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Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company

2 nd ARF Seminar on Energy Security. Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company. Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEO Total Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd. Severe imbalances in world wealth and energy. Russia and FSU 4 600 $ / capita 3,6 tep / capita. Europe 34 600 $ / capita

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Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company

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  1. 2nd ARF Seminar on Energy Security Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEOTotal Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd 16th April 2008

  2. Severe imbalances in world wealth and energy Russia and FSU 4 600 $ / capita 3,6 tep / capita Europe 34 600 $ / capita 3,8 tep / capita China 2 000 $ / capita 1,5 tep / capita Japan & Pacific OECD 30 400 $ / capita 4,5 tep / capita Middle East 4 900 $ / capita 2,7 tep / capita North America* 43 700 $ / capita 7,9 tep / capita India 800 $ / capita 0,6 tep / capita Latin America* 5 400 $ / capita 1,1 tep / capita Africa 1 100 $ / capita 0,7 tep / capita Year 2006 Average GDP : 7 500 $ / capita Average annual consumption of energy : 1,8 tep / capita Source: IEA Balances, Total projection. IMF GDP current $ . * North America : US + Canada, Latin America includes Mexico 16th April 2008

  3. Population GDP (at exchange rates) Average growth/year 2005-2030 Trillions (2000$) Billions MBoe/d 1.2% 350 2.8% 80 10 1% 300 1.8% 8 60 250 6 200 4.9% 1.7% 40 150 1.2% 4 100 20 2.2% 2 0.6% 50 0.2% 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 OECD Non-OECD Population and economy transforming the 2030 map Energy demand Source : UN, world population prospects, 2006. IEA. Total 16th April 2008

  4. 80% of the energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030 World energy demand* Million boe/day Renewables (including hydro & biomass) + 1,2% / year Nuclear + 0.8% / year 2015-2030 328 + 1.8% / year 2005-2015 Coal + 1,8% / year 15 % 49 Gas 6 % 244 19 13 % 31 Oil 27 % 87 6 % 15 152 25 % 62 13 % 20 22 % 79 % 73 3 % 4 25 % 21 % 37 52 17 % 26 30 % 100 35 % 84 43 % 65 1980 2005 2030 * Primary energy Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total 16th April 2008

  5. A supply forecast barely reaching 100 Mb/d… Oil demand and supply forecast(*) Total demand forecast Mb/d GTL, CTL 100 Natural gas liquids 80 Crude oil including heavy oil 60 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (*): excluding biofuels Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total 16th April 2008

  6. …as a result of OPEC influence and the complexity of new projects Tight market fueling a high price environment Breakeven oil price of new projects in $/bbl Ultra deep water Arctic Enhanced Recovery 80 Deep water 60 Other Conventional Heavy oil 40 Oil need from 2005 to 2030 20 OPEC Middle East 1000 Oil resourcesin billion barrels 2000 3000 Sources: IEA, Total 16th April 2008

  7. Power generation Industry Transport Residential and services 42 Other 20 IEA Reference scenario 10% 12% 13% 38 15 65% 34 10 30 IEA Alternative policy scenario 5 26 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 2005 2030 Greenhouse gas emissions: the major issue for sustainable growth CO2 emissions by sector CO2 emissions : Potential savings Increased Nuclear Increased Renewables GtonCO2 GtonCO2 Improved efficiency in the Power sector Demand efficiency measures 16th April 2008

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