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Our View of the World Economy and What it Means for your Investments

Our View of the World Economy and What it Means for your Investments. Wiesbaden – 06 May 2014. United States. Growth Benefits from the End of the Fiscal Drag . Confirmation Expected on the Investment Front. * estimates Source: LHS: CBO, JP Morgan, 09/12/2013

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Our View of the World Economy and What it Means for your Investments

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  1. Our View of the World Economyand WhatitMeans for yourInvestments Wiesbaden – 06 May 2014

  2. United States

  3. Growth Benefits from the End of the Fiscal Drag Confirmation Expected on the Investment Front * estimates Source: LHS: CBO, JP Morgan, 09/12/2013 RHS: Carmignac Gestion, CEIC, 31/12/2013 Fiscal drag effect 2013-2014 (as % of GDP) Non-residential investment

  4. Long Term Rates Reached All Time Lows in 2013 2014: Rising Long-term Yields, as Fed Initiates “Tapering” Source: Bloomberg, 09/04/2014 US 10 years government bond yield • Tapering: • "In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labour market conditions, the committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases”. • Ben Bernanke, 18th December 2013

  5. The Nature of the Interest Rate Risk in 2014 Long-terminterest rates with and without QE Long-terminterest rate WithQE Without QE Economicrecovery Time Economicrecovery t1 t0 t2 T1: time when recovery starts with QE T2: time when recovery starts without QE Source: Nomura, 22/10/2013

  6. Interest Rate Strategy The FED’sDilemna Active Management of ModifiedDuration willbe Key Source: Carmignac Gestion, Bloomberg, 28/04/2014 • Normalisation of US monetary policy • For the third time in as many meetings, the FOMC voted to continue its QE tapering • However, it has been noted that: • inflation remains below the Fed’s long-term target • the FOMC will no longer rely on unemployment reaching 6.5% to raise its key interest rates Modified duration as at 15/11/13: -0.98

  7. EquityStrategy A CompetitiveAdvantageLinked to the EnergyRevolution Source: Left: IEA Data, 2012 Right: Stifel, November2013 * estimates Global Natural Gas Prices (USD/MMBTU) US Ethylene production capacity (000 t/y) • Stock in the portfolio: • LyondellBasell,a leading world polyolefins producer X5 Japan NGL EU Natural Gas US Natural Gas

  8. EquityStrategy Shale Oil & Gas: DrivinghigherEnergyrelated Capital Expenditures Source: INGAA Foundation, Inc *Capital expenditures reported in 2011 Study were converted from 2010$ to 2012$ using a 4% inflation factor. Billions of real dollars Comparison between 2011 and 2014 studies on capital expenditures Our stocks to play this theme Oil Services Schlumberger Core Laboratories Construction and Engineering Jacobs Engineering Group Fluor Corporation

  9. Europe

  10. Structural Reforms are Positive and Necessary Source: J.D.Power and Associates, McGraw Hill Financial., LMC Automotive, 31/12/2013 Figures for 2014 and 2015 are forecasts, 2013 figures are forecasts for France Light Vehicle Production France vs Spain Spain Car Production France Car Production

  11. Is the Eurozone Facing a Deflationary Threat? Germany is Not Escaping from Deflationary Pressures Source: Left: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Les cahiers verts de l’économie, April 2014 Right: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 Privatesectorlending, YoY German inflation Household lending (consumer and other) Residential mortgages Non-financial business lending

  12. Fixed Income: ECB’s Targeted Responseto Recent Crises Source: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 Liquidity crisis Solvency Crisis Inflation? Draghi “put” LTRO Is the ECB ready to act? Itraxx Senior Financials Eurozone inflation Spanish 10-year yield

  13. FixedIncome Strategy Fixed Income: Portugal Should also Benefit from European Convergence Fundamentals are improving in terms of growth and budget forecasts Source: LHS: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 RHS: Japanese Ministry of Finance, March 2014 *medium and long-dated bonds Allocation to European peripheral government bonds: 24.5% of which Portugal: 3.2% • Change in 10-year government bond yields Weekly Japanese investment abroad* Portugal Spain Italy

  14. FixedIncome Strategy Credit: a Point in the Credit Cycle Beneficial to Europe Source: RBS Credit Strategy, Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 European Credit: 19% BUBBLE CONTRACTION • EuropeanEconomyis in a Phase of Stabilisation: • ModerateGrowth • Low Inflation • Deleveraging • Low Default Rates RELEVERAGING STABILISATION

  15. FixedIncome Strategy Corporate Bonds: We Favor the Financial Sector Regulatory Ecosystem Reducing Vulnerability of European Financial System Source: Carmignac Gestion. Average yields are provided for Carmignac Patrimoine as of 31/03/2014. Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk Vulnerability of Financial System Coco O-SIFI SSM CCCB CCB MDA Leverage ratio Solvency2 AT1 Bailinable buffer LCR NSFR Basel 3 CRD4 SRM G-SIFI SPE DGS AQR CCAR SRF OLA RRM MPE PONV PRA Liikanen Volker Dodd Frank Living wills Bailin Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk Price of Risk AverageYield Vulnerability of Financial System with Tighter Regulation Subordinate 4.92% Contingent Convertibles 6.83% Size of shock

  16. Emerging Countries

  17. Emerging Countries: Adjustments have been Made to AddressDeficits Source: EmergingAdvisors Group, EM MonthlyChartbook, March 2014 IndiaTrade Balance and CurrentAccount % GDP 12m cum % GDP sa 3mma CurrentAccount Trade Balance (right scale)

  18. Valuations and Sentiment are Supportive of a Rebound in EM Equities Source: Left: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Les cahiers verts de l’économie, April 2014; Right: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey, 15/04/2014 EmergingMarkets P/E vs. DevelopedMarkets P/E* Global InvestorPositioning relative to history (z-score) Underowned Overowned US EM expensive Eurozone UK Japan EM cheap EM • *MSCI EM and MSCI World

