Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities

1. Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities Ulka Kelkar Associate Fellow TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India

2. Who is more vulnerable? ECHAM4 HadCM2 Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s CGCM1

3. Presentation context and outline • Identifying vulnerability • Who and what are vulnerable to the projected impacts? How vulnerable? • Understanding vulnerability • What factors cause, amplify or dampen vulnerability? • Addressing vulnerability • How can appropriate adaptation efforts / policies be developed?

4. Identifying vulnerability:Observation

5. Retreat of the Gangotri glacier Source: Earth Observatory, NASA

6. Invasion of chir into oak in Uttarkashi

7. Identifying vulnerability:Modelling

8. Impact of climate change on water and agriculture: case study in Uttaranchal

11. Identifying vulnerability:Indices and mapping

13. Vulnerability index for Indian coastline • share of land area affected by 1-m SLR in total area of district (based on JNU 1993) • share of population affected in total population of district • district level index of relative development (CMIE 2000) • district level index of relative infrastructure development (CMIE 2000)

14. Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity Biophysical vulnerability • Soil degradation and cover • Groundwater availability Social vulnerability • Agricultural workers and labourers • Literacy • Gender discrimination • Child mortality and fertility Technological vulnerability • Irrigation • Infrastructure

15. Observed (1961-90) HadRM2 (2 x CO2) Climate sensitivity index

16. Identifying vulnerability:‘Double exposure’

17. Adaptive capacity • Biophysical vulnerability • Soil degradation and cover • Groundwater availability • Social vulnerability • Agricultural workers and labourers • Literacy • Gender discrimination • Child mortality and fertility • Technological vulnerability • Irrigation • Infrastructure Climate change vulnerability Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness) Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops) Globalization vulnerability Elements of vulnerability profiles

18. Vulnerability profiles Adaptive capacity + Climate sensitivity Adaptive capacity + Trade sensitivity

19. Cyclones map

20. Jagatsingpur, Orissa • cyclones, river floods (loss of mangroves) • high population density • acute poverty • proximity to port • Jhalawar, Rajasthan • drought prone • low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure • Chitradurga, Karnataka • water scarcity • proximity to city • contract farming and exports • Raipur, Chattisgarh • rice belt of central India • crop diversification • low literacy, infrastructure • Anantapur, • Andhra Pradesh • semi-arid • response of groundnut farmers to import competition

21. Understanding vulnerability:Local and community focus

22. Lakhakheri Umat: rainfed farming only Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks Landless labourers – seasonal migration Small/marginal farmers – temporary coping measures No long-term adaptive solutions Anghora: head-end of dam Access to irrigation opens up range of coping options Much better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets) Mixed farming of oranges and soybean A tale of two villages 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Insurance Sell cattle Credit/ loan Use of DRVs Sell cattle Insurance Credit/ loan Use of DRVs Seasonal migration Use available stocks Shift in cropping pattern Seasonal migration Labour (govt or private) Less water-intensive crop Use available stocks Less water-intensive crop Shift in cropping pattern Labour (govt or private Small (1-2 ha) Semi-medium (2-4 ha) Marginal (<1 ha) Landless

23. Timannahalli Mahadevpura 60 16 14 50 12 5 40 10 30 8 41 3 6 20 9 4 6 10 2 9 1 3 0 0 farmers educated farmers educated farmers educated farmers educated above Xth below Xth above Xth below Xth standard standard standard standard mechanised non-mechanised Education, mechanisation, and cropping pattern fruits and plantation crops coconut maize ragi 4% 6% 2% groundnut 11% arecanut 4% 2% 34% jowar gram 5% groundnut 48% paddy 9% sericulture 10% ragi sunflower 10% sunflower 11% jowar paddy onion 13% 4% 10% 17%

24. Addressing vulnerability

25. Incorporating adaptation thinking in policymaking: some examples • Incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmers • Credit, insurance, subsidies, HYVs • Cross-sectoral dialogue • Tail-end villages in command area • Agri-based industries and markets • Rice mills, purchase ceilings, Nagari-dhuvraj, jute mills • Support for traditional options • Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in homestead • Development is the best form of adaptation • Education, health facilities, electricity, roads

26. Developing adaptation efforts • Effective adaptation strategies require understanding of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability • Climate change does not occur in isolation – multiple stresses • Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change • Adapting to climate variability and climate change • Adaptation and sustainable development policies

27. Future research directions • Further exploration of multi-tiered research approach • Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events • Application to other sectors / specific regions • Econometric modelling of determinants of vulnerability • Focus on policy aspects at level of state departments (including cross-sectoral issues) • Capacity building and demonstration of adaptation options

28. Project supported by www.teriin.org