1 / 21

WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

Akm Saiful Islam. WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management. Lecture-4: Module- 3 Regional Climate Change Modeling. Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). December, 2009. Module-3. Prediction of climate change

bedros
Download Presentation

WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Lecture-4: Module- 3 Regional Climate Change Modeling Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) December, 2009

  2. Module-3 • Prediction of climate change • Global and regional climate change predictions • Dynamic and static downscaling for impact study. • Uncertainty of predictions

  3. Regional Climate Change Modeling

  4. Regional details of Climate Change

  5. Regional Climate modeling An RCM is a tool to add small-scale detailed information of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. RCMs are full climate models and as such are physically based and represent most or all of the processes, interactions and feedbacks between the climate system components that are represented in GCMs. They take coarse resolution information from a GCM and then develop temporally and spatially fine-scale information consistent with this using their higher resolution representation of the climate system. The typical resolution of an RCM is about 50 km in the horizontal and GCMs are typically 500~300 km

  6. RCM can simulate cyclones and hurricanes

  7. Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET. Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3). LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100. Predictions for every hour. Needs more than 100 GB free space.

  8. PRECIS • PRECIS, developed by Hadley Center's, UK, is a regional climate modeling system. • A regional climate model (RCM) is a dynamic downscaling tool that adds fine scale (high resolution) information to the large-scale projections of a global general circulation model (GCM). • This makes for a more accurate representation of many surface features, such as complex mountain topographies and coastlines. RCMs are full climate models, and as such are physically based.

  9. Domain used in PRECIS experiment

  10. Topography of Experiment Domain Simulation Domain = 88 x 88 Resolution = 0.44 degree Zoom over Bangladesh

  11. Predicted Change of Mean Temperature (0C) using A1B Baseline = 2000 2090 2050

  12. Predicting Maximum Temperature using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

  13. Predicting Minimum Temperature using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

  14. Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d) using A1B Scenarios Baseline = 2000 2050 2090

  15. Predicting Rainfall using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

  16. Change of mean climatic variables of Bangladesh using A1B Scenarios Rainfall (mm/d) Temperate (0C)

  17. Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/d)

  18. Monthly Average Temperature (0C)

  19. Summary Analysis of the historic data (1948-2007) shows that daily maximum and minimum temperature has been increased with a rate of 0.63 0C and 1.37 0C per 100 years respectively. PRECIS simulation for Bangladesh using A1B climate change scenarios showed that mean temperature will be increased at a constant rate 40C per 100 year from the base line year 2000. On the other hand, mean rainfall will be increased by 4mm/d in 2050 and then decreased by 2.5mm/d in 2100 from base line year 2000.

  20. Recommendations In future, Climate change predictions will be generated in more finer spatial scale(~25km). PRECIS model will be simulated with other Boundary condition data such as ECHAM5 using A1B scenarios. Results will be compared with other regional climate models such as RegCM3 etc.

More Related