Malthusian Pessimism

1. MalthusianPessimism • In his 1798 theory, English economist and demographer Reverend Thomas Malthus predicted that, because population growth is exponential while agricultural productivity growth follows a linear trend, food demand would inevitably eventually outstrip supply capacity—thereby causing mass starvation and/or the need for population control measures to equilibrate supply and demand. • This fatalistic vision of population growth was taken up by Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 The Population Bomb as well as by Lester Brown. • The argument was popularised in the 1970s by bestseller Limits to Growth (Meadows et al.)

2. The Counter-Evidence • According to Lomborg, the Malthusian premise regarding the respective patterns of population and productivity growth does not hold. • Empirical evidence shows that population growth is rarely exponential while agricultural production rarely grows linearly. • According to the UN, food production is 23% greater today than in 1961 (WRI 1996-97).

3. More Food than Ever • In general, Lomborg argues, food per capita is higher than ever despite significant population growth. • Calorie intake per person has increased in both the developed and the developing world, and the proportion of world population that is starving has fallen. • And despite increasing demand fuelled by population growth, food prices have fallen dramatically. This implies that foodstuffs have become less scarce.

4. The Green Revolution • The unprecedented advances in agricultural productivity are largely due to the advent of a number of new technologies, collectively known as the “Green Revolution.” • High yield crop varieties, pioneered by Nobel Peace Prize winner Norman Borlaug, germinate earlier in the year, grow faster, and are more resistant to disease and drought. • Irrigation and water control improve soil fertility and hence yields. • Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides improves plant growth and prevents losses resulting from disease and insects.

5. The Green Revolution – consequences • ≥30% rise in maximum yields (accounting for 20-50% of productivity growth) • Additional income to farmers estimated at $4 billion per annum • In 1997, 18% of total agricultural land was irrigated, up from 10.5% in 1961 • Since 1950, the use of fertilizer has increased nine-fold.

6. Regional Distribution • Improvements in the supply of food per capita have not been equitably distributed among nations. • Sub-Saharan Africa has remained largely stagnant, with the rate of increase of the population outstripping growth between 1980-1995. Lomborg sees this as the result of poor policies. • In contrast, the economic reforms instituted in China in the late 1970s have paved the way for increased agricultural production per capita and rapidly growing rural incomes.