22 July 2013

1. U.S. IOOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed IOOS COASTAL OCEAN MODELING TESTBED (COMT) Rick Luettich, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Don Wright, Liz Smith, Southeast Univ. Research Association (SURA) Becky Baltes, NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System Office Rich Signell, US Geological Survey 22 July 2013

2. COMT Beginning “Certain ocean prediction system development and evaluation activities involve federal, academic and private sector participants,……. Examples include: …..; design and operation of model testbeds (“model evaluation environments”);…” Ocean.US. 2008. The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Modeling and Analysis Workshop Report, Ocean.US Publication No. 18, 21 pp.

3. COMT Mission Targeted R&D to accelerate the transfer of scientific and technical advancements to improved operational products and services

4. COMT Mission Targeted R&D to accelerate the transfer of scientific and technical advancements to improved operational products and services • Research to Operations

5. COMT Mission Targeted R&D to accelerate the transfer of scientific and technical advancements to improved operational products and services • Research to Operations • Operations to Research

6. COMT Characteristics • Operational broadly interpreted = predictive? • Quantitative data on the behavior and implementation requirements of models • Organized archive of observations, model inputs and model results • Tools that leverage or define community standards - efficient access, visualization, skill assessment and other evaluation of models • Research environment where researchers and operational agencies can work together

7. COMT V1.0 Coastal Inundation Gulf & Atlantic Coast Led by Southeast Universities Research Association (SURA) 5 teams, 64 scientists/analysts Multi-sector engagement (federal agency, academia, industry) started 6/1/2010 21 manuscripts submitted for JGR Special Issue 2/2013 10 accepted 7/2013 http://testbed.sura.org Rick Luettich, UNC-CH Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of Mexico John Harding, USM Katja Fennel, UD Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay Carl Friedrichs, VIMS Marjy Friedrichs, VIMS Cyber Infrastructure Eoin Howlett, ASA Sara Graves, UAH Testbed Advisory Evaluation Group Rich Signell, USGS

8. Estuarine Hypoxia – Chesapeake Bay Project Lead: Carl Friedrichs -> Marjy Friedrichs, VIMS Evaluate coupled hydrodynamic and water quality models in use or in consideration for use for operations (incl. regulation) • 5 Hydrodynamic models • 5 Biogeochemical / DO models • Improvements in model skill for predicting time & location of hypoxia • Ensemble mean better skill predicting “dead zone” • Transition of simple DO model to NOAA CSDL CBOFS model

9. Shelf Hypoxia – Northern Gulf of Mexico Project Lead: John Harding, NGI -> Katja Fennel, Dalhousie Evaluate and advance a coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model for nowcast / forecasts of shelf physical and ecosystem processes. • Initiation / evolution of hypoxic events on synoptic timescales • Improved skill in hydrologic conditions, not in dissolved oxygen • Hypoxia sensitive to stratification and biogeochemical submodel • Considerable sensitivity to uncertainty in physical model forcings TAMU ROMS NOAA NGOM NRL IASNFS NCOM NRL/FSU HYCOM

10. Storm Surge / Inundation Project Lead: Rick Luettich, UNC Evaluate the behavior and implementation requirements of coastal models of tides, surge, waves, inundation • Gulf of Maine – extratropical storms in 2005, 2007, 2010 • Nested unstructured grids Nested • Models • FVCOM/SWAVE • SELFE/WWM • ADCIRC/SWAN • WWIII • Wave-current interaction major impact on coastal circulation 1.67 km

11. Storm Surge / Inundation • Gulf of Mexico – hurricanes Rita (2005), Ike (2008) • Models (2D & 3D) • FVCOM/SWAVE • SELFE/WWM • ADCIRC/SWAN • SLOSH/SWAN • Significance of “Surge Forerunner” - Hurricane Ike • Unstructured models comparable results, ADCIRC fastest & most features • SLOSH overall fastest, least accurate • 2D is fine, horizontal resolution is critical

12. Cyber-Infrastructure • Project Lead: Eoin Howlett, ASA & Sarah Graves, UAH • Develop data standards, particularly for unstructured grids • Develop a testbed data archive and tools • access to observed data, forcing, model input • deliver results for model analysis, comparison, visualization, and evaluation – NCTOOLBOX, IMEDS • capabilities to manipulate model output on unstructured grids • project web portal & front end for data archive

13. COMT 2.0 – Status • Spring / Summer 2012 • COMT Terms of Reference – NOAA IOOS • Identification of Priorities – NOAA IOOS • December 2012 • FFO by NOAA IOOS – with priorities • SURA solicited Letters of Interest, ~30 received • January 2013 • SURA encouraged 16 project proposals • 14 proposals received, independently reviewed by SRAC • February 2013 • 5 - 2yr projects selected for SURA’s proposal ($3.7M / 2 yrs) • May 2013 • SURA responded to comments from NOAA IOOS review • June 2013 • COMT approved for 2 years, probable start date 9/1/2013, funding unspecified.

14. COMT 2.0 – Proposed Projects Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting PI - Marjy Friedrichs (VIMS/W&M) Integration of US West Coast Operational Coastal and Ocean Models PI - Alex Kuropov (Oregon State University). Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands Surge and Wave Inundation Predictions PI - Andre Van der Westhuysen (NOAA/NCEP) Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecological Forecasting PI - Katja Fennel (Dalhousie University). “Cyberinfrastructure” PI - Eoin Howlette (ASA).