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Update on the Drought of 2011

Update on the Drought of 2011 . TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA. Rainfall Since October 1st. Rainfall Since October 1st. Rainfall Since Oct. 1 Midland 0.16 Marfa 0.25 Fort Stockton 0.08 El Paso 0.45 Brownfield 0.77.

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Update on the Drought of 2011

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  1. Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA

  2. Rainfall Since October 1st

  3. Rainfall Since October 1st Rainfall Since Oct. 1 Midland 0.16 Marfa 0.25 Fort Stockton 0.08 El Paso 0.45 Brownfield 0.77

  4. Rainfall Departure From NormalSince Oct.1

  5. Rainfall So Far in June

  6. While Many Areas Were in Flood, Texas Couldn’t Buy any Rain

  7. One of the Worst Droughts on Record • 3rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and 1956. • October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record. • Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.

  8. Soil Moisture Anomaly

  9. An Unusually Warm Start to Spring/Early Summer

  10. Latest Drought Monitor

  11. Latest Drought Monitor

  12. Comparison with Worst of 2009 Drought September 1, 2009

  13. La Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral. June 13th

  14. Trending Back to La Niña? El Nino La Nina

  15. NWS July through September Outlook Temperature Precipitation

  16. Drought Outlook through September

  17. Dry Wet

  18. Composite PrecipitationJune through August

  19. Composite PrecipitationSeptember through October

  20. NAEFS Forecast through July 1st Probability for Greater than 1/2 inch of Rain

  21. Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

  22. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

  23. National Hurricane Center Outlook

  24. Colorado State ‘11 Hurricane Outlook “We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. William Gray and Phil Klatzback, Colorado State University, June , 1st Update 16 Named Storms (normal is 9.6) 9 Hurricanes (normal is 5.9) 5 Major Hurricanes (normal is 2.3)

  25. Years with Similar Conditions 1971, 2008

  26. 1971

  27. 2008

  28. 2011 Hurricane Season Names

  29. Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA bob.rose@lcra.org 512-473-3350

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