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Chapter 8 Making Judgments and Decisions P189

Chapter 8 Making Judgments and Decisions P189. Intuitive Predictions Judgment Aids Utility Analysis. JUDGMENTS OF VALIDITY. Evaluating a Measure Without statistical validation – judge job relatedness based on sequential questions: Is trait related to performance (link KSA -> task)?

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Chapter 8 Making Judgments and Decisions P189

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  1. Chapter 8 Making Judgments and Decisions P189 • Intuitive Predictions • Judgment Aids • Utility Analysis chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  2. JUDGMENTS OF VALIDITY • Evaluating a Measure • Without statistical validation – judge job relatedness based on sequential questions: • Is trait related to performance (link KSA -> task)? • is the construct a valid measure of the KSA? • Give an example • 12 questions to ask (p190) • Be prepared to answer the questions for a measure you may use chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  3. MANAGERIAL USE OF ASSESSMENTS • What do managers want? • Fill vacancy asap • Want the best people • Want it cheap • What do managers know about testing? • Little; no training in psychometrics or test theory • Nothing about construct validity • Misinformed on test validity • Often distrust testing • Some overestimate the validity of tests (especially when over-sold by test vendors (e.g. DISC, MBTI) chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  4. JUDGMENTS AS PREDICTIONS AND DECISIONS • What is “common sense”, “intuition?” • Give some examples. • A thought question - • Statistical v. judgmental Prediction • What are the pitfalls with each? • Which is generally superior? (Meehl, ‘54) • Prediction and Decision Without Statistics • Usually the most important jobs have few people • Why is this a problem for using statistics? • How do you deal with this? • Combining Information for Overall Assessment • Average assessments/use common scale chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

  5. JUDGMENT AIDS • Clarifying Judgments to Be Made • JA is essential! –it makes management focus on what it will take to do the job • Procedural Planning • Make a detailed protocol and document it • Why is this a good thing to do? • Developing Assessment Scales • Use the same scale or different scales? • A structured interview? • Expectancy Charts • What is a theoretical expectancy chart? • How is it used? • Give an example • Expectancy Graphs • Use selection ratio and possible cut scores – • to illustrate selection costs to show validity impact (for managers to understand) • Utility Analysis • Brogden (‘49), Cronbach & Gleser (‘57) • Show relative pay off (average dollar pay off) • Caveat (GIGO) • Concluding Comments • Judgments must be rational and include all infromation available chapter 8 Makeing Judgments and Decisions

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