Vulnerability to Climate Change

1. Vulnerability to Climate Change Habiba Gitay World Bank Institute The World Bank www.worldbank.org/climatechange www.worldbank.org/wbi

2. IPCC – defines vulnerability as • The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

3. Climate change has many characteristics and affects countries in many ways

4. Impacts - already occurring – low income countries most affected Middle income countries Low income countries

5. Proportion of people affected by climate related disasters 5

6. People affected by floods and droughts in Africa 6

7. Major development sectors affected/vulnerable • Water – its availability • Agriculture – options to reduce adverse impacts • Urban - Direct – e.g. heat-waves, flooding - Indirect – e.g. rural to urban migration • Infrastructure – Damage and decreased lifespan • Coastal – Storm surge, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion • Natural systems – Damage, failure to regenerate (e.g. after frequent fires)

8. Agriculture: Impacts Are Likely to Worsen Over Time – additional challenges and vulneabilities Percentage change in agricultural yields between now and 2050 Source: WDR 2010

9. Health impacts by 2040 By 2030 Increased mortality due to malnutrition, infectious and respiratory diseases, vector and water borne diseases, heat related diseases in many parts of the world 9

10. Scarcity of natural resources and climate Change could lead to migration and conflict and there are hotspots WBG 2007

11. Innovation in Carbon Finance: Biocarbon Fund Costa Rica: Coopeagri Forestry Project The project reimburses farmers for environmental services of biodiversity protection as a result of reforestation. Payments will be complemented with the income from the carbon sales. At least 600 farmers in 38 rural communities are currently associated with Coopeagri, a cooperative of coffee, sugar cane farmers who have agreed to introduce forestry production activities in their farms. The project is expected to sequester around 0.56Mt C02e by 2017.

12. Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Purpose To help highly vulnerable countries pilot and demonstrate ways to integrate climate risk and resilience into core development planning while complementing other ongoing activities. Participating countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Tanzania, Yemen, Zambia, Regional Programs: Caribbean (Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines) and South Pacific (Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga) • Example: Cambodia • Technical support for mainstreaming climate resilience • Piloting vulnerability assessments and investments on an ecosystem basis • Strengthening data collection on climate risks • Promoting participation of the private sector and civil society First operational program under the Strategic Climate Fund: $967million in grants and IDA-like resources

13. Working together to reduce poverty and vulnerability Different countries affected differently now and in future Climate change is an added stress - pushes them over the edge Marginalised groups - often face multiple stresses – are most vulnerable Reducing poverty will have multiple benefits including decreasing vulnerability to climate change Your parliamentary functions – representative, legislative, oversight – and your leadership role in and out of parliament are critical MPs can share knowledge amongst themsleves and develop guidance to fast track the much needed policies and strategies 13

14. Integrate climate change as part and parcel of sustainable development “Climate change policies cannot be the frosting on the cake of development; they must be baked into the recipe of growth and social development” Robert Zoelick, President, The World Bank 14