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Reliability Unit Commitment Chad Thompson Manager, Operations Support

Explore the impact of cold weather days and dynamic load forecasts on ERCOT's Reliability Unit Commitment actions in Winter 2014, highlighting challenges faced and lessons learned. Discuss fuel restrictions, temporal constraints, and peak demand challenges.

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Reliability Unit Commitment Chad Thompson Manager, Operations Support

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  1. Reliability Unit Commitment Chad Thompson Manager, Operations Support Joint Operations Working Group & Congestion Management Working Group Meeting ERCOT Public March 19, 2014

  2. Reliability Unit Commitment • Inquiries into ERCOT’s RUC actions Winter 2014 • ERCOT Operating procedures have not changed with regards to committing generation • Challenges: • Unusually large number of cold days in 2014 • Dynamic load forecast due to significant changes in weather forecast (polar vortex) • Temporal Constraints impact RUC timing • Fuel restriction uncertainty • Icing/Freezing impacts on Wind Output

  3. Cold Days Comparison • This winter experienced nearly double the number of cold weather days compared with 2012/13, and 2.5 times as many compared with 2011/12 • Dallas experienced 22 days above the normal number of days below freezing • Brownsville experienced 7 times as many days below 40 degrees as 2012/13

  4. Cold Weather Impact Challenge

  5. Load Forecast Challenge

  6. Load Forecast Challenge

  7. Load Forecast Challenge

  8. Load Forecast Challenge

  9. Peak Demand Challenge Jan 6 Jan 27/28 Feb 6/7 Jan 23/24

  10. Temporal Constraint ChallengeHE08 Jan 6th 2014

  11. 2014 RUC Actions • Jan 6 – None for capacity • Jan 23 – 3 units committed from HE1-4. These units were self-scheduled to come on at HE5. • A lessons learned from the Feb 2011 event from FERC/NERC was for ERCOT to get units online before the freezing temperatures hit • Feb 6 – 2 units committed; one on alternative fuel. These were due to the 4GW of gas curtailments, icing, and media appeal in effect.

  12. Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by Weather Zone – Feb. 2014

  13. RUC Commitments by Reason

  14. Fuel Restriction Challenge • ERCOT plans around fuel restrictions, as ERCOT receives restriction/de-rate notifications from QSEs, day before or day of the occurrence • On February 7, many restrictions/de-rates occurred in real-time without prior notice

  15. Options • RUC vs SASM • Increased AS may result in more on-line MWs held in reserve, when the need is additional resources connected to the grid • RUC in advanced of need • Bring units on in advance of operating hour needed in RUC, or bring on-line before planned start time (lesson learned from previous events)

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