Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation

1. Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Abigail Baca The World Bank Group GFDRR Labs

2. How to Manage Disaster Risk in the Pacific? Not If, But When… • The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) : • Ensure risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation. • Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. • Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. • Reduce underlying risk factors. • Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.

3. “When?”… But also What and How?? Risk Assessment Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Visualization of hazard and risk Infrastructure design Early Warning Systems Climate Change Adaptation Land Use/ Territorial planning Tools to Assist Decision Making Analysis of financial exposure Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment

4. Disaster Impact Analysis Risk Modeling Vulnerability (of house to wind) Risk (i.e probable damage/loss) Hazard (i.e. Cyclone wind) Exposure (i.e. houses, crops) - Scenario or Stochastic -

5. Scenario Modeling San Juan del Sur Nicaragua Hazard Vulnerability Risk: Physical Damage, Loss $ Exposure

6. Stochastic Hazard Modeling Stochastic Event Set = All physically possible events More that historical record, estimate future events Frequency : How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100) Severity : How strong is the event? Hurricane Cat 5 What does the event look like? Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc

7. GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION Tropical Cyclone INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL HURRICANE RAINFALL PYROCLASTIC FLOWS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS LAVA FLOWS STORM SURGE STRONG WINDS Multiple Hazards

8. Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA

9. Hazards + Exposure + Vulnerability + Risk Visualization of hazard and risk Territorial planning Infrastructure design Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment Applications Analysis of financial exposure Climate Change

10. “When?”… But also what and how?? Risk Assessment Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Visualization of hazard and risk Infrastructure design Early Warning Systems Climate Change Adaptation Land Use/ Territorial planning Tools to Assist Decision Making Analysis of financial exposure Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment

11. Land Use Planning and Zoning Identification of main hazards Landslideshazardmap Flood hazard map Seismichazardmap

12. Cost Benefit Analysis Retrofitting of Critical Infrastructure Bogota Disaster Vulnerability Reduction programSchools Retrofitted 2004-2008 : 201 School and Administration Buildings Assessed

13. GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL HURRICANE RAINFALL PYROCLASTIC FLOWS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS LAVA FLOWS STORM SURGE STRONG WINDS Climate Change Impact on Disasters

14. Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model Model A Model B

15. Financial Analysis of Risk • How much to disasters really cost?? • Government reserves for Emergency Response • Risk Financing/ Risk Transfer

16. Hazards + Exposure + Vulnerability + Risk Visualization of hazard and risk Territorial planning Infrastructure design Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment Applications Analysis of financial exposure Climate Change

17. Not IF but WHEN…. So What and How? Abigail Baca abaca@worldbank.org