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Geohazards Supersites

Geohazards Supersites A partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental research. CEOS action DI-09-01a_4 GEO task leader: Falk AMELUNG(1) and Wolfgang LENGERT(2). (1) University of Miami (2) ESA. Geohazards Supersites. Showcase at GEO plenary. Need data!.

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Geohazards Supersites

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  1. Geohazards Supersites A partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental research CEOS action DI-09-01a_4 GEO task leader: Falk AMELUNG(1) and Wolfgang LENGERT(2) (1)University of Miami (2)ESA

  2. Geohazards Supersites Showcase at GEO plenary. Need data! • Outline: • What are “Geohazard Supersites”” • Benefits • Achievements/ Haiti examples • Challenges • Expectations from CEOS

  3. What are the Geohazard Supersites? GEO initiative to better understand the geophysical processes causing geohazards (earthquakes and volcanoes). Global partnership of scientists, satellite and in-situ data providers (multi-sensor InSAR, seismic, GPS, complete data sets!) Data can support national authorities and policy makers in risk assessment and mitigation strategies. disaster mitigation

  4. Which are the Geohazard Supersites? Earthquake Supersites: Tokyo, Los Angeles, Vancouver/Seattle, Istanbul Volcano Supersites: Hawaii, Mt. Etna, Campi Flegreii/Vesuvius Event Supersites: Haiti (Hispaniola), Chile Wenchuan

  5. Why is collaboration required? • 30 year earthquake probability for Supersites: • - Tokyo: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock, • (1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities) • - Istanbul: 62% for M≥6.7 with ~3000 fatalities • - Southern California: 37% for shaking associated with a M≥7.5 (smaller for Los Angeles) • Vancouver/Seattle: 10% for M≥9.0 • ~80% probability for M≥7.0 event with ≥3000 fatalities • in one of the Supersites in the next 30 years

  6. Benefits new applications justifying the need for new satellite resources user requirements for advanced observation systems (combination of satellite and ground) For society: • better science of geohazards • improve volcano and earthquake monitoring • direct dialogue with users (smarter satellite tasking). • decade-long multi-satellite data readily available • (digital world heritage for Earth Observation). • coordination of SAR observation systems • (e.g. L-band for earthquake, X,C-band after earthquake) For satellite operators:

  7. JAXA CSA ESA DLR … Space Agencies (CEOS) In-situ data providers Governance Structure of Consortium GEO task leadership Scientific Advisory Committee Chair Vice Chair Steering Group (Data Provider members) Research Institutions (Data User members) Supersite Office (Unavco) Science Community (Geohazard CoP) - - - - -- - -- - Point of contact (1 per Supersite) Legend: Election Day to day business

  8. Science Objectives • For a given Supersite: • interseismic deformation  earthquake potential. • Daily to sub-daily SAR observations: • ALOS: 2 images/44 days • TSX: 2 images/11 days • RSAT-2: 2 images/24 days • CSM: 2 images/4 days • Envisat/ERS 2 images /35 days • Sentinel: 2 images/12 days • more satellites  ultraprecise measurements (1 mm) •  more chances for rapid interferograms •  “virtual constellation” for ground deformation high-res optical for crustal earthquakes (Spot-5, Pleiades)

  9. Science Objectives: (1) Vancouver/Seattle • Magnitude 9.0 megathrust quake expected in next 300 years. • Image surface displacement associated with Episodic Slip and Tremor (ETS)

  10. Science Objectives: (2) Tokyo • Interseismic deformation  fault slip rates, earthquake potential 1923 Great Kanto earthquake Envisat, processing by IREA, Naples 30 year earthquake probability: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock, (1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities) M7.9, 140,000 fatalities RSAT-2 interferogram the day after Tokyo earthquake?

  11. Science Objectives: (3) Wenchuan InSAR, GPS and seismic  new information on stress relaxation and transfer • Benefits: • better understand large continental earthquakes: first quake after 3000 years: isolated event? • promote data sharing in China (GPS, seismic, SAR). • capacity building through data access •  multiple PhD thesis. Shen et al., 2009

  12. Science Objectives: (4) Hawaii • Deformation due to arrival of new magma  forecast activity • Resolve flank deformation  need daily SAR! SE flank time series 1 Feb 2010 slow-slip event P. Lundgren, Jet Propulsion Laboratory TerraSAR-X data from Supersites

  13. Achievements • Cyberinfrastructure developed: single entry 'one-stop shop' supporting simultaneous large-scale data access • White Paper version 2 (3 splinter sessions geohazards CoP ) • Support from in-situ data provider • ESA data available for all Supersites (> 10,000 scenes, natural laboratories initiated: complete ESA data sets for Japan, Western US) • DLR data arriving • Radarsat-2 tasked • 12 Alos-PalSAR images for Haiti, Chile • Geological Surveys start using data (USGS, INGV) • Haiti earthquake: global scientific collaboration

  14. The Haiti example • ALOS-PalSAR data provided • day after image acquisition • Provided critical information • on rupture extend. • Reassurance to population, rescue organizations • U Cornell civil engineers up’ed seismic safety standards. • Haiti meeting organized in • Miami prior to UN donors • Conference (relocation of • Port-au-Prince put to rest)

  15. Next: Hispaniola Supersite Hispaniola Seismic Hazard USGS open file report • Septentrional fault: • GPS: ~13 mm/yr slip rate • Last earthquake about 1230 A.D. • (8 m displacement accumulated) •  magnitude 7.5-8 overdue! • seismic hazard very high in • Dominican Republic! • minimal seismic network (2 people)

  16. Next: Hispaniola Supersite • Goal: • to better estimate seismic hazard in Santiago, Dom. Rep. (2 million people) • How? • Use multi-satellite PSInSAR to resolve strain accumulation along Septentrional fault. • Space data: • TerraSAR-X, Alos, ERS2, Sentinel-1 • need Cosmo-Skymed and • Radarsat-2. • In-situ data: • Coordination with planned • GPS network • Results in 2 years!. Expected signal, 1 cm/yr USGS open file report

  17. Challenges • ALOS data provision (L-band critical for event Supersites). • Radarsat-1,2 data provision • Cosmo-Skymed unclear • no event Supersites established for Iceland volcano, New Zealand earthquake (ESA data available through “Natural Laboratory”)

  18. Expectations from CEOS Plenary Review of White Paper by Space Agencies Seek positive response to data request Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI)(ESA, DLR through regular proposals) Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon as possible (GEO Plenary showcase). Fullfill complete data request in 2011  need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San Francisco, Izu-Oshima)

  19. Data request (White Paper Supplement) As soon as possible

  20. Data request (White Paper Supplement) . 1st semester 2011 2nd semester 2011

  21. Expectations from CEOS Plenary Review of White Paper by Space Agencies Seek positive response to data request Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI)(ESA, DLR through regular proposals) Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon as possible (GEO Plenary showcase). Fullfill complete data request in 2011  need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San Francisco, Izu-Oshima)

  22. Thank you! • http://supersites.earthobservations.org • famelung@rsmas.miami.edu

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