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Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatre Using simple models to assess options

Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatre Using simple models to assess options. Noel Corrigan 26 ISMOR. Content. Intro and background The SIT vision BAE Systems User Needs Available Technology Data gathering Fully Burdened Cost of Energy Model The study Findings Where next.

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Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatre Using simple models to assess options

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  1. Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatre Using simple models to assess options Noel Corrigan 26 ISMOR

  2. Content • Intro and background • The SIT vision • BAE Systems • User Needs • Available Technology • Data gathering • Fully Burdened Cost of Energy Model • The study • Findings • Where next

  3. Background to the Vision - Real Demands • Technology Development • Investment in renewable energy technologies Transactions$100 Billion estimated in 2006, (UN, New Energy Finance) • Energy Demand Increasing • Energy demand predicted to increase more than 50%by 2030 and may triple by 2050 • Over 70% of this growth is from developing countries –shifting economic power to the East • Peak Oil. No increase in supply. Driving NewEnergy Solutions Governments imposing regulations andincentives to utilise renewable energy Causing prices of traditionalenergy sources to rise • Climate Change Impact • CO2 emissions forecast to increase by 55% by 2030 • Climate Change is causing changes in rainfall patterns,sea levels are rising, glaciers are retreating, arctic sea-iceis thinning and extreme weather is increasing • Security of Supply Concerns • Can the nation get enough fuel for the forces’ needs? • Long-term tightening of supply among OPEC countries • EIA predicts that Fossil fuels running out: oil –35 yrs? natural Gas - 60 yrs? & coal - 230yrs? Peak Oil? • Is the military supply chain secure from enemy attack? ....and Shared Needs Across Sectors Cost implications Regulatory & CSR Targets Civil There is commonality of needs in the military and civil sectors– however priorities will shift depending on objectives and specific situations Cost Core Needs Indicative Weighting Security of Supply Military (Battlefield) Effectiveness Source: EIA

  4. SIT Capability Vision Reducing operational dependency on fossil fuels – establish the options for supply of future forces Civilian market energy sources and technologies options Alternative system design and usage Alternative power management sources & approaches Fuel usage & energy needs vs. likely supply issues Mission management, training & infrastructure development

  5. Imperative for change Clear energy needs across Defence Priorities Hypothesis that up to 15% of Defence Budget is energy related Save lives Senior level UK MoD sponsorship obtained for modelling energy supply Reduce logistical ‘tail’ Validated modelling and analysis Save money Alignment with UK Defence Technology Plan

  6. BAE Systems Approach UserRequirements TechnologyWatch DataCollection Modelling and Simulation Targeted Analysis 1 Targeted Analysis 2 Targeted Analysis 3 Funded by BAE Systems Funded by MoD

  7. MoD Fossil Fuel use

  8. Coherent Engagement and Support from all MoD Partners Measures Carbon Military Effectiveness (e.g. FE@R and Wait time) Cost Security of Supply Scenario Operational Scenario Logistics MDAL Activity Operations Buildings & Infrastructure Training Doctrine Organisation Sources DCDC ACDS Log Ops PJHQ Stakeholders DEC (ELS) FLCs DCDC Defence Estates Sustainable Procurement PO SIT DTIC Sc Gateways DFG Air Sea Land LE JSC E in C. DRLC PJHQ JF Log C Joint Overseas 104 Logs Bde DEC (GM) DE&S SUV IPT DE&S GSG DE&S BISI IPT DE&S MPPS IPT DE&S FSC IPT

  9. Available technologies Smart Grid management Central power station HED Heat pumps Increase efficient generation Reduce demand Sustainable buildings Technology CHP Pyrolysis Plant m Nuclear Non-fossil generation Recycle energy Anaerobic digester Photovoltaics Wind Scavenging

  10. Fuel use on Op Herrick FOB NowZad Bastion Diesel £1.00/L Fire Bse Dwyer

  11. Afghan Scenario-specific modelling • Day by day simulation of the overland energy supply chain • Modelling variations in the supply chain efficiency • Understanding effort on contractor routes • Measuring security of supply Contractor effort Military effort

