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Sociological Factors Impacting Beach Attendance

Sociological Factors Impacting Beach Attendance. Applications to Beach Hazards Risk Communication. Megan Dodson Beach Hazards Program Manager National Weather Service Marquette, MI. How does the NWS inform the Public About The Various Beach Hazards?.

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Sociological Factors Impacting Beach Attendance

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  1. Sociological Factors Impacting Beach Attendance Applications to Beach Hazards Risk Communication Megan Dodson Beach Hazards Program Manager National Weather Service Marquette, MI

  2. How does the NWS inform the Public About The Various Beach Hazards?

  3. NWS Risk Communication: Recreational Beach Forecasts (SRF) • Issued Daily from Memorial Day through Mid September • Swim Risk: Denotes the Risk of Strong Currents and Waves • Low, Moderate, High Risk • Swim Risk Outlook [Optional]

  4. NWS Risk Communication: Beach Hazards Statements • A supplement to the Rec. Beach Forecast • Heighten Awareness on Critical Beach Days [appears on the WWA map] • Provide Additional Decision Support To Beach Managers on Critical Beach Days • What Constitutes a Critical Beach Day? • High Swim Risk + Increased Beach Attendance • High likelihood of a drowning/rescue incident occurring

  5. What Conditions Increase Beach Attendance?

  6. Sociological Factors Impacting Beach Attendance McCarty’s Cove Study: Lake Superior Marquette, MI Great Lakes Current Incident Database • 433 Current Related Rescues/Fatalities • Air T, Water T, Cloud Cover, Precipitation, Day of the Week, Holiday • Incidents by Lake • Beach Attendance over 97 days • Air T, Cloud Cover, Precipitation, Day of the Week, Holiday Holland State Park Seasonal Beach Attendance vs. SW Lower MI Seasonal Climate Summary • Beach Attendance (4 Years) • Avg. seasonal Max T • Avg. Lake MI Water T

  7. Great Lakes Current Incident Database Precipitation: Only 4.2% of incidents occurred while it was raining!

  8. Swim Season on the Great Lakes

  9. Great Lakes Current Incident DatabaseCloudy, Rainy Days 85% Air T≥65⁰F 61% T-Storms Generally Short & Light Water Temperatures on Cool, Cloudy Days Air T: 60-64⁰ F…….Water T: 70 to 75⁰F Air T: 55-59⁰F……Water T: 60⁰F (only 1 incident) Showery vs Steady [2-5 hr period]

  10. McCarty’s Cove: Beach Attendance Study onLake Superior Marquette, MI Increased beach attendance with warmer temperatures Decrease in beach attendance with cloudy skies Partly-Mostly cloudy average includes the two days with highest beach attendance: 1500 (July 4th), 2000 (NMU Welcome Picnic Campus Cru, Aug 25).

  11. McCarty’s Cove: Beach Attendance Study onLake Superior in Marquette, MI Rain: *Includes Steady and Showery Precipitation *Average Beach Attendance With Steady Rain Only: 31 *Beach Attendance does not mean visitors were swimming!

  12. Southwestern Lower Michigan:Yearly State Park Beach Attendance • SW LOWER MI STATS (GRR): • 2009: 5th Coldest Summer on Record (1985-2009) • 2012: 10th Hottest summer on record • (1985-2012) • 2013: Coldest summer since 2009, wildest temperature swings occurred during the peak swim season State Parks Used: Grand Haven, Ludington, Muskegon, and Holland State Parks

  13. Weather Conditions Summary Favorable Beach Days would be Characterized by: • Air & Water Temperatures ≥65 F • Sunny to Partly-Mostly Cloudy [Temperature Dependent] • Dry or Isolated showers/T-storms [Temperature Dependent] How Does Beach Attendance Vary on Holidays and Weekends? What About Time of Day?

  14. Additional Sociological Factors: Time Of Day MAX T Diurnal Temp Trend

  15. Additional Sociological Factors: Day of the Week

  16. Additional Sociological Factors: Holidays & Weekends More than 50% of rip current rescues in east-central Florida occurred on major holidays and weekends due to increased tourism (Lascody, 1998) In a studies on rip current fatalities across the U.S., most occurred on weekends (Gensini & Ashley, 2009; Paxton, 2011) • In the McCarty’s Cove Study on Lake Superior, Beach attendance spiked from an average of ~250 visitors/day to 1500 visitors on the 4th of July (A Thursday). • Weather: Sunny to Partly Cloudy, Max T: 81ºF • In the GLCID, only 5% of victims drowned on the 4th of July Holiday (2nd-6th). • Only 3% occurred on Labor Day and Memorial Day combined. • Weather and Lake condition dependent

  17. Generalized ConclusionsAbout Beach Attendance Beach Attendance increases on Holidays and Weekends, especially Sunday People don’t swim at night or early in the morning (midnight to 6 am LDT). People don’t swim when the air temperature is <55ºF. People don’t swim on cloudy rainy days unless: *Precipitation is short lived, showery [less than 2-3 hrs]. *Temperature is ≥65ºF . *Warmer water temps (Majority Tw >65ºF).

  18. Operational Applications • Beach Hazards Statements: • Heightening public awareness on days we expect a large number of incidents • High waves/dangerous currents + high beach attendance • Use the sociological factors to lighten operational workload/limit unnecessary issuance of statements: • Less swimmers = less risk of an incident (all other things equal) • Let the Recreational Beach Forecast speak for itself • No hard & fast rules, use forecaster discretion

  19. NWS MQT Statement Guidance High Swim Risk Max T 55ºF-64ºF Max T≥ 65ºF Max T<55ºF No BH.S Issue BH.S Water T< 50F Yes No Which Weather Describes Today Best? Sunny/Partly to Mostly Cloudy Dry or intermittent Rain/T-Storms Steady/Frequent Rain & Clouds Holiday? Issue BH.S No Yes No BH.S Issue BH.S

  20. Questions? • Megan.Dodson@Noaa.gov Lake Superior, May 5, 2014

  21. References • Dodson, M., 2013: Studies on Beach Attendance: McCarty’s Cove, Lake Superior and Southwest Lower Michigan. Local Study at NWS Marquette, Michigan. Contact NWS Marquette for questions. • Dodson, M., Guenther, D.,2013: Great Lakes Current Incident Database. • Local Study at NWS Marquette, Michigan. Contact NWS Marquette for • any questions. • Evanoff, M., 2013. Beach Attendance Statistics from Michigan State Parks. Personal Correspondence. • Lascody, R.L., 1998: East Central Florida Rip Current Program. National Weather Digest, 22(2), 25-30. • National Weather Service: Grand Rapids, Northern Indiana, Marquette, 2009-2013. Beach Hazards Statements, Rec. Beach Forecasts, and Climate Summaries. • Paxton, C., 2011: Meteorological Data Analysis of Rip Current Drowning. Rip Currents: Beach Safety, Physical Oceanography, and Wave Modeling, S. Leatherman and J. Fletemeyer, Eds., CRC Press, 161-174.

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