Mark Hankins Energy for Sustainable Development AFRICA Nairobi Kenya

1. Approaches to Rural Electrification in East Africa:Donors, Projects, Rural Energy Agencies & the Private Sector Berkeley Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab November 2005 Mark Hankins Energy for Sustainable Development AFRICA Nairobi Kenya

2. Design of WB GEF PV Program • Design of Rural Energy Agency • PV Commercialization • Support to Energy for Rural Transformation • PV training & infrastructure • NGO projects Sudan • PV Commercialization • Decentralized energy supply • NGO projects Somalia Ethiopia • PV training, infrastructure, finance & study • Mini-grid & wind development • Various private sector in rural energy • NGO projects • PV system design Uganda Kenya • National PV Project • NGO Projects • Design of Rural Energy Agency • PV Training & Infrastructure • Pilots for REA Tanzania East Africa and the Horn of Africa 20 years work experience

3. Rural Energy Access is Extremely Limited Rural Electrification is less than 5% in most sub-Sahara African Countries!!!!!

4. Poverty Backdrop

5. Rural Electricity in East Africa

6. How Are We Doing? Connections/Year Pretty Bad!!!! RE is going backwards

7. Why RE is so Slow in Africa • 25% financing 75% • Low capacities to pay • Dispersed rural populations • Lack of power in grid • Lack of investment • Corruption, bureaucracy, politics, war • Approaches do not match need categories • Lack of focus (too much “flavor of the month”) • Not enough good people in RE???

8. 3 Basic Strategies for RE • Grid Extension • Micro-Mini Isolated Grid • Hydro • Thermal • Co-Gen • Wind hybrid • Dispersed or Isolated Systems • BBS & PV • Gen-Set • Wind, micro-hydro, hybrids, etc

9. Electrification Strategies & Demand Categories

10. Non-Electric Energy Needs and Sources Applications • Cooking • Heating • Air conditioning • Pumping • Milling • Refrigeration • Etc Important Sources • Wood, residues • Charcoal - major environmental issues • LPG - modern cooking fuel which could help overcome cooking fuel shortages • Kerosene • Biogas • Etc.

11. US$/kWh

12. Commercial Non-Project Electrification • Less than 3% have access to grid electricity but spending power is there • Cell phone market illustrates market potential • $100’s of millions spent on electricity by rural people (not including kerosene) • Small generators • Lead acid batteries (Uganda) • $10 per month per battery • $1-3 per charge • ~200-300,000 HH use • Charging industry makes $27M/year • Dry cells (Uganda) • $6 per mo per rural HH • 94% of HH use • ~460 million dry cells/annum @$230M (not possible)

13. Late 1990’s: Paradigm Switch?? • Post liberalisation of power sector • A new paradigm • Modern energy as driver for economic development • Modern energy supports key social services • Access to modern energy by maximum number of people • Multi-technology approach • Private sector led • Replaces “old paradigm” • Grid extension • “A bulb in each house”

14. Energy for Rural Transformation • Use modern energy sources to promote productive end-uses such as agro-business, SMEs, and commercial ventures in and near rural areas • Increase access to modern energy services in key rural service areas such as health, education, water, communication, etc. • Rural Energy Agency/Fund plays facilitating role • stimulates and co-finance viable private sector investments in modern rural energy technologies. • “technology neutral”. All types of energy projects will be considered • RE is private sector-led

15. Energy for Rural Transformation Uganda • A number of flagship projects for rural electrification • These focus on different technologies and dissemination strategies • Preparation of Kakira Sugar Factory IPP • West Nile Hydro Power Project (World Bank) • Bushenyi & Rukungiri • Kasiizi Hospital Power Project • PV market development • Success? Not yet.