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Romanian National Foresight Exercise. Prof. Dr. Eng. Adrian Curaj National University Research Council Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding a drian.curaj @uefiscsu.ro.
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Romanian National Foresight Exercise Prof. Dr. Eng. Adrian Curaj National University Research Council Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding adrian.curaj@uefiscsu.ro
Disscutions Points • Romanian “RDI Strategy 2007-2013” Project ; • First National Foresight Exercise in Romania; • Conclusions
Romanian “RDI Strategy 2007-2013” Project Objectives • Assessment of the National RDI System ; • Defining the strategic and specific objectives for the Romanian RDI system for the period 2007-2013; • Develop the National RDI Strategy; • Develop the NPRDI 2 (PNCDI 2) Time frame: June 2005-October 2006
FOREIGN EXPERTS GROUP Steering Committee • Project Management (WP1) • Director • Deputy Director • WP managers? • Rapporteurs • Experts: • - financial; • - communic. • ICT • project assistant HLEG Chair Person WP2 HLEG Chair Person WP3 HLEG Chair Person WP5 HLEG Chair Person WP4 Project Scientific Committee Rapporteur Rapporteur Rapporteur Rapporteur 11-16 11-16 11-16 11-16 HLEG2 HLEG3 HLEG4 HLEG5 EXPERT PANELS
Our Foresight methodology should be inclusive from the early stages of the foresight project We have to do all our best to involve “Authority” (both formal and academic) should be involved at every stage of the process We have to be Focused on the inclusiveness of foresight (rather than scientific depth) Provide shared strategic visions that are to be used in the development of the National RDI Strategy Defining the strategic and specific objectives for the Romanian RDI system for the period 2007-2013;Principles of Foresight Design
THE FOUR PILLARS OF ROMANIAN S&T FORESICHT RESULTS Foresight into the R&D System with the time horizon 2020, particularized for 2013 Suggestions on the fields of S&T on which Romanian R&D System should focus. • PROBLEMS Fragmentation within the system / lack of cohesion Need for planning the effective use of structural funds Low level of science – society dialogue ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC NEEDS present - medium term future ANALYSIS OF THE R&D SYSTEM present - medium term future MOST PROMISING SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH present STRATEGIC VISIONS present - medium term future Romanian Foresight Architecture
Analysis of socio-economic needs Panel 1: Information Society Technologies Panel 2: Competitiveness through innovation Panel 3: Quality of life Panel 4: Social and cultural dynamics Panel 5: Sustainable development Analysis of theRDI system Panel 6: Institutional building of the National RDI System in the knowledge society Most promising scientific research Panel 7: Science, frontier science, knowledge development Foresight Structure
METHODS Desk research Workshops Interviews with stakeholders PARTICIPATION Core experts Invited stakeholders RESULTS A primary set of possible priorities for the RDI system (50 – 80) for each panel Concept of an open workshop conference, with 3 parallel streams for each panel – the panel assumes the role of a scientific committee Institutional Dialogue
METHODS Negotiation workshops conference PARTICIPATION Core experts Level 1 experts Science S & T management Business and industry Public administration Civil society RESULTS A filtered set of possible priorities for the RDI system (up to 15) for each panel Preparation of the statements for the survey Determining Possible Trends
METHODS Open survey- Delphi …phase 1 Multi-criteria Analysis PARTICIPATION Core experts Level 1 experts Level 2 experts RESULTS Set of possible priorities, evaluated against a set of criteria that result from the mission/vision of the RDI system Impact Analysis
METHODS Expert panels analysis PARTICIPATION Core experts RESULTS Panel Report, including a set of possible priorities (10) for the RDI system, for each panel Determining Key Parameters
METHODS Genius forecasting Scenario workshop PARTICIPATION Panel members Independent experts RESULTS Scenarios for the Romanian RDI System in the next 13 years, founded on selected sets of possible priorities. Alternative Scenarios
Poles of excellence Large set of research themes with high potential in the production of knowledge Set of research themes filtered during negotiation workshops Cross-Impact Analysis Key research themes, Dominant research themes, Autonomous research themes,Dependent research themes Potential for scintific research
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS Information Society Technologies Information Society Technologies Competitiveness through Innovation Competitiveness through Innovation Quality of Life Quality of Life Social and Cultural Dynamics Social and Cultural Dynamics Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Institutional building of the R&D System Institutional building of the R&D System STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES, SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES 2007-2013 Vision 2020 Potential for scintific research Potential for scintific research HIGH LEVEL DECISION MAKING PROGRAM MODEL UNDERLYING THEORY PROGRAMMES – INSTRUMENTS FOR THE ACHIEVEMENT OF STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
Conclusions or …questions(!?) How we make Romanian Academy involved as core project partner? How we manage to have a high rate of responds to our survey? How we managed the risk associated with the lack of practical experience an the lack of real possibility to involve international experts? How we make policy makers involved? …….
