The Future of European Regions in the perspective of global change Warzaw, June 9, 2007

1. A Bridge towards the Mid-XXI Century The Future of European Regions in the perspective of global change Warzaw, June 9, 2007 Jean-Marie ROUSSEAUjeanmarie.a.rousseau@gmail.com

2. How to improve the foundationsof the Regio Futures Programme? What is at stake? • Antony Kuklinski, • “The XXI century is an age of uncertainties and challenges • never experienced in the history of human kind.” • “In this context the mission to outline regional development • scenarios for the years 2020-2050 is maybe an impossible mission.” • Thus, it proves worthy to introduce some evidences about the relevance and the necessity of such Pro- and Iterspective studies, which could be the anchor within the current Third Warsaw Conference. • … As by contrast with Prospective, Iterspective is an iterative exploration between the future and the present, in order to make both the future and the present reciprocally enlighten & understanding each other.

3. Since Statistics Know Figures,but definitely Ignore Futures… Regio Futures Programme • The evaluation of the volume “The future of European Regions” • primo – the megaspaces of the European Union, • secundo – the European regions as fields of path dependency and path creation, • tertio – creativity and innovation as dynamic forces in the development of European Regions, • quarto – the New Regionalism in Europe. • The vision of the intellectual and institutional infrastructure of the Regio Futures Programme, as validated by A. Kuklinski with a vision to be tested in three fields: • Conceptual foundation, by wondering whether this vision is demonstratinga proper scope of validity and consistency; • Methodological foundation, about a sufficient set of trajectories as instruments to process the empirical and prospective evidence to answer the fundamental questions of RFP; • Institutional foundation, for outlining a sufficient set of managerial solutions able to turn the general idea of RFP into a feasible reality.

4. Only does Demography prove useful and credible? What will be the useful instruments? • Among all the statistical sciences we can benefit from, in such an exercise aiming at building a solid REGIO FUTURES PROGRAMME, only Demography proves useful & (even weakly) credible with available data in forecasted ‘deep-thinks’. • Demographic Decline and Ageing Society in Europe are unfortunately the tangible data we depend on for building the first piles of such a bridge to reach the Future of the Mid-XXI century. Data put different stresses on regions, at least to a larger extent than in the past, but could also be sources of opportunity for preparing the Future of the European regions. TRAJECTORIES . Methodological trajectory Diagnosis - Visions - Scenarios - Strategies . Panoramic trajectory Holistic(regarding Region as a whole) Synoptical(overview diagram)

5. Might European Regions • Slightly Take Leave • from History? 2.Place matters because People matter! 3.Being either Green & Grow and /orGrey & Grow? A Bridge Towards the Mid-XXIst Century

6. Part 1 European Regions could loose their Influence and Impact… • Patrick Buchanan, ”As a growing population has long been a mark of healthy nations and rising civilizations, falling population have been a sign of nations and civilization in decline.“ Pontiff Benedict XVI (50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome), "One must unfortunately note that Europe seems to be going down a road which could lead it to take its leave from history.” Inversion of the population pyramid foretell a general aging, probably implying, mainly in Europe, major economic, social & political problems.

7. A Burden of support falling on a Shrinking Population of Working Age… • Dirk Ahner, Director General of DG REGIO, “For each person who is 65 years old or older, there are currently 4 people in working age. By 2050, this ratio will be halved, with a score declining until 1 to 2. Some 30 regions in the EU have already reached this ratio, and about 20 other regions have only 3 working age residents per person of 65 years or older.” • Jean-Claude Chesnais (Vieillesse des Nations, 2001), evoked "the revenge of Asia", supporting that the era of the "dis-westernalisation" of the world yet begun prior to WWII. • Liguria and Molise in Italy, Voreio Aigaio in Greece, Corse in France, Severozapaden in Bulgaria have an old age dependency rate over 60%. • Could we just talk about: a mere “Greying Europe”? 

