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Energy Transitions: An Overview

Energy Transitions: An Overview. Cutler J. Cleveland Dept. of Geography and Environment Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer Range Future Boston University.

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Energy Transitions: An Overview

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  1. Energy Transitions: An Overview Cutler J. Cleveland Dept. of Geography and Environment Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer Range Future Boston University Prometheus, you are glad that you have outwitted me and stolen fire...but I will give men as the price for fire an evil thing in which they may all be glad of heart while they embrace their own destruction. -- Zeus to Prometheus, Hesiod, Works and Days 55

  2. Energy Transition A particularly significant set of changes to the patterns of energy use in a society Changes in sources (wood to coal) Changes in convertors (lamps and candles to light bulb) Changes in society (rural to urban; affluence) Changes in environment (deforestation to climate change)

  3. U.S. Energy Transitions 100 75 coal wood Percent of total energy use oil 50 gas 25 animal feed electricity 0 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

  4. Outline • 1. Energy transitions are social transitions. • a. Energy and economic well-being go hand-in-hand. • b. These transitions take a long time 3. Energy is a fundamental driver of environmental change and human health at local, regional, and global scales. 4. The transition from oil and carbon is unlike all previous transitions. 5. We must engineer and manage the next energy transition.

  5. Energy & Economic Growth

  6. Energy & Economic Growth

  7. U.S. Electricity Generation by Source

  8. Energy and Climate © 2003 Cutler J. Cleveland

  9. The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) 300 200 Trillion kwh per year 100 +5 +1 +2 +3 -1 +4 -5 -4 -3 0 -2 Mayan Steam culture Stonehenge Built Parthenon Engine completed Pyramids Iron in constructed Black Middle Death East Inquisition Magellan's Circumnavigation

  10. Conditions for the Next Transition 1. The environmental frontier is closed. 2. Scale of transition is large. • Quality of alternatives is generally lower. 4. Energy markets drive decisions. 5. Practical and ethical imperative to reduce poverty.

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