  19. ChineseDemographicDividendisComing to an End Automation is expected to rise significantly in China Source: IFR, Gavekal, 2013 China: Convergence of robot cost and wages USD 2 years Foxconn salary = Hourly wage x 24 hours x # of days in 2 years Avg. Industrial robot unit cost 2 yearsFoxconnsalary

  20. EquityStrategy Fanuc: A Long TermGrowth Story 50% of Sales in Asia ex-Japan Source: IFR, Gavekal, 2013 Estimatednumber of multipurposeindustrial robots per 10000 manufacturingemployees General industries Automotives Fanuc, a leader in automation and industrial robots • Lowpenetration of industrial robots in Emerging countries is a stronggrowthopportunity • A competitionlimited by high barriers to entry • Marginsprotected by a high value addedproducts China Malaysia Taiwan France S. Korea Spain US Germany Japan

  21. EquityStrategy ChineseMarkets Continue to offerGreat Opportunities Source: CICC Equity Strategy Research, March 2014 Performance 2013: MSCI AC World index industry groups vs. internet & gaming Our Chinese Stocks • Macau Casinos • WynnMacau, Sands China • Internet • Baidu • Infant Milk • China MengniuDairy

  22. Allocation Strategy

  23. FixedIncome Strategy Carmignac Patrimoine: Our Modified Duration Breakdown shows our Rate Convergence Conviction Source: Carmignac Gestion, 14/04/2014 Core strategies/Long-term convictions Tactical strategies/Management of modified duration Focus on spreads Reducing interest rate risk Safe haven sov. -493bp Credit169bp Peripheral sov. 283bp Finance117bp Italy138bp United States -370bp Energy14bp Spain 79bp Japan -49bp Consumer Sector12bp Portugal 35bp Germany -49bp Ireland 22bp UK -26bp Total modified duration:-23bp

  24. EquityStrategy Carmignac Investissement: Portfolio Construction JAPAN US GROWTH US Dollar Exposure EMERGING MARKETS GLOBAL LEADERS EUROPEAN STABILISATION Active Management of Interest Rate Risk Cash

  25. Stratégie actions EquityAllocation: Summary and Prospects Equity Strategy Source: CarmignacGestion, 31/03/2014

  26. Disclaimer Nur für Informationszwecke / Ausschließlich für professionelle Investoren Die in dieser Präsentation enthaltenen Daten und Informationen werden ausschließlich für Informationszwecke zur Verfügung gestellt. Sie stellen weder ein Angebot zum Kauf, eine Aufforderung zum Verkauf oder eine Anlageberatung dar, noch sind sie vertraglich bindend. Dieses Dokument kann inhaltlich verändert werden, ohne dass über diese Änderungen vorab informiert werden muß. Die in der Vergangenheit erzielte Wertentwicklung ist keine Garantie für künftige Ergebnisse. Die aufgeführtenWertentwicklungenverstehensichnachAbzugvonVerwaltungsgebühren. Der Wert einer Anlage kann bei Marktschwankungen steigen oder fallen, und Anleger können unter Umständen ihren ursprünglich investierten Betrag verlieren. Die in dieser Präsentation zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen sind nicht für Personen oder Einrichtungen in einem Land oder Rechtsraum gedacht, in denen ihre Verbreitung oder Nutzung den geltenden Gesetzen oder Vorschriften widersprechen oder di Verwaltungsgesellschaft dazu verpflichten würden, den Zulassungsvorschriften in diesen Rechtsräumen zu entsprechen. Risikoskala von 1 (geringstes Risiko) bis 7 (höchstes Risiko), wobei 1 nicht eine risikolose Investition bedeutet. Anlagen in die Fonds von di Verwaltungsgesellschaft sind auf Grundlage der aktuellen rechtlichen Unterlagen (Verkaufsprospekt, die wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen und Jahresberichte) vorzunehmen.   Der Prospekt sowie das KIID sind am Geschäftssitz von Carmignac Deutschland GmbH, Junghofstraße 18 - 26, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, erhältlich. Diese Dokumente sind auch auf der Internetseite www.carmignac.de abrufbar. Diese sind kostenlos und in Papierform in Deutschland bei (FCP) CarmignacDeutschand GmbH (HRB 92565), Junghofstraße 18-24, 60311 Frankfurt am Main und (SICAV) Marcard, Stein & Co. AG, Ballindamm 36, 20095 Hamburg und in Österreich bei der Ersten Bank der Österreichischen Sparkassen AG, OE 01980533/ Produktmanagement Wertpapiere, Petersplatz 7, 1010 Wien, erhältlich. Urheberrecht: Die aufdieserPräsentationveröffentlichtenInformationensinddasausschließlicheEigentumvonihrenBesitzernalsaufjederSeiteaufgeführt Nicht vertragliches Dokument, 02/05/2014 Carmignac Gestion – Vermögensverwaltungsgesellschaft (AMF-Zulassungsnummer GP 97-08 vom 13/03/1997) Aktiengesellschaft mit einem Grundkapital von 15.000.000 Euro - Handelsregister Paris B 349 501 676 24 Place Vendôme – 75001 Paris – Tel : +33 1 42 86 53 35 Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg Tochtergesellschaft der CarmignacGestion OGAW-Verwaltungsgesellschaft (CSSF-Zulassungsnummer vom 10/06/2013) Aktiengesellschaft mit einem Grundkapital von 3.000.000 Euro - Handelsregister Luxemburg B67549 City Link - 7, rue de la Chapelle L-1325 Luxembourg - Tel (+352) 46 70 60 1

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