8. Old-age dependency rates, 2005 Inactive population aged 65+ / total employed (%) < 29.51 29.51-34.50 34.50-38.85 38.85-45.71 >=45.71 No data Effective old-age dependency rate, 2005

9. Place mattersbecause People matter! Part 2 • Edward J. Malecki, “social capital suggests and reinforces openness to the ideas of others, which promotes learning…” “Regional cultures vary in the degree to which people – individually and within their organisations – trust and interact with one another.” • By 2025, Saxony-Anhalt expects to lose nearly half a million more people, and a lot of young workers have left… Thus, new forms of social and societal ‘laboratories’ for coping with demographic decline that will soon afflict other regions in the whole Europe.” • Today still, at a comparable technical level, the demography plays a significant role in the competition between regions of the world, with a main concern about European Regions…

10. Demographic Drift of Continents • During the period 2005-2050, the UNO foresees that eight countries will concentrate 50 % of the population growth: • India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, • Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda,Ethiopia, • the United States, • and China. • In 2005, the number of inhabitants of the EU27 is about 500 millions, • while in the United States, the population exceeds 300 millions. • On the horizon 2050, the demographic size of the EU27 • will have fallen again around its level of 1960: 400 millions, • … below that of the US population which should be around 500 millions. • This will in the long term become a problem for European societies, for which a solution must be found!

11. What is finally at Stake? • The population of 51 countries, among • which Germany, Italy, France & Japan, • could be lower in 2050 than it was in 2005. • Some scholars dispute the use of the immigration • to prevent at least the shortages of manpower, while • the report of United Nations (“The migrations of replacement“) • proposes the policy makers migration as the only panacea. • The examination of the GDP and its parities of purchasing power • brings a new lighting on the distribution of the Wealth and • led to a reclassification of countries, for example, • China passes from the 7th in the 2nd world rank, behind the US, • and India from the 11th in the 8th rank. • Should first the European governments wonder about the reasons making • difficult or impossible to have & educate their children?

12. Europe needs well Educated Young People • Dirk Ahner, DG REGIO, reminds us this demographic development in Europe as a main concern: “already a third of the 263 regions in the EU are confronted with population decline due to negative natural growth & net out-migration.” “Overall, we expect a decline of the working age population from 2011 onwards . Initially, this reduction could be offset by increased employment rates, but after 2017, overall employment is likely to decline as well.” • Jan Muehlfeit, Chairman of EuropeMicrosoft Corporation: • “Young people are especially important for our business and • for our society, because young people are often the first to see • the possibility of technology & innovation – to create it or adapt it.” • “The IT sector has repeatedly • been reinvented by young people…”

13. Will European Regions possess Collective Means for the Control of their Fate? • Europe obviously yet suffers from a shortage of SMEs, in particular with regard to the US. • Europe is now one of the world’s locations where the public sector is the heaviest and where the private initiative is the most penalised. Specific measures should be taken for revitalising the economy, as it is usually practiced in the US. • Edward Malecki arguing that social capital is essential for Europe, first advocates for a knowledge economy, since “Social capital is part of a region’s ‘collective personality’ , comprised of individual personalities, social & business interactions and networks, market structures & innovativeness & entrepreneurshipswhich all are products of regions with social capital”.

14. Being either “Green & Grow” and/or “Grey & Grow”? Part 3 • The EC and its MS perceive such a challenge as ways of addressing cost effective local service provision, as well as validating the experience & competence of older people. • Should we wonder whether it is sufficient to consider just building on the past and regarding how to prepare the very present & the short term future, among a more and more skeptical Europe? • All parties are concerned about the increasing incidence of ‘délocalisation’, and new ways of mutual commitment of regional stakeholders may suggest how to turn a Problem into a Project!

