Poverty at the Crossroads

1. Poverty at the Crossroads John Stapleton January 18, 2011 London, Ontario

2. Contents • Living in the age of Alpha Paradigm “smackdown” • The Changing nature of work • The Big Picture: social assistance in the context of Income Security in Canada & Ontario • Social assistance – the ‘great megatrend’ • The last three big recessions • Profound change in who receives welfare • Social assistance and Minimum wages • The Welfare Diet, food inflation and food deserts • Some tentative conclusions Poverty at the crossroads

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4. GDP in Canada is $1.3 Trillion • Government share: about 37% • Non-Profit Sector: about 2-3% • Private Sector: 60% • Highest government shares include France and Iraq (60+%) • Lowest include Haiti and Singapore (10% or lower) Poverty at the crossroads

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7. THE LABOUR MARKET – DIFFERENT WORK CATEGORIES Change in Share of Employment, Canada (Richard Florida) Poverty at the crossroads 7

8. Employment trends by broad sector and skill categories, Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, 1997-2009 ‘000s employed CDN $ STARTS RISING RECESSION Poverty at the crossroads 8

9. The Big Picture • Show me the money! • By Program • By Target Group • Federal • Provincial Poverty at the crossroads

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16. Social Assistance: the Megatrends Poverty at the crossroads

17. The three last big recessions • The post recession shift: • Recession of 1980-82 – welfare peaks in March 1983 • Recession of 1990-91 – welfare peaks in March 1994 • Great Recession of 2008-09 – welfare peaks in March 2011 or........ Poverty at the crossroads

18. The three last big recessions Poverty at the crossroads

19. A closer look Poverty at the crossroads

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22. Canada ‘in the middle’ with support for single parents - OECD Poverty at the crossroads

23. Canada ‘at the bottom’ in support for single (non-aged) persons - OECD Poverty at the crossroads

26. Profound Caseload Change • In 1988 in Ontario, persons with disabilities comprised 32% of social assistance • In 2010, persons with disabilities comprise 60+ % of social assistance and growing • Lone parents in 1995 -2000 equalled singles • Since 2000: • singles have increased by 57% • Lone parent decreased by 21% Poverty at the crossroads

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31. Single People dominate welfare applications Poverty at the crossroads

32. Younger Singles dominate welfare applications Poverty at the crossroads

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37. Minimum Wages and Social Assistance • In Ontario: • Minimum wages set at $12.50 a week in 1937 • Relief set at maximum of $19. a month • 36% Ratio • Rose to 70% in 1990-91 • Relentlessly fell for the next 20 years • Now back to 36% • Forced choice between $7,000 or $20,000 Poverty at the crossroads

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40. The Welfare Diet: Then and Now • Authored by Hon. Dave Tsubouchi in 1995 • Re-shopped at Supercentre in February 2010 and January 2011 • Food inflation much higher than CPI • Bad food rising faster than good food Poverty at the crossroads

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42. Gold: last 12 months Poverty at the crossroads

43. Sugar: last 6 months Poverty at the crossroads

44. Corn: last 6 months Poverty at the crossroads

45. Cotton: last 6 months Poverty at the crossroads

46. Soybeans: last 12 months Poverty at the crossroads

47. Copper: last 12 months Poverty at the crossroads

48. Coffee: Last 12 months Poverty at the crossroads

49. Cattle: last 12 months Poverty at the crossroads

50. Orange Juice: last 12 months Poverty at the crossroads