FNR Foresight Exercise Exploratory Workshop

1. FNR Foresight ExerciseExploratory Workshop CM International 19th May 2006

2. Outline • Key findings to date • Research landscape overview • Main international trends analysis • Assessment of priorities • Introduction to the parallel sessions • Strategy options • Attractiveness - feasibility matrix

3. Key findings to date

4. Significant uplift in public R&D funds since 2000 Public Funds to Public R&D, 1990-2005, million euro Source: R. Kerger, Luxembourg's Research Landscape, Paper presented at the CREST meeting. Mondorf-les- Bains, 23 May2005

5. A complex system of funding sources and actors

6. A comprehensive range of public research supports

7. Top issues raised in the online questionnaire Strategy development: • “Luxembourg needs to commit to a national R&D policy: public and private stakeholders have to be integrated and committed to the same overall targets; national cooperation at all levels is important for the overall success of R&D activities.” Criteria for selection of R&D fields: • “I think Luxembourg should not try to win any 'Nobel Prizes' by doing research in novel and 'hip' areas, but should focus on essential research which will help the country's welfare and economy in the short and long run.” Research system parameters: • “The focus is in my feeling too much on applied research. Applied research of tomorrow was always and will always be the fundamental research of today. So fundamental research has to be made to assure a future applied research.”

8. Top issues…continued Research culture: • “Encourage exposure to international research community by facilitating international collaborative projects. Encourage (national) visibility of the research activities in the different projects (FNR has a role as an information dissemination platform).” Funding process: • “Continuously monitor scientific quality and productivity. Best way is via peer review (including site visits) by outside experts. Regularly demand accountability from researchers and administrators to ensure that public funds are well spent. Support what works, abolish what doesn’t.” Human resource development: • “It is important to create a critical mass of experienced researchers and infrastructure in Luxembourg to attract scientists from abroad.”

9. Rationale for priorities • Most countries are prioritising research domains in their public research strategies • Growing use of foresight as a mechanism to achieve this prioritisation • Strong and often competing evidence needs to be assessed when undertaking prioritisation You are here today to consider this evidence and contribute towards prioritising public research funding in Luxembourg

10. What type of research priority?

11. Trends at the international level : 54 emerging domains Competition level • Identified from: • Foresight projects conducted by the European Commission • Research priorities identified from 12 comparator countries • FNR 2005 call for proposals • Senior researcher interviews in Luxembourg & online questionnaire survey 11 11 7 15 10

12. How is a domain assessed? • Attractiveness: • Societal need • Economic need • Emerging trend • Sustainable development need • Feasibility: • Scientific base • Economic base • Regional partners • Competition intensity: • Extent to which the research domain is being prioritised by other countries. • Note, this particular point requires careful consideration, as it is complicated by the fact that for Luxembourg to reap benefit of prioritising a research domain its scientists will also need to be part of a wider community of scientists where knowledge exchange is important.

13. 6 2 3 1 3 7 0 3 2 2 3 8 5 2 7 Trends at the international level : 54 emerging domains Competition level

14. A fiche example

15. A focus on the domain analysis table

16. Attractiveness – Feasibility Matrix : ‘Clustering’ VERY HIGH feasibility HIGH MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH Attractiveness

17. 4 Types of Domains Type 1 • Very high attractiveness and high feasibility (3) Type 2 • High attractiveness and high feasibility / Very high attractiveness and medium feasibility (30) Type 3 • High attractiveness and medium feasibility / medium attractiveness and high feasibility (20) Type 4 • Medium attractiveness and medium feasibility (1)

18. Top 10 Research priorities identified Source: online questionnaire results

19. 4 common domains amongst top domains selected by public & private sector Source: online questionnaire results Note: coloured circles refer to competition level from other countries – e.g. red = high, amber = medium, and green = low

20. Variable competition level for the 54 domains Competition level Typology Source: online questionnaire results

21. Key emerging issues • The Luxembourg research landscape has evolved at a rapid rate • Stakeholders agree that now is the time to introduce a greater strategic focus to public research funding • Prioritisation of research domains is needed but is difficult • There is a need to match views from a diverse range of stakeholders (public and private sectors) • There are many research domain ‘niches’ where competition appears to be lower – although this issue needs to be treated carefully when prioritising • The results suggest some emerging domains with strong assessments • They also indicate some pessimism regarding feasibility of many domains – more than half the domains are of ‘medium feasibility’

22. Strategy option 1: Build critical mass to develop the business base • Move away from specialisation in the context of the knowledge economy • Develop research activities that have a clear potential for strengthening existing and developing new economic clusters in the medium to long term • Focused strategy with priority research domains selected because of their business development potential • Economic attractiveness is a key ‘assessment’ issue and feasible domains are obviously preferable • Highly attractive and currently less feasible domains will also be considered as future success may well depend on developing entirely new specialisms in Luxembourg in both the scientific and economic domain. • 80% of the budget will be focused on the priorities, 20% of the budget for other innovative research projects outside the domain priorities

23. Strategy option 2: Scientific excellence strategy • Develop high level research activities • Which have the greatest potential to firmly establish Luxembourg on the international science map and ensure the country partakes in ground-breaking new developments • With the capacity to transform this knowledge into innovation • Focused strategy with priority domains selected because of their scientific potential • Domains assessed as highly attractive with high scientific potential should be selected - also taking into account what the expected long-term economic impact of these domains is likely to be. • Two or three domains only will be selected. Complementary domains that would have a positive impact on the development of these few priorities will also be selected • The major share of the budget (80%) will be focused on the priorities with the remaining (20%) devoted to other scientifically excellent research projects outside the domain priorities

24. Strategy option 3: Differentiation strategy • Focus resources on domains with relatively low competition • Luxembourg’s relative resources are too limited to compete in any significant way in most domains. • The research strategy will build on Luxembourg’s particular strengths and competencies in current, potential and emerging sectors • Domains with both scientific and economic potential are selected • Domains assessed as having good attractiveness and feasibility assessment will be preferred • In particular, feasible or strategically important domains are preferable - such as domains that have either a scientific base, economic base or regional partners, or have been identified in national policy statements as priorities • All budget should be devoted to these priorities

25. Strategy option 4: Sustain diversity in Luxembourg • Diversity is an opportunity to spread risk and avoid choosing a focused approach too soon. • Managing a larger portfolio of research domains will provide the opportunity to counterbalance potential failures in some domains with success stories in others. Over time this will guide the way to the development of a few clusters with a positive socio-economic impact • The key issue is to select priorities among domains with both scientific and economic potential • Research teams are invited to select one or two domain priorities and even specific research axes in order to nevertheless concentrate their efforts and achieve critical mass • Budget will need to be spread, and should support international collaboration and in particular to use the Grande Region potential

26. Strategy option 5: Research for sustainability • Focus research activities on the development of methods, technologies, and practices that are required to shift behaviours and consumption patterns in a sustainable direction • A mix of domains with combined business potential as well as an environmental and social impact will be selected • Higher levels of convergence (the NBIC convergence: Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno) offer the greatest potential to substantially advance human capabilities and societal functions towards sustainable development • FNR’s role is to use programme development to strike a balance between research aiming at scientific excellence in NBIC interfaces and the continued development of technological capacity and knowledge resources of Luxembourg research teams for the benefit of the business community

27. Thank you