Potential production of energy wood in varying thinning and climate scenarios for Finland

1. Faculty of Forest Sciences Potential production of energy wood in varying thinning and climate scenarios for Finland Ashraful Alam Management of Forest Ecosystem Faculty of Forest Sciences University of Joensuu, Finland EMA: Climate change conference Budapest, 2009

2. Contents • Background • Objective • Methodology • Key findings

3. Background 1/2 • The substitution of biomass for fossil fuels in energy consumption is a measure to mitigate global climate change. • To meet climate agreement, recently EU set an ambitious target, where Finland has to increase its share of renewable energy source in total energy consumption by 38%. • Finland is one of the leading countries in EU in using wood-based energy (20% of total consump.). • In 2006, 21 mil. m3 wood was used to generate energy, of which only 15% was from forest residues at final cut.

4. Background 2/2 • Climate change, defined by increase in temperature, precipitation and CO2, has been assumed to increase the production potential of boreal forests in Finland. • Management: expected climate change may bring a new dimension to current mgt. as it utilises the opportunity provided by the surrounding environment.

5. Research objective Based on the above context… The aim of this study was to assess the effect of management and climate on energy wood production in Finland

6. Management regimes Regeneration Carbon dioxide concentration at the atmosphere Potential growth Different tree Temperature and precipitation Monthly statistics Measurements of climate parameters Climate scenarios Mortality Decomposition Litter, humus and dead trees Temperature conditions Moisture conditions Light conditions Multipliers Degree-days, dry-days, availability of light, water, and nitrogen Tree population Species composition, age and size distribution, growth rate of different species Sima model (Methodology 1/5)

7. Materials (Methodology 2/5) • Finnish 9th NFI data (2003) • Total 2816 permanent sample plots for the whole of Finland (south: 1855; north: 961) • FMI - Climatic data • Current climate (1971-2000) • Changing climate in 3 periods 2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099

8. Thinning threshold Just before thinning Remaining basal area Just after thinning Mgt. scenarios (Methodology 3/5) Principles of thinning in Finland

9. Mgt. scenarios (Methodology 4/5)

10. 2010-2039 2010-2039 % % 2010-2039 2010-2039 2040-2069 2040-2069 % % 2040-2069 2040-2069 2070-2099 2070-2099 % % 2070-2099 2070-2099 Output under current climate in three periods Output under changing climate in three periods Output under current thinning in three periods Output under varying thinnings in three periods Climate scenarios Thinning regimes Analysis (Methodology 5/5) Climate effect Thinning effect

11. Calculations • Growth (m3/ha/yr): stem wood production • Energy wood (Mg/ha/yr): • Energy wood thinning (EWT): small-sized trees • Final cut: tops, branches, stumps & largest roots

12. Findings (1/4)

13. Findings (2/4) Effect of climate

14. Effect of thinning (3/4)

15. Effect of thinning (4/4)

16. Questions or Comments….?