STRATFOR RESEARCH

1. Introduction to STRATFOR RESEARCH

2. Communication • Always be available during your scheduled hours and DON’T BE AWOL • Keep Research Dept in the loop • Quality assurance for STRATFOR • Access to resources and guidance for you • Avoid huge wastes of time • Reply-All is the rule, not the exception

3. Time Management • Always start with the assumption that the information exists • Where can the information be found and how long will it take to find it? • Spend enough time that the research is solid, but not so much that a missed deadline destroys its value • Set goals and try to keep them

4. Research as Analytic Support • Speed • Focus is key • Efficiency – we’ll get more into that later • Knowing where to go (hint: probably not Google) • Quality • Accuracy is absolutely critical • Completion is our goal in everything • Neat, organized, accessible

5. How Does Research Get Done Two ways Do it yourself Get someone to tell you

6. Don’t be lazy Do it yourself

7. The Importance of Primary Sources • DON’T • Outsource your brain • Trust “common knowledge” • Trust the first report you come across • DO • Start stupid, build up • Be able to trust your research • Become an authority

8. Primary Sources Overview • Alphabet soup organizations • State Dept background notes, LOC Country Studies, OpenCRS • Government websites • Ministries for everything! Trade, finance, defense, foreign affairs, etc. • Central banks • Reference library • Janes, Military Balance, Energy Atlas, China Statistical Yearbook, magazines, etc

9. Economic • IMF. IFS, WEO, SDDS, Article IV consultations, papers. • UN. Commodities, demographics, external debt, developmental. • EIA, IEA, OPEC, BP, Petroleum Economist, Oil and Gas Journal, FAS, FAO, USGS • Eurostat, ITC TradeMap, bilaterals.org

10. Military and CT • DOD/Dot-Mils, Press releases, PAOs • UNHCR, ReliefWeb, Logistics Cluster • Global Security, Military Periscope, SIPRI, INSS, Jane’s, IISS Balance • RAND, Brookings, UnderstandingWar.org, etc • NCTC WITS, UMD GTD, SATP • Facebook, blogs (surprisingly)

11. Finding Primary Sources • Research sources XLS • Networked bookmarks • Google - I lied, it’s awesome • Search modifiers, URL analysis • Database search • Wikipedia • Be careful – Only good as a jumping off point • Check the links at the bottom • Trade orgs and market reports – money at stake and boots on the ground • Blogs

12. Media Reports asSecondary Sources • Media reports almost always reference the primary source • Sometimes information can only be found in media reports – we’ll take it (reluctantly)

13. Digging up Media Reports • Best media reports of all are at stratfor.com – use it. • Your own email • Quick Find vs. Message Search • OS collections and translations • Mailman archives • Google News/Archives/Newspapers • Modifiers work here too • BBC Monitoring

14. Radix non grata • CIA World Factbook • Woefully outdated, frequently inaccurate • Most junk on Wikipedia • Opinion • Analysis • Outright lunacy • Indexmundi and Nationmaster • Just aggregating from sources you should know anyway (and CIA Factbook) • Whatever random garbage your Google search turned up

15. Doing It Well • Read the fine print • Make sure units match • Consider the broader context • Independently verify

16. Make a friend Get someoneto tell you

17. Cold Calls • Can yield information very quickly if targeted correctly • Generate contacts, submit for archival • Names • Titles • How to identify yourself • Global intelligence company (mysterious) • Research firm (business focused) • Online publishing (innocuous) • Don’t take ‘no’ for an answer – get a referral

18. Emails • Just do it (a lot) • Don’t pester, but persist

19. Who To Contact • Reporters • Other academics and researchers • Information desks at government agencies and libraries • Public affairs officers • The appropriate attaché at the embassy • Local business, chamber of commerce, port authority, police department, statistical agency, etc, etc.

20. Finding Contact Info • Refer back to section on Google • Academic papers are usually the mother lode of contact info • Check the executive summaries and back covers

21. Phone or Email? • Phone is often better than email • Harder to ignore • Inject some humanity into the interaction and even lay on a little charm • Email may be more appropriate • Time zone differences • Easier to relay complex data • Get calls in early, then hit your primary resources while you wait for call back

22. Submitting research

23. Formatting Rules • Learn them once, benefit for the rest of your time here • Senior staff insists on quality • Don’t send a Word doc to do an Excel spreadsheet’s job • Your final product must be accessible • Put yourself in your “client’s” shoes

24. Present It Backwards • If you’re asked a question, what is expected? Put it at the top. • Then include a summary that outlines how you got there • Get into the nuts and bolts last

25. CITE CITECITECITECITE • Much of this research will be your legacy at STRATFOR. Please don’t make me throw it away. • Fully document both your sources and methods • Be as specific as possible

26. DATE DATEDATEDATEDATE • I’m tired of typing these slides • Just date everything, okay? • That means individual components, sources, entire documents, everything!

27. Alternative Platforms • Google Earth • Timeline Maker • Slideshow (PPT/PDF) • Mixed • Word/Excel • Earth/Text/Graphics • Whatever makes the information most accessible

28. epilogue

29. Real World vs. Academia • Different time management strategies • Academia: Two minutes early same as two days early • Real World: Real gains for early submissions. (Caveat: still has to be right) • “Just get it turned in” is not an option • Citations must be rigorously traced back to their original source

30. The Internet • This is our world. STRATFOR wouldn’t exist in its current form without that great networked ocean of knowledge out there. • Get to know it. Be a geek. • Explore creative new ways to obtain knowledge • Invent interesting ways to interpret it • Be on the cutting edge