State of the North Carolina Workforce

1. State of the North Carolina Workforce An Assessment of the State’s Labor Force Demand and Supply 2007 – 2017

2. Today • Background for the report • Share data from the report • Gain your input on policy focus areas and implications • How should our state respond to the findings in terms of future policy development and state-level action?

3. Study Process • Led by the Commission’s Policy Research and Assessment Committee (PRAC) • Commissioned quantitative research of the state’s workforce and economic conditions • Corporation for a Skilled Workforce • Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness • Utilized multiple data sources • Validated data across multiple stakeholders prior to writing report

4. The Intent of the Study • Analyze labor market demand and supply trends and forecasts 2007-2017 • Determine the appropriate geographic units for study • Assess education and workforce system gaps in meeting labor market demand • Identify most critical policy challenges and opportunities

5. Study Outcomes • 2007-17 labor market demand and supply projections for NC and sub-regions • Key issues likely to arise IF current trends continue and no major economic shifts occur • Provides facts to help guide policy choices

6. John P. Metcalf - Sr. Partner Community Strategic Planning CSW is a national private non-profit consulting firm based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, founded in 1991 (www.skilledwork.org) Mission: Re-imagine everything about work and learning in the global economy to have a competitive workforce advantage. Dr. Kenneth Poole – President, Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness CREC is a national non-profit affiliated with George Mason University and ACCRA—the Council for Community & Economic Research based in Arlington, Virginia, established in 2000 (www.creconline.org) Mission: Promote knowledge-based regional economic development efforts The Project Authors

7. Key Trends Found In The Report 8 Key Trends

8. Key Trends • Traditional manufacturing continues to shed jobs as part of an on-going economic transition • Traditional “middle jobs” — those that paid a family-sustaining wage and required minimal formal education or training — are disappearing as part of this transition • New job creation is concentrating in certain fast-growing metropolitan areas • Many areas of North Carolina are not prospering from the economic transformation

9. Key Trends • Future prosperity depends on achieving higher educational attainment levels for all citizens • Impending baby-boom retirements will exacerbate an emerging skills gap among experienced, skilled workers • High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but not all, of this skills gap • Low-skill in-migrants present both opportunities and challenges in meeting the state’s workforce needs

10. The Data Facts and Figures That Support The Trends

12. The Golden Crescent Provides The State’s Economic Engine

14. The State’s Traditional Manufacturing Industries Will Likely Shed More Workers These 4 industries currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs

15. NC’s Industry Employment Trends Projected Employment* 2007 = 5,152,000 2017 = 5,851,000 *Includes Pvt, Farm, Govt & Proprietors

16. Disadvantaged Regions Are Growing Slower Than The Rest Of The State Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005

17. State Earnings Trail The Nation Even In Prosperous Areas

18. “Success Favors The Prepared Mind” NTHS NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required Education (Est. 2007 and 2017)

19. Educational Attainment In the US and North Carolina (est. 2007) Total Population

20. ‘New Middle’ Jobs ‘Disappearing’ TraditionalMiddleJobs A Divide In the Economy and the Labor Force Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017 NC Net New Jobs Total = 690K

21. In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities

22. In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities Hispanic Population Density, 1990

23. In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities Hispanic Population Density, 2000

24. North Carolina Has A Talent Shortage *Annual estimate calculated from data provided by the US Census Bureau, UNC/NCCCS and Regional Dynamics annual employment projections 2007 to 2017 Regional Dynamics

25. Questions and Discussion State of the North Carolina Workforce

26. Input As you listened to the report’s trends, reviewed the policy focus areas and related policy implications and questions: • What is your reaction to the policy implications and questions of the six focus areas? • Within each focus area, are there specific policy issues you think we should address or emphasize? • Have we missed anything you consider a significant policy issue? • Your thoughts and opinions!!!

27. Next Steps • PRAC forms four (4) policy workgroups to develop policy recommendations for the Commission’s and Governor’s consideration based on report and forum feedback • Coordination of the policy workgroups • Gain stakeholder input • Refine policy questions • Develop potential policy solutions • Delivery recommendations to the Commission by July

28. Next Steps The Policy Workgroups’ Focus • Valuing Education and Life-long learning • improving educational attainment • Changing Industry • Middle Jobs Loss (grow sectors and sector strategies) • Geographic Disparities • Vast Despair of the Coastal and Mountain Regions Compared to the Piedmont (overcoming the two North Carolinas) • Rural, small town, and urban • Changing Workforce Demographics • baby boomer retirements and in-migration of low-skilled workers) PowerPoint on www.nccommerce.com

29. Later Questions and Comments • Paul Combs • Chair of the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee • combsjp@bellsouth.net • Heidi Stieber • Staff for the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee • hstieber@nccommerce.com • 919.715.6658 • John Metcalf • Corporation for a Skilled Workforce (CSW) • jmetcalf@skilledwork.org • 704-814-8999 • Ken Poole • Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness (CREC) • kpoole@c2er.org • 703-522-4980, ext. 16

30. Thank You