  12. Cost Model Activity Model(s) £ £ Training £ £ £ £ Estates Operations £ Fully Burdened Cost of Energy Model* Modelling the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset… • Validated by MOD Scrutineers - “validation method should be disseminated within BAE Systems as best practice” • FBCE as a key sustainability metric - MOD Climate Change Strategy definition (analogous to use of FBCF in US) Input Data • Output Data • Fully Burdened Cost • Logistical Burden • Effectiveness • Security of Supply • CO2 & emissions Demand Data By year Energy Supply Chain Scenario n Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Cross DLoD Cost Data * UK and European Patent Pending

  13. The Study Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 Activity 4 Generate & categorise options List of options Evaluate & downselect options Set of 5 packaged technology options Analyse options in detail Report Final report Develop scenario specific tools Populate FBCE toolset

  14. Option generation Option Generation: Identified 100+ concepts/technologies Option Categorisation: Scored options against a set of attributes Evaluation & Down Selection: Reviewed/grouped options into five packages Demand Reduction Efficient Generation Vehicle Improvements Large Scale Renewable Generation Small Scale Renewable Generation Package 0 Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4 • All options to exploit smart power management and improvements to expeditionary campaign infrastructure

  15. Fully burdened cost savings These savings are from the energy supply chain alone, keeping logistic method constant. The opportunities for optimising the supply chain would bring additional cost saving benefits

  16. Small Scale Renewables Package Results Fuel saving Reduction to 60% of current diesel demand in-theatre at full implementation (57% of baseline demand at main bases,17% at FOBs) Reduced logistic effort To deliver this reduced volume, you would save: • 518 jingly tanker journeys/year by Supreme • 243 close support tanker journeys/year on CLPs (assuming current storage capacity remains at FOBs but tankers are sent only on threshold) Cost Saving Fully Burdened Cost Saving ~ £10m per year (current fully burdened spend on Diesel in theatre = £60.2m)

  17. The Study requirement - satisfied • Identified options for fuel savings in support of the Afghanistan Theatre. • Conducted initial assessment of viability and benefits of options • Detailed assessment of impact on the fully burdened cost of energy • Recommendations made regarding technologies • that could be deployed forthwith • that could be Technology Demonstrators • that could be subject to further research; and • areas for further analysis.

  18. Supporting the Capability Vision - Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels • Working in partnership with a pan-MOD stakeholder community • D Scrutiny validated approach and toolset with cross-domainapplication: • Land – Current operations • Air – RAF Base & aircraft fleet activities • Sea – Alternative marine fuels • SupportingSustainable Procurement • – FBCE is a key sustainability metric referred to in the MOD Climate Change Strategy • – Opportunity for FBCE to support Future Surface Combatant Assessment Phase A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…

  19. “BAE Systems work has kick started the Energy & Power Management initiative and facilitated Paul Stein's vision” David Wilkes, SIT Strategy “Understanding the fully burdened cost of energy will be key to future acquisition decision making” Ian Brookes, Head of the Sustainable Procurement Team, DE&S

  20. Annex A – Supporting Material

  21. Major Assumptions • The figures consider only the military operated facilities in theatre at the time data were collected. These were the Main Operating Bases (MOBs): Bastion, Gereshk, Lashkagar and Kandahar Airfield; and the Forward Operating Bases (FOBs): Fire Base Dwyer, Delhi, Edinburgh, Inkerman, Now Zad, Robinson, and Sangin. As the operation has developed the size, location and names of the bases have changed. • We have assumed that given no intervention aimed at saving energy, the annual energy demands for the lifetime of the operation will remain at 2008 levels. We have assumed that this current situation persists through the life of the Operation; that is the commitment and military strategy remain unchanged, so that energy demands remain constant. Further, we have assumed that the cost of fuel remains constant. We have assumed that the operation will last until at least 2020. • In the analysis of Packages we have assumed that the force protection levels are independent of the quantity of fuel being carried by the Combat Logistic Patrol and so constant. We have assumed that the total cost of the force protection for the CLP is allocated to the fully burdened fuel cost. • We have assumed that military effectiveness is not compromised provided that the bases maintain fuel stockpiles at mandated levels (that is they always have sufficient to cover immediate requirements).

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