: Obs. Others:FCST 7day day mean Stream function anomalies and wave activity flux at 200hPa from 11/3-11/9 . a) Obs. b) FCST ℃ a) ・The event was well predicted from 2011.10.24 initial (Rossby wave packets along PFJ and STJ which was enhanced by MJO related convection, and extremely high Temperature) b)

11. EWIEW issued on 25th Oct. 2011 ・JMA issued EWIEW for “extreme high temperature” for almost whole Japan from 10/30 to 11/8 on 25th Oct. 2011. Extremely High ・EWIEW is used in several sectors such as agriculture, electric power, health and disaster prevention. Extremely Low EWIEWon JMA HP

12. 3.Statements on primary factors on Extreme Climate Events ・When extreme event occurs, the public wants to know the causes or background of the event. ・To provide information on extreme climate events based on latest research outcome, the Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events which consists of climate scientists in Japan was established in 2007. ・Close relationship between JMA and experts in research community through cooperative THORPEX-related activities, such as Japanese THORPEX Study Conference, was important to start the new service.

13. Missions of the Advisory Panel • Climatological analysis and research on extremeclimate events • Advice on information that JMA prepares in regardto extreme climate events, including their causes and mechanisms • Recommendations on the application of results from climatological research on extremeevents to JMA’s climate services and activities

14. Members of the Advisory Panel • YAMAZAKI, Koji ：Hokkaido University • IWASAKI, Toshiki：Tohoku University • KIMOTO, Masahide (Chairperson) ：University of Tokyo • NAKAMURA, Hisashi (Vice-Chairperson) ：University of Tokyo • MASUMOTO,Yukio　 ： University of Tokyo • YASUNARI, Tetsuzo：Nagoya University • MUKOUGAWA, Hitoshi ： Kyoto University • HIROOKA, Toshihiko ：Kyushu University • FUJIBE,Fumiaki ：MRI • OSE, Tomoaki：MRI ( Formermembers) • YAMAGATA, Toshio ：University of Tokyo • KITOH, Akio :MRI

15. Schematic figure of the framework Analysis tools of extreme climate events Research Community J M A Observational data, analysis tools, operational monitoring informationon climate system Sharing data, tools, and information on current status of climate system Scientific comments on climate monitoring, suggestion on improvement of analysis Extreme event!! Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events Annual meeting Review of Panel activities, extreme climate events in the year Extraordinary meeting Analysis of the event Timely statement on causes of the extreme climate event Regular provision of related information

16. Example of provided figure in the statement Schematic chart of primary factors of extremely hot summer 2010 in Japan Japanese major newspaper (4thSep. 2010)

17. 4. Future plan • In next winter, EWIEW will be improved by including information on severe snowfall. In few years, JMA will start to provide two-week NWP products on a daily basis and one-month forecast products on extreme climate events. • In order to implement such plans, we must further deepen our knowledge on extreme climate events and their predictability through researches relevant to THORPEX.