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Kyiv, 13 November 2013

MYKHAILO GONCHAR NOMOS / Strategy XXI Ukraine. Kyiv, 13 November 2013. Gazprom achievements: crash of Nabucco + resistance to TransCaspian Pipeline + acceleration of South Stream (first line). NORD STREAM. YAMAL-EUROPE. MAINSTREAM.UA. Hub Baumgarten. SOUTH STREAM. TANAP.

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Kyiv, 13 November 2013

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  1. MYKHAILO GONCHAR NOMOS / Strategy XXI Ukraine Kyiv, 13 November 2013

  2. Gazprom achievements: crash of Nabucco + resistance to TransCaspian Pipeline + acceleration of South Stream (first line) NORD STREAM YAMAL-EUROPE MAINSTREAM.UA Hub Baumgarten SOUTH STREAM TANAP nomos.com.ua | geostrategy.org.ua

  3. System challenges for Russian gasocracy In 2012, USA overcame the Russian Federation in the level of gas production. Norway nearlycame up to the RF in the gas export volumes to the EU. ScolkovoEnergy Centre, 26.04.2012: «…As a result of theabrupt increase in the shale gas production (seventeen times much in comparison with 2000 year) the USA not only became independentfrom gas import, but became ready in the years coming to begin LNG export to Europe and the Asian-Pacific region. It means that in the long run Russia will meat new rival in its export markets. Minister of Energy of the RF A.Novak,04.02.2013: «…Market withdrawal of the biggest hydrocarbon commodity importer – USA significantly changes the map of traditional export routes…As far as the tanker fleet and LNG regasification facilities beсome larger, the gas market will transform gradually in the consolidated global market…In the oil market as well as in the natural gas market we expect the substantial increase of the competition…» IA «Regnum», 10.11.2013: “… Adriatic Gas Corridor pushed forward by Brussels is the next Anti-Russian project ”

  4. AmericanLNG-challenge for Russia • SKOLKOVO Energy Centre: “…as a result of the sharp increase in shale gas production (seventeen times compared to 2000) the USA have not only achieved independence from gas imports, but also will be ready in next five years to start exporting LNG to Europe and Asian- Pacific region. This means that in the long term, Russia will face the emergence on its gas export markets of a new competitor. Application of new technologies for extracting oil from tar sands in Canada has led to a significant increase in reserves and production in this country, and this trend will continue in the future.” (April 26, 2012)

  5. Azeri deception for Central and Eastern Europe: TAP instead of Nabucco West + AGRI as an LNG mirage for Romania and Ukraine +absence of the real support to White Stream

  6. E&P projects for natural gas in Ukraine and Poland (onshore, offshore and unconventional gas) E&P projects for natural gas in Ukraine and Poland (onshore, offshore and unconventional gas)

  7. Ukraine and Poland arethe future Methane Belt of Europe PL UA

  8. Geomethane Axis of Europe Table 1. Matrix of scenarios on the total gas production volumes from conventional and unconventional sources in Poland and Ukraine by 2030 Each country to some extent has the possibility to minimize import and to obtain the self-sufficient status or to become a gas exporter. nomos.com.ua | geostrategy.org.ua

  9. North – South Gas Corridor: • Gas Corridors North – South: • 1.Easternor Visegrad Corridor • (to connect “Polskie LNG” • on the Baltic Sea and “LNG Adria” on the Adriatic Sea) • 1.Western(to connect • Russian streams via • OPAL – Gazelle – TGL) nomos.com.ua | geostrategy.org.ua

  10. Consequence of Russian bypass activity:Future gas supplies to the V4, Lithuania and and Ukraine are under the risk of interruptions. According to order dated November 2012 Kaliningrad interconnector has to be built Yamal Europe - II According to order dated April 2013 Possible interruptions

  11. Scheme of the Energy Transparency Regime for Gas (ETR-G)based on the physical on-line data interchange as an Early Warning Mechanism 1. WORKING PRESSURE 2. OUTCOMING VOLUMES (DAYLY) 3. INCOMING VOLUMES (DAYLY) Producer (RU) on-line verification Consumer (EU) Transmitters EaP countries (UA, BY, MD)

  12. Directions of gas market adaptation to the EU requirements on the basis of the EU Gas Directives and the membership in the Energy Community • Improvement of free access to the pipelines and UGS capacities. • Transition to the tariff system “Entry-Exit”. • Transition to the pipelines capacities auctions. • Transition to the energy indexes of natural gas accounting. • Modernization of Ukrainian GTS • Development of the Central European Gas Hub in the partnership with the European companies . nomos.com.ua | geostrategy.org.ua

  13. Quo vadis?

  14. Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” NOMOS www.nomos.com.ua geostrategy.org.ua mi.gor17@gmail.com

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