15. Either Desperate “No Future” orProactively Researching New Means of Renewal? • On one side of the Atlantic Ocean, the “Old Europe", whereby the pensioners and the persons who take early retirement (median age: 53 year) will dominate; • On the other one, a young, we can observe the US as an innovative and hosting country (average 36-40 years old). • While the Europeans entered a phase of torpor, pessimism, • the Americans kept their thirst of the future, and their will of renewal, with an unprecedented cultural power and a world radiation, which fascinate and attract elites and middle classes of the whole world. • Greying European populations and, consequently, • all the European regions could meet such a commitment, • by building an export-oriented and tech-centered economy, • independently of any “conflict of generations”

16. A Smart Control of one’s Fatewith a European Green Renaissance • Stuart Rosenfeld indeed relates that in the US, as many successful regions have become too unaffordable & congested for many young entrepreneurs and high tech companies… for example, • California companies, entrepreneurs, and job seekers are • drawn to the less crowded and lower cost mountain states… • as the result of urbanities looking for a different lifestyle. • But also, “BeingGreen and Grow” in a changing world, • encouraging innovation by opening a window to the future, • could push European regions to draw mutual benefits • in terms of sustainable development, eco-development • all over their territories and within new rising markets. • This process could be driven by a strong bottom-up movement keen to empower players at the regional levels, to see more consistent founding available for a range of local economic, social & environmental initiatives.

17. Referring back to the Historical Sequences of Antony Kuklinski… • Marcel Gauchet, something new happened between 1750 and 1850: the passage to a society which doesn’t content with changing but which gets organised to change, which spreads with the aim of its own production of a long time schedule, which falls over the past of the tradition towards the future of the self-constitution of the human community. • THE FIVE TRANSFORMATIONS OF THE POLISH SPACE • The years 1815 - 1914 • The years 1918 - 1939 • The years 1945 - 1989 • The years 1990 - 2010 • The years 2010 - 2050 • Before 1914, Poland was eradicated from the map by the three imperial • powers of Russia, Germany and Austria. So, the Polish space has not • existed in the framework of an independent state, but however existed as • an object transformed by the institutions of the three imperial powers…

18. A Fork in the European Roadmapfor “Being Grey & Grow” • Good governance could help liberate entrepreneurial spirit with a Partnership strategy which brings people together around complex multi-dimensional issues, while coming together and building Trust can liberate enterprise and underpin Risk-taking, and integrating this within multi-level governance which adds sensitivity and creativity to the whole system. • Successful European regions will be those which • are yet able to invest in people not short-run strategies, • “reaching down” to the local for taping a well of • creativity for public participation and enterprise, and • then demonstrate a number of key characteristics • including long term capacities of the so-called • “Innovation-Incubation-Internationalisation”, • such as…

19. Accumulation of Knowledge & Skills throughan holistic approach & cross-fertilized trajectories • Entrepreneurial skills particularly, • in part through the strong interaction • between local production & local education system • to be translated in terms of Innovation. • Sensitive support from regional government that • that acknowledges, enhances & promotes enterprises • without over-regulating and thus stifling & dynamising • the creation of new products & services as well as • new enterprises with initiatives of Incubation. • Identification of rising markets whom production synergies can be exploited with, thanks to smart regional policies of Internationalisation.

20. Regarding the Core Thesis of the Regio Futures Programme According to Kuklinski, the fundamental goal of Regio Futures Programme is to design the intellectual infrastructureswhich develop self programming mind and capacity of the region, with three foundations: - Knowledge – Imagination – Freedom – The important task of the Region Futures Programme is to create an integrated trajectory, inspired by Knowledge, Imagination and New ideas emerging from Science & Culture and through their practical application in Innovation, Incubation and Internationalisation of our Regions… • As a result, Regio Futures Programme should • enable shared learning as well as benchmarking • and exchanging good practice among European regions. • As much, it could enable European Regions to together • verify and crystallise the key success factors and lessons • from experience & these devise recommendations.

21. Trusting a Bridge Over Troubled Waters and Threatening Skies Jean-Marie ROUSSEAUjeanmarie.a.rousseau@gmail.com