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University Monash University degree Master of Arts

Australian Association of Graduate Employers Trends in Graduate Talent: How Demographic Change is Shaping the Skills Market in Australia Bernard Salt 14 November 2012. University Monash University degree Master of Arts First job Research Officer Geelong Regional Commission 1983-1985.

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University Monash University degree Master of Arts

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  1. Australian Association of Graduate EmployersTrends in Graduate Talent: How Demographic Change is Shaping the Skills Market in AustraliaBernard Salt14 November 2012

  2. UniversityMonash University degreeMaster of Arts First jobResearch Officer Geelong Regional Commission1983-1985

  3. The Australia’s newest tribes seeking middle-class prosperity through education Country of Birth 2011 United Kingdom 1,101,100 New Zealand 483,400 China 319,000 India 295,400 Italy 185,400 Vietnam 185,000 Philippines 171,200 South Africa 145,700 Malaysia 116,200 Germany 108,000 2006 % change 1,038,200 6% 389,500 24% 206,600 54% 147,100 101% 199,100 -7% 159,800 16% 120,500 42% 104,100 40% 92,300 26% 106,500 1% • Top 10 ethnicities in Australia at the 2011 and 2006 Censuses Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  4. New acronyms for the new tribes of Australia • PUMCINS …. • NETTELs … • KIPPERS … • LOMBARDs …

  5. Australia’s metropolitan community has a patchwork of beliefs and skills Bachelors Degree or higher* Belief * Proportion volunteers * • Acton (Can) 41% • Parkville (Mel) 37% • Lane Cove (Syd) 36% • Longueville (Syd) 35% • Birdwood (Adl) 34% • Stirling (Adl) 34% • Aldgate (Adl) 34% • Aranda (Can) 34% • Campbellfield (Mel) 6% • Australian average 19% • Campbellfield (Mel) 97% • Horsley Park (Syd) 97% • Mount Lewis (Syd) 96% • Mount Vernon (Syd) 96% • Greenacre (Syd) 95% • Old Guildford (Syd) 95% • West Hoxton (Syd) 95% • Bossley Park (Syd) 95% • Clifton Hill (Mel) 47% • Australian average 75% • Barton (Can) 55% • Kingston (Can) 53% • St Leonards (Syd) 52% • Turner (Can) 50% • East Melbourne (Mel) 50% • Carlton North (Mel) 48% • Waverton (Syd) 48% • Wollstonecraft (Syd) 47% • Rockbank (Mel) 3% • Australian average 15% • Per cent comparison of persons by selected social characteristics in metropolitan Australia at the 2011 Census * Excludes suburbs with total population less than 1,000 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  6. The outlook for the 15-24 cohort is modest … graduate employers may have to compete for best product 1950 2000 2050 100,000 90,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Population growth 20,000 - - 20,000 - 40,000 - 60,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • Net growth in population (15-24) over 100 years in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  7. Changes to the lifecycle are creating new behaviours and options for today’s 20-Somethings Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 2012 82 Child Teen Old Adult 1972 71 1932 63 Child Adult Old 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 • Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  8. The requirement for skills has focussed on carers and practical trades … technological changes impact other jobs Winners Losers Registered Nurses 34,351 Aged and Disabled Carers 30,802 General Clerks 30,090 Child Carers 22,668 Contract, Program & Proj. Admin 20,756 Electricians 20,471 Accounting Clerks 18,529 Drillers, Miners & Shot Firers 17,686 Truck Drivers 16,068 Office Managers 15,956 Secretaries -30,234 Corporate Services Managers -14,439 Livestock Farmers -8,691 Product Assemblers -7,782 Mixed Crop & Livestock Farmers -6,625 Shelf Fillers -6,441 Crop Farm Workers -5,685 Metal Engineering Process Workers -4,484 Keyboard Operators -4,013 Crop Farmers -3,916 • Net growth and loss in occupations in Australia over 5 years to 2011 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  9. Health, accounting, building, legal and education sectors drive graduate demand 2011 change 2006-2011 Registered Nurses 206,916 34,351 20% Accountants 138,298 14,925 12% Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians 49,236 14,635 42% Solicitors 48,183 11,375 31% Primary School Teachers 137,416 11,360 9% Civil Engineering Professionals 32,069 10,791 51% University Lecturer and Tutors 44,587 8,994 25% Occupational & Environmental Health Professionals 18,924 8,084 75% Generalist Medical Practitioners 43,430 7,978 23% Secondary School Teachers 125,028 6,358 5% • Net change in selected university degree-related jobs in Australia over 5 years to 2011 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  10. We have changed the skill base of the Australian worker in a generation … • Number of persons by age and education qualification in Australia at the 2011 Census Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  11. … and we have changed the gender mix with women now more likely than men to have a degree 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 Total Males with Tertiary Degree Total Females with Tertiary Degree • Number of males and females with a tertiary degree at the 2011 Census Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  12. There has been a shift in the Australian economy … away from manufacturing and towards healthcare 4 years August 2008 – up 1.3m (9.6m – 10.8m) 4 years August 2012 – up 561k (10.8m – 11.4m) Healthcare 300,000 Professionals 250,000 Finance, Wholesale, Real Estate, Transport, Retail 200,000 Mining 150,000 100,000 50,000 - - 50,000 Manufacturing, Construction, Agriculture - 100,000 - 150,000 Retail Other Mining Wholesale Construction Accom & Food Manufacturing Admin & Support Arts & Recreation Info Media/Telecoms Education &Training Public Admin & Safety Financial & Insurance Elect, Gas, Water, Waste Healthcare/Social Assist. Rental/Hiring/Real Estate Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing Transport, Postal, W’House Professional/Scientific/Tech. 2004-2008 2008-2012 • Net change in total jobs in Australia over two successive four-year periods, August 2004 – August 2012 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  13. Ageing of the population will create demand for healthcare professionals as well as a new breed of grumpy retiree 1950 2000 2050 150,000 140,000 130,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 Population growth 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • Net growth in population (65+) over 100 years in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

  14. Contact Bernard Salt KPMG Australia +61 3 9288 5047 bsalt@kpmg.com.au www.bernardsalt.com.au twitter.com/bernardsalt linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt facebook.com/BernardSaltDemographer

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