Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing Countries

1. Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing Countries John Furlow US Agency for International Development Glen Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit Breckenridge 2012

2. What Is USAID?

3. USAID at a glance • An independent federal agency under the general policy guidance of the US Secretary of State • Operating in 100 countries with over 75 field offices • $ billions invested annually in: • Water and sanitation • Agriculture • Democracy & governance • Economic growth & trade • Environment • Education & training  • Health • Humanitarian assistance

4. USAID’s Climate Change Program Overall Goal: Assist countries as they develop in ways that reduce emissions while building resilience to climate change impacts Mitigation: Clean Energy: 23 countries, 11 Regions/Bureaus Reducing net GHG emissions by spurring the deployment of clean energy technologies. Priority areas: energy efficiency, low-carbon energy, clean transport, and energy sector reforms. Sustainable Landscapes: 14 Countries, 5 Regions/Bureaus Reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector (e.g., tropical forest destruction and degradation) and augmenting sequestration of carbon in landscapes, including building capacity to measure, report, and verify emissions reductions. Adaptation: 19 Countries, 12 Regions/Bureaus Building capacity in vulnerable countries and communities to prepare for, reduce, or cope with negative impacts of climate change; Designing resilience into development assistance.

5. Adaptation portfolio 2011 Asia: Latin America & Carib: Africa: 23 countries $139 million in total

6. Adapting to Climate Change Impacts in Developing Countries

7. Challenges to Adaptation in Developing Countries • Underlying development challenges • Education • Governance • Health • Infrastructure • Poor historical records • Poor current weather data • GCM uncertainty • Poorly adapted to current conditions • Numerous pressing needs

8. What Is Adaptation? • IPCC: adaptation is “Adjustment in systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects. . .” • Process of examining and understanding vulnerabilities • Responding in some way to reduce vulnerability, build resilience

9. Why Adapt to Climate Change? Ethiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP, GDP • Developing country economies concentrated in climate sensitive sectors • ~70% of developing country populations derive income from agriculture

10. Weather, Climate, and Livelihoods

12. Alerts for East Africa Major crisis continues; response inadequate 06/07/2011 Conditions worsen in Eastern Horn 05/06/2011 Forecasts poor, crisis likely to worsen 03/15/2011 Poor Oct-Dec rainfall likely in East Africa 11/02/2010 Food security expected to deteriorate further 12/30/2009 Poor start of kiremt season in Ethiopia 08/13/2009 Forecast poor rains to deepen food insecurity 10/23/2008 High and rising food prices continue 08/12/2008 Food aid pipeline faces serious shortfalls 06/23/2008 Forecasts suggest increased food insecurity 03/31/2008

13. Making the Most of Adaptation Investment Development Priority High Climate Risk High Opportunity for Success

14. Climate Stress in the Development Context Economic drivers / Social development objectives: Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing Inputs or essential conditions: Natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems, labor, safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness Stressors (climate, non-climate): Changes in rainfall, temperature, SLR, corruption, pollution Interventions: Information, capacity building, public awareness, freshwater management, coastal/marine management Resilience improved Program design

15. Understanding climate vulnerability • Vulnerability: determined by exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity • Exposure: Is an asset out in the elements? • Flooding, drought, erosion, sedimentation • Agriculture is exposed, highly dependent on weather/climate • Sensitivity: Does exposure matter? • Are crops suitable to a range of temperatures and precipitation profiles? • Adaptive Capacity: Can you respond? • Ag sensitivity can be reduced with irrigation, drainage, crop selection • Crop and economic diversification can reduce damages • Insurance spreads risk 15

16. Objective: Health, productivity, food Inputs: Infrastructure, water, ecosystems, management, information, climate, policy Vulnerability factors Potential impacts Stresses • Exposure • What • Infrastruct. • Populations • Ecosystms • Where • Coastal zone • Estuaries • Sensitivity • Quality of infrastruct. • Type of water source • Housing • Health status • Adaptive capacity • EWS • Governance • Multiple sources • Skilled decision-makers • Redundant systems • Non Climate • Poor infrastructure, maintenance • Lack of regulation • Pollution • Climate • Increasing temps • Rainfall variability • Damaged infrastructure • Lost productivity • Illness • Food insecurity Response options • Seasonal weather forecasts • Guidance and awareness • Restore watersheds • Redundant infrastructure • Zoning, flexible land use • Increase water storage

17. Climate Service Partnership

18. Climate Service Partnership • Growing consensus that providing climate information can help decision making • International Conference on Climate Services: • NOAA, UK Met, German Climate Service, WMO, Global Framework for Climate Services, World Bank, USAID • Principles: • Tailored to decision needs • Focus on key development sectors • Open access to data • USAID/West Africa: Climate Adaptation Support Service for regional development

19. Value Chain of Climate Information • Identify User Needs • Translate Information for users • Deliver Information • Apply Information for decision making • Robust Decisions

20. IRI – IFRC Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.IFRC/.Forecasts/

21. SERVIR: Tools to Assist Development

22. SERVIR: Disaster Response Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop

23. Climate Mapper Tool

24. Climate Mapper Continued

25. Rural Radio: RANET

26. Applying Weather and Climate information: Index Insurance

27. Four main “buckets” for risk management Risk reduction Risk retention Risk transfer Post-disaster assistance Frequent, less severe events Rare, very severe events

28. Probability Losses Risk reduction Retained Insurance Aid/Relief Irrigation Water use efficiency Drought resistant varieties Training on climate change Access to forecasts Reforestation Community monitoring systems Grain storage, seed banks

29. Managing Climate Risks: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods

30. Glacier Lake Hazards in Nepal • Tourism: 50% of Nepal’s GDP • Region accounts for 5% of arrivals Some Statistics on our expedition: • 35 scientists, development practitioners, journalists • ~25 porters and guides • ~12 vertical miles walked • ~75 linear miles walked • 18 days on trail

31. Thank You jfurlow@usaid.gov http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate