1 / 12

Severe Winter Weather Outage Analysis

This resource provides an analysis of severe winter weather and its impact on unit outages. It includes a brief history, ERCOT assessment, and conclusions for procuring additional online generation capacity.

bennieh
Download Presentation

Severe Winter Weather Outage Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Severe Winter Weather Resource Outage Analysis Chad Thompson Operations Working Group September 24 2014

  2. Background • ROS and WMS have been tasked with evaluating early RUC activity in anticipation of severe winter weather and observed unit start-up failures, trips, and derates • WMS created a RUC Task Force to also investigate early RUC instructions • ERCOT was asked to look at the data to determine if correlations to temperature and unit outages exists • ERCOT believes there is a need to procure additional online generation capacity in anticipation of severe winter weather

  3. Brief History • Lesson Learned from Feb 2011 Event was to bring units on-line before freezing weather hits (Jan 23) • Alternative fuel commitments need to be made as early as possible (preparation for gas curtailments) (Feb 6) • Some fuel restrictions cannot be predicted (Feb 7)

  4. ERCOT Assessment • ERCOT investigated concepts with input from stakeholders • New Forced Outages* VS Wind Chill • New Forced Outages* VS Daily Wind Chill changes • New Forced Outages* VS Daily Min Temperature changes • Data used is for the 2013/2014 Winter Season (Dec-Feb) • Given the geographic diversity of the ERCOT Grid, results were separated based on Load Areas *Note: Data used is from ERCOT Outage Scheduler

  5. ERCOT Assessment • Background on Data • Daily Maximum MW that were forced out • Coldest observed Wind Chill • Lowest observed Air Temperature • Note that these 3 items may not have been coincidental

  6. Forced Outages VS. Wind Chill

  7. Forced Outages VS. Daily Wind Chill Change

  8. Forced Outages VS. Daily Air Temperature Change

  9. Aggregated Values

  10. Observations • Comparing air temperature or wind chill changes does not show much correlation • Daily min wind chill does show an increase in new forced outages as wind chill decreases

  11. Conclusions • When the wind chill is expected to be below freezing, a minimum of 600 MW of additional online generation capacity should be procured • 1300 MW, when wind chill is expected to be below 200F • This accounts for the average amount of new generation forced outages, and is not intended to account for extreme events like Jan 6 or Feb 6

More Related