Adding an Analytic Process to CABY Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Actions

1. Adding an Analytic Process to CABY Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Actions CABY Planning Meeting Sept 6 2006 David Yates and David Purkey

2. Recall why we are here and what we will need from you • Provide modeling support for the CABY • WEAP- A framework for water resource and aquatic ecosystem evaluation that can include climate change • Need to know how to prioritize our efforts to address your questions • Acquisition of data (times series of inflows, reservoir releases/levels, operational logic, service area, info on PG&E system)

3. Proposed timeline

4. Integrated Water Resource Management • Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning model • GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface. • Physical simulation of water demands and supplies. • Additional simulation modeling: user-created variables and modeling equations. • Scenario management capabilities. • Seamless watershed hydrology, water quality and financial modules • Developed by the SEI-US

5. What we have done so far.

6. WEAP Relevancy to CABY Goals, Objectives, and Strategies • Water Supply Working Group • Water Quality Working Group • Environmental and Habitat Protection Model cannot directly satisfy stated goals and objectives Can assess potential effectiveness of individual strategies and actions Can identify potential synergies or tradeoffs between strategies and actions

7. An Analytical Engine to evaluate GOSAs A SF American, EID Example

8. GOSA- Goals • Achieve sustainable surface and ground water supplies. • Provide multiple benefits from management of water resources, diversions and infrastructure.

9. GOSA- Objectives 1. Improve storage capacity. 7. Manage recreation to minimize impacts to watershed resources. 11. Manage water infrastructure to optimize in-stream temperatures. 12. Investigate effects of drought and climate change and need for water management strategies.

10. GOSA- Strategies and Actions Monitoring • Conduct research and modeling to describe and understand watershed dynamics and promote integrated and sustainable water management practices. • Monitor temperature and water quality impacts of flow releases on native fisheries.

11. GOSA- Strategies and Actions Land Use Coordination • Explore reservoir management for reservoir and downstream water temperature improvements. • Develop and implement strategies for river and infrastructure management that provide environmental and recreational benefits, especially in critically dry years.

12. GOSA- Strategies and Actions Water Supply Reliability • Assess and develop new storage opportunities to meet long-term water needs. • Develop a regional drought plan. • Perform water availability and demand analysis (need to define reliability).

13. GOSA- Strategies and Actions Environmental Restoration and Preservation • Design and implement strategies that benefit native fish and aquatic biota populations. Climate Change • Develop a CABY-wide adaptive management plan. • Update drought management plans to incorporate climate change scenarios.

14. A (contrived) EID GOSA Strategies & Action • Create adaptable IFR’s throughout Project 184 to maintain “healthy” flows • Create “Pulse” flows requirements below Reservoirs to mimic spring peak flows • Increase forebay storage and EID canal capacity to increase safe yield from hydropower facility • A Critical EID Question: “Will we be able to meet our IFR’s and still divert enough water to meet demands and generate hydro revenue”?

15. Reservoir Mngmt to improve downstream water temperature Infrastructure Mngmt to provide Rec and ecosystem benefits Availability and Demand Analsysis Qualitative Quantitative

16. Reservoir Mngmt to improve downstream water temperature Infrastructure Mngmt to provide Rec and ecosystem benefits Availability and Demand Analsysis EID’s Project 184 Condition 31: Detailed Instream flow requirements by season and water year Condition 52: Detailed lake level targets and release rules Qualitative Quantitative

17. The SF American in WEAP

18. Watershed represented as a set of sub-catchments • 19 Catchments • 7 Rivers • 6 Reservoirs • 9 Instream flow requirements • EID Demands and Infrastructure • Operating Logic (1) 2

19. Model Building Example: Minimum IFRs below reservoir - Legal description of instream flow requirements based on time of year and water year type (a report) - Pulse Flow: 5-day pulse corresponds to peak streamflow

20. 1st, build a model of the water year type

21. Then use the expression editor to describe and view those rules

22. Below Reservoir monthly IFR Spring Pulse IFR

23. Current IFR ~ 50 CFS year-round Future IFR – Dependent upon both time-of-year and water-year-type • EID diversion for hydropower and water supply, Critical Decision Point in the EID System 2

24. WEAP Simulations are Built Around “Scenarios”

25. Calibration ResultsWeekly Avg. (’92-02)

26. Current and Future Environmental IFR’s reflected over ’82 to ‘92

27. A Simple Climate “Change” Experiment +Δ2Cº Incrementally added to the entire temperature record for all 19 sub-catchments

28. Weekly Avg. streamflow below the EID Diversion

29. Avg. Total Reservoir Storage

30. Percent Avg. Flow Requirement Coverage

31. Water Temperatures

32. Water Temperatures Relative to Current

33. Revisit: What we will need from you • Need to know how to prioritize our efforts to address your questions • Acquisition of data (times series of inflows, reservoir releases/levels, operational logic, service area, info on PG&E system)