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Explore the complexity of statistical and scenario uncertainty in urban planning, acknowledging four levels of uncertainty from recognised to total ignorance. Learn about the SOC approach, criticality, climate change effects, and the three-points strategy for spatial and urban planning. Discover innovative ideas for robust cities, interaction with various professionals, data collection and model usage, and the importance of incorporating tacit knowledge and narratives into planning processes.
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Statistical uncertainty Scenario Uncertainty Recognised Ignorance Total Ignorance Four levels of uncertainty
Prudence Rationality Sensitivity “Giving meaning to ‘things’ you cannot describe”
Self-organised Criticality (SOC) Return period T in years
Effect Climate Change Standard Return period T in years
Three points approach Spatial planning and urban planning (thinking beyond the norms) Technical (sewer) facilities Day to day values Return period T in years
Three points approach • Innovative ideas for robust cities • Interaction with town planners, architects, designers, etc. • Integration on meso level • Interaction between water and sewer specialists • Collecting data (micro level) • Using models (macro level) • Taking tacit knowledge into account • Collecting stories on micro level • Bringing stories in into the meso level integration • Giving new stories (narratives) back to the people (residents, politicians, etc.) Return period